Quote:
Originally Posted by BenzY
Wish JJ was in his range (but he prolly would've shipped it pre with that)
Can't put him on AK (or KK+) either, would've shipped pre
really confusing as to what he could have there
The first thing that came to my mind was the question of whether he would have 3bet pre with a polarized range or a merged range. As you said readless, the best thing we could do is approximate.
The fact that this looks like a pretty good squeezing opportunity adds quite a few hands from a polarized range into his actual range. However, this is a EP vs MP dynamic, which naturally weighs his range into value-heavy territory, so more of a merged range. Back to the flip side of the argument, depending on how good of a reg he is, he may see you as a newer player, which might incentivize him to 3bet you wider, so that would tilt his range back towards being more polarized.
With regard to the question of merged vs polarized, I think it helps if we can eliminate all pairs from his range:
KK: based on his postflop shove+preflop flat, I think he has zero percent chance of having this hand.
JJ: I actually think he might fold this preflop. Again, we just have to go back to this being EP vs MP, if he does have JJ, he needs to worry about this. There is hardly any postflop play left with the way this hand has progressed, what would be his plan postflop if he flatted JJ here?
TT or worse pairs: Due to stack depth, 3betting these type of hands is akin to 3betting without a plan. Why would the villain do that with these type of hands getting laid really impressive odds of having 2 flatters before him already?
AK/AQs: Now regarding these hands, i disagree with your assertion that you can't put him on AK and to a lesser extent, he could also have the 4 combos of AQs. AK is an automatic 3bet in his spot preflop, facing a 4bet, I think he would be getting it in really bad vs your range if he 5bet ships, so naturally, flatting the 4bet is way more profitable here compared to the alternatives, if he knows that, he should almost always flat AK here. To a lesser extent, this is also true for AQs. Unfortunately, this implies he will have AK an unproportionally large % of the time when he stuffed it in.
He could still have any of the polarized range hands such as any OESD, any club draws, and any hand that flopped 2nd pair or 3rd pair. With this postflop range, he would almost always shove the flop because this is the only opportunity for him to get you off a type of hand like QQ. You are way ahead of this fairly large range but way behind AK/AQs. He could also have 87, which you are not super far behind to (25% eq, depends on if you have Q
)
I am leaning towards a begrudging fold or a pretty easy call. Not taking the decision lightly by any means and any intangible tells that could sway you one direction or another would help.
Last edited by Parallelflux; 05-28-2015 at 04:18 PM.