Hey guys,
I just hit 300k hands on my current db (which extends back to around the beginning of this June) and this seems like a good time to post a graph update.
I chose to just put it in terms of big blinds because the mix of 100-500z makes the swings look arbitrarily big/small. I haven't played 100z since like June I think. The vast majority of this graph is at 200z with probably around 25k hands of 500z.
You'll notice a near 50BI downswing in there which was pretty sick. I had never been on such a large downswing, which in itself is quite lucky given that variance calculators indicate that this isn't that uncommon. I was talking to a player better than me during that downswing and he told me that he had actually been on three ~50BI downswings. It was just especially brutal because the first 20 or so BI of this downswing was at 500z.
It's crazy how as a poker player you think you have a strong understanding of variance, but even most of us likely don't fully grasp it as well as we should (me included). Riding the emotional swings, both up or down, is something I'm certainly guilty of. I haven't found a way to shut it down completely. One thing that I'm proud of though is that I can quite confidently say that losing a bunch doesn't affect my play (by no means do I mean to imply that I don't make mistakes). However, my mental game can still be improved.
The biggest reason that I get frustrated during losing stretches is ego. I've always been hyper-competitive in everything, and I think this has been, for the most part, advantageous with poker. It's easy to find motivation to study and get better. I'm excited whenever I find a spot that I realize I don't understand well. I've also enjoyed playing in the 500z pool with world-class players like OTB, MMA, and probably a few others that I'm forgetting. This also rings true for guys that may not play the highest stakes, but are undoubtedly crushing 500z. However, this same competitiveness and ego-driven motivation is a detriment when it subconsciously creates entitlement. It's easy to feel (whether consciously or subconsciously) as if you're "above" playing 200z. This is an absolutely futile thought and one that I'm embarrassed to admit that I've had plenty of times at some level. Nobody is above playing any stake, and nobody is too good to forego variance and play the stakes that they feel they should. I'm also in no position to evaluate my own game without incredible bias. While my winrate is good and I've had success at 200z, this doesn't mean I deserve to just move up. Even if we assume that I'm one of the top regs at 200z (which I'm sure some would contest), there are still a
plethora of regs that are vastly stronger than me at 500z.
The other night I had a chat with another really strong player (different from the one mentioned before). He's probably the best player I know and the conversation was incredibly motivating. He's had a tough stretch recently, one that trumps mine by a long shot just given stakes, even though he is undoubtedly +EV in the games he plays. If someone that strong can have such a brutal swing and find the motivation to keep grinding and improving, then I've got nothing to feel entitled about.
I'm not worried the least bit by how many superior regs there are at 500z, I'm excited by the challenge. I'm confident in my game and the improvements I've made recently. I'm even more confident in my ability to work hard and improve. I can get so much better, and I will.
Last edited by shifftyy; 11-13-2017 at 06:50 PM.