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Shipping nickles in 2020 [10-100 Zoom] Shipping nickles in 2020 [10-100 Zoom]

03-18-2020 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IMaWIZARD
I have to say I enjoy reading your sorta theory update, and I always learn something!
Nice to hear man! Hope you get a nice finish to march :-) Mirin' your volume and results.
03-19-2020 , 02:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
I've done some more solver work and focused on BTNvBB SRP where flop and turn gets checked through and we decide if we should bluff the river. When we as BB have a combo OTR that we are unsure if has enough showdown value, we would like to have something objective to base our decision on and not just blindly let the RNG keep us balanced.


FLOP: Q86 TURN: 2 RIVER: 2

Flop and turn gets checked through and we have a decision with our KT combos.

Solver likes to:
100% check: KT
100% bet: KT

50% bet: If one or

This is because KT blocks many Kx and Tx combos that are give-ups for villain because villain can't blindly start betting KJ type of hands every time, and villain will have less AK and AT that just wants to get to showdown, while the AT and AK with and bet the flop or turn more often. So by having these suits in our hand we unblock more give-ups than the alternative combo.
Nice , here i have a good start to know when to bluff if it goes check check and not just randomly bet 55% PSB because villian didnt bet. Im trying to figure out what lines are mostly blufflines also but this was a good start to know when to bluff river when that line is taken...
03-19-2020 , 06:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fubar_TV
Nice , here i have a good start to know when to bluff if it goes check check and not just randomly bet 55% PSB because villian didnt bet. Im trying to figure out what lines are mostly blufflines also but this was a good start to know when to bluff river when that line is taken...
Yeah it's nice to have something to base your decision on other than "i have air I bet".

When the board generally is good for us we bet all hands without showdown value pretty much. Like on 85238 no flush possible.

When a board is good for villains range we need to be more selective, on like AK727 no flush possible. And we "have to" give up some 0 showdown value hands especially when we block villains give ups. The EV differences is not huge between a bet or check with these hands, but it still makes us 100% bet or check some combos based on the suits we hold.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-19-2020 at 07:06 AM.
03-19-2020 , 07:33 AM
Another interesting thing I've looked at is how cbet sizing affects the game-tree BTNvBB in SRP.

FLOP: T24

When BTN cbets small: BTN's range is usually wider
When BB calls - BB calling range might have more Ahi than BTN cbeting range
-> A-K turns are not really good cards for BTN, because BB has a ton of Ahi and overcard floats, while BTN checks some of AK, KQ type of hands.
-> 8-9 turns usually good for BTN because these are usually not in BB flop calling range but they are in BTN cbeting range. BTN also picks up draws on these cards and since BTN bet small he has more 88-99/T8/T9 in his range, and BB rarely has 88/99.
-> Naturally BB wants to x/r more and with hands that have no showdown and that would have a hard time realizing equity. Backdoor equity and gutshots usually.

When BTN cbets big: BTN's range is more polarized
When BB calls - BB calling range has less Ahi and overcards than BTN cbeting range
-> A-K turns are really good for BTN, because BB wont improve any often on these. BTN still checks some AK, KQ type hands but BB now folds a lot of Ax and Kx OTF.
-> 8-9 turns still good cards for BTN but probably not as good as A-K turns. Since BTN bet bigger he will have less T9 and T8.
-> BB wants to x/r less vs a polarized range and want to x/r hands that block bottom set, good top pair hands and that has good backdoor equity. The types of hands that get x/r are somewhat different vs the big bet compared to vs the small bet.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-19-2020 at 07:56 AM.
03-19-2020 , 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
Another interesting thing I've looked at is how cbet sizing affects the game-tree BTNvBB in SRP.

FLOP: T24

When BTN cbets small: BTN's range is usually wider
When BB calls - BB calling range might have more Ahi than BTN cbeting range
-> A-K turns are not really good cards for BTN, because BB has a ton of Ahi and overcard floats, while BTN checks some of AK, KQ type of hands.
-> 8-9 turns usually good for BTN because these are usually not in BB flop calling range but they are in BTN cbeting range. BTN also picks up draws on these cards and since BTN bet small he has more 88-99/T8/T9 in his range, and BB rarely has 88/99.
-> Naturally BB wants to x/r more and with hands that have no showdown and that would have a hard time realizing equity. Backdoor equity and gutshots usually.

When BTN cbets big: BTN's range is more polarized
When BB calls - BB calling range has less Ahi and overcards than BTN cbeting range
-> A-K turns are really good for BTN, because BB wont improve any often on these. BTN still checks some AK, KQ type hands but BB now folds a lot of Ax and Kx OTF.
-> 8-9 turns still good cards for BTN but probably not as good as A-K turns. Since BTN bet bigger he will have less T9 and T8.
-> BB wants to x/r less vs a polarized range and want to x/r hands that block bottom set, good top pair hands and that has good backdoor equity. The types of hands that get x/r are somewhat different vs the big bet compared to vs the small bet.
In the small cbet case: It doesn't mean that A-J arent high EV cards for BTN, but they aren't the highest EV. While in the big bet case they just become better.

EDIT: Oh and there is a difference between A and K-J. K-J are generally always higher EV than A for BTN, because BB has some of the offsuit A2 and A4 that improves and some wheels. More Ax in general.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-19-2020 at 08:39 AM.
03-19-2020 , 08:33 AM
Love this thread - good to see some solid analysis on theoretical spots rather than individual hands.
03-19-2020 , 09:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parsons Grinder
Love this thread - good to see some solid analysis on theoretical spots rather than individual hands.
Thanks man, appreciate that. Theory is fun :--)
03-19-2020 , 11:10 AM
wrt to the T42r hand BTNvsBB - as BTN we should be 2x potting mostly when we bet? So we only have to worry about small cbets when we are in the BB.
03-19-2020 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
wrt to the T42r hand BTNvsBB - as BTN we should be 2x potting mostly when we bet? So we only have to worry about small cbets when we are in the BB.
I don't remember if it was J43r T43r or 943r I simmed when doing this. But there seems to be a significant difference when I look at them now and T43 seems to be the only one with a significant amount of overbetting. Why is that?

I probably should but I never include 2x pot on my sims. I have 33%, 75%, 150% as standard. These are also standard for me in-game. I usually go 150% pot on the obvious OB flop spots and randomize an overbet on textures I'm not 100% sure if OB is a thing too often.

What do you think? Why is T43r the only board of these that have the significant amount of overbets? My sims might have something wrong but I don't think thats the case.
03-19-2020 , 12:24 PM
the sims I have run btn vs bb have me cbet 150% pot on T42r
And we do a lot of overbetting on these T high boards
Similar for double broadway board etc etc
03-19-2020 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IMaWIZARD
the sims I have run btn vs bb have me cbet 150% pot on T42r
And we do a lot of overbetting on these T high boards
Similar for double broadway board etc etc
Yeah double broadways we overbet often and my T32r overbets a significant amount too. But J32r only overbets a really small %. Why is that?
03-19-2020 , 12:32 PM
mate, J high boards are a nightmare haha
Ive ran a lot of sims from different positions and its never really easy to spot rules of thumbs on those J high boards

I just tend to 66% every J high boards from most positions
03-20-2020 , 01:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IMaWIZARD
mate, J high boards are a nightmare haha
Ive ran a lot of sims from different positions and its never really easy to spot rules of thumbs on those J high boards

I just tend to 66% every J high boards from most positions
Haha that's so interesting. Thanks for sharing and I will look in to it!

I usually hate doing something just because I've seen it in the solver. Would be easier to sleep at night if I knew why I did something, also makes later streets easier to play.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-20-2020 at 01:50 AM.
03-20-2020 , 10:08 AM
4b pots have always been kind of question marks for me so I looked at COvBTN 4b spots. Later I will look at SBvBB 4b spots.

Some notes:
- We have a ton of range cbets. Worst boards to cbet are the ones with middling cards.
- We have no range checks but a ton of small betting.
- We want to cbet shove turns with combos that (note: some mixing and I didn't include the most obvious ones like draws):

1) Blocks top pairs [AQ on K382]
2) Blocks villains most obvious good PP's [JT on 9443]
3) Unblock floats + likely turned good FD's [AQ on 7732]
4) If flop is two-tone and the flush highcard is Q or J, we don't want to shove turn with a combo that includes the A (or another TP blocker) in same suit, because that means we block none of villains suited top pairs. If the flop high-card is K, it doesn't matter too much because villain, if villain flats AK preflop, is not limited to the suited combinations. In this example we do NOT want to shove
[AJ on Q382]

- We range cbet almost all A-hi flops. But check almost range on every turn! While on other textures we bet ~35%-65% of range

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-20-2020 at 10:30 AM.
03-20-2020 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
4b pots have always been kind of question marks for me so I looked at COvBTN 4b spots. Later I will look at SBvBB 4b spots.

Some notes:
- We have a ton of range cbets. Worst boards to cbet are the ones with middling cards.
- We have no range checks but a ton of small betting.
- We want to cbet shove turns with combos that (note: some mixing and I didn't include the most obvious ones like draws):

1) Blocks top pairs [AQ on K382]
2) Blocks villains most obvious good PP's [JT on 9443]
3) Unblock floats + likely turned good FD's [AQ on 7732]
4) If flop is two-tone and the flush highcard is Q or J, we don't want to shove turn with a combo that includes the A (or another TP blocker) in same suit, because that means we block none of villains suited top pairs. If the flop high-card is K, it doesn't matter too much because villain, if villain flats AK preflop, is not limited to the suited combinations. In this example we do NOT want to shove
[AJ on Q382]

- We range cbet almost all A-hi flops. But check almost range on every turn! While on other textures we bet ~35%-65% of range
Axx and Kxx are usually textures we like to play 4 full streets of poker on.
03-20-2020 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Axx and Kxx are usually textures we like to play 4 full streets of poker on.
This made me realise how bad i was back then lol. Cbetting 1/3 on A/K high and jamming 80% on brick turn.

I think its just so easy to play vs those huge sizings in 4bp where ranges are so narrow. Using smaller sizing ends up 'caging' way more of V's hands, allows us to vbet thinner., etc. etc. Also makes sense because our bluffs will have low equity on those textures!
03-20-2020 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IMaWIZARD
This made me realise how bad i was back then lol. Cbetting 1/3 on A/K high and jamming 80% on brick turn.

I think its just so easy to play vs those huge sizings in 4bp where ranges are so narrow. Using smaller sizing ends up 'caging' way more of V's hands, allows us to vbet thinner., etc. etc. Also makes sense because our bluffs will have low equity on those textures!
Yeah Lol don't even get me started on how incredibly bad I was back in the day. Or even 4 months ago. I've re-learned poker pretty much from zero since december. Been so much fun so far.

EDIT: still a loooong way to go. That's what makes it so great.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-20-2020 at 02:01 PM.
03-23-2020 , 01:22 AM
YTD:

Winrate: 8bb/100 (6.6evbb/100)

Bankroll sits at a point now where I could take aggressive shots at 50z. Not 100% sure I want to yet, maybe grind in a few 25z stacks more and then go for it

I added one zoom table btw. So I am now playing 3 instead of only 2. It feels very comfortable right now and I still have time to think everything through! This has resulted in me playing more than I would have thought this month.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-23-2020 at 01:27 AM.
03-23-2020 , 02:47 AM
Nice work! Wait until you're comfortable to move up, you don't want to be playing any differently than you are now. I'm on GG and the Zoom steps from 10nl to 50nl so it could be a while for me...
03-23-2020 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parsons Grinder
Nice work! Wait until you're comfortable to move up, you don't want to be playing any differently than you are now. I'm on GG and the Zoom steps from 10nl to 50nl so it could be a while for me...
Thank you! Yeah.. I need to grind 25z for a while still. Don't feel too comfortable yet.

Yeah well there is no hurry unless you have no other income. You will get there, you are doing really good so far!
03-23-2020 , 02:46 PM
Solver adventures part ∞:

I noticed that in spots where we have top pair on a board that favours us, we want to check (or bet smaller) TPTK and TPGK somewhat often when we block obvious cards that are in villains calling range.

In this BTNvBB SRP flop situation we want to be checking or betting small often with a top of range holding when we block villains calling range.

The flop: K52



We go from checking AK 44% or the time to checking AK 60% of the time. Only because we hold the A. We also go almost purely 1/3 OTF when we bet since villains calling range is smaller. It makes sense when we start looking at villains calling range.



This is just a part of villains close to 100% calls OTF with A. It's a lot of combinations. It does not apply to KQo combinations though because there are not nearly as many Q combinations that calls pre and goes ahead and floats the flop.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-23-2020 at 03:13 PM.
03-27-2020 , 05:31 PM
3 street poker breakdown:

We open on the BTN and BB calls. The most common of spots.

Flop comes:
K97

BB checks.

And no, not all Kxx are range bets. This flop gets checked 50% of the time. The reason is that K97r is a bit more connected. Lots of possible straight draws and pairs for the BB.

There are some good things going on for BTN. We have all AA, AK, KK, KQ, 99, 77. BB definitely doesn't have all these hands. When we have a massive nut advantage we want to have overbets. 15% of our range overbets. This is not a clear small bet or overbet board, so we do a little of everything. AK5r is a board that is a clear almost only overbet or check because of a obvious nut advantage where villain is massively capped. 866ss is a clear small bet or check board because of no nut advantage and villain is likely to do a lot of x/raising, and we don't want to bloat the pot with a range that has a nut disadvantage.

BB best hands are K9 (all combos probably), K7s, some 77, 97s and some KQ combos. That's somewhere around 30 combos, so villain can go ahead and raise most of these + some bluffs to balance that out. Depending on our sizing BB x/r about 8-15% OTF.

BTN has many value combinations so we are able to bet often. We decide to bet almost all our straight-draws to the nuts and also mix a lot of hands with backdoor straight/flush -draws as bluffs. The hands that have potential to become nuts on the river are higher frequency bluffs. The more good turn cards we have the more we bet the flop with the specific combo.

BTN mostly overbets the strongest top pairs+ and hands that block BB strongest top pair hand. The smaller bets are done with weaker part of the value range and also value combos that block villains likely continuing hands, like KK.

BTN bets 1/3 and BB calls.

Turn comes:
4
(K974)

BB checks.

What are the best and worst cards for BTN? Obviously the A is a superior card for BTN because button bets most AK, AA, A9 and Ax with backdoor equity. BTN range here usually has proportionally more strong Ax hands than BB. The situation would be a bit different on a more lower and drier flop that connects better with BB, here BTN would check back a lot of Ahi. And when BTN bets it's not Ahi hands as often, but BB would float more Ahi hands because they more often have 2 overs and some backdoors.

The worst cards for BTN is cards that pair the board, because BTN won't bet all 9x and 7x, but BB calls all of those. Also cards like T/J are "bad" for BTN because BTN has way more offsuit strong broadways and backdoor air that BB doesn't have as often. So BB has some more direct draws that improve BB range.

The 4 is somewhat neutral and does not bring in any strong hands for either range. So most strong hands OTF for BTN are as strong on the turn. This is where BTN usually wants to polarize and overbet or check. Here it doesn't make much sense for BTN to bet 9x and weak Kx anymore, because BTN will only get called by better most of the time.

So BTN now overbets the strongest of his range and bluffs. So what bluffs should BTN choose here? The most obvious hands are draws, especially those that are draws to the nuts and include a . Even hands that are "complete air" but blocks strong top pairs and include a and that can bluff on a river card. Gotta remember that many hands are mixed, and the more bluff potential the hand has right now and on the river the higher the betting frequency.

BTN bets 1.5x pot and BB calls.

River comes:
8
(K9748)

8 is a decent card for BTN because BB can't call too many gutshots OTT without it being a combodraw. The river gives BB some 2 pairs though. BTN will now have more straights, sets and two-pair (villain raises some of these either OTF or OTT), so BB is mostly capped OTR.

BTN has a normal sizing on the river and also an overbet shove, but mostly an overbet shove for over 2x the pot because of how capped BB is. So BTN will shove many 2 pairs, sets and straights. As a bluff BTN will shove hands that block BB's most likely top pair bluffcatchers and possible straights. For normal sizing BTN bets top pair hands and weaker 2 pairs, and bluffs for this sizing with hands that have somewhat weaker blocking properties.

BTN shoves for >2x pot and BB folds.

Final board:
K9748

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-27-2020 at 05:58 PM.
03-27-2020 , 06:16 PM
Hey man, very good job on the analysis above, feels like I learned something. If some HS endboss can validate that maybe youre ready for nosebleeds
03-27-2020 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WastedCaller
Hey man, very good job on the analysis above, feels like I learned something. If some HS endboss can validate that maybe youre ready for nosebleeds
Thanks buddy! Well I'm sure someone can rip me apart on this one :-) Mostly my own thoughts and how I interpret what solver does in this specific hand. This is how I learn the most; trying to find the right questions to ask in every spot so it can be applied more universally.
03-28-2020 , 02:44 AM
This thread is like a training site with no subscription.

      
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