Stop speculating, you degens (!!) Rapidesh, you know I'm cool 'w you, but had to bring up the degen-shaming. What I mean is, you have 150k+ h database at your stake, stop speculating, extract out the exact statistics. a)How often does an UTG or MP pfrs & cold call 4bet?* Probably rarely in the situations it could've done the particular play. b)To what range of hands does it correlate? Prob. AA, but does the data confirm this?
Btw, I'll agree with Rapidesh on this hand. The play by the enemy simply smells of AA trying to play fancy and not 5bet jamming, hoping you'd stack off /w weaker in this play and being afraid you'd fold all but AA-twin to 5bet jam.
*if your DB is even higher, do the same but with UTG being similar player types than the villain in question only.
150k hands is nowhere near enough for statisical analysis on this spot, and even if you had a big sample it would be of very limited use when given a specific player and his stats/player type
.
But its a closer spot than you might think, vs a player that knows he shouldnt be calling the 4bet preflop and just playing jam or fold, if he calls, we should give him a range thats always aa/kk because every other hand that calls there is -ev.
You said the player was a 21/10 so he obviously DOESN'T know he shouldn't be flatting 4bets oop wide, or over calling in general, so how could you assume he knows optimal 4bet flatting range, christ you assume total crap. Of course hes going to be making a lot of -ev flats, playing 21/10 ffs.
Btw, guys, calling it a month. I had some talk with a friend of mine, he helped me realize that my game is way worse than I thought, so will take the last days of the month to study. On top of that, I ran very well this month while playing very very bad, my quality of play was incredibly bad. I don't deserve to win that much, not even the $600 of EV, also because I've ran really well on non-all-in spots.
I'll be honest with you and explain to you guys what my plan was in the last 2 months, maybe some regs had already realized it, but here it is:
When I realized I was getting called like crazy, I decided to play with a very explo strat, I decided to underbluff the river vs most regs. The thing is, most people don't bluff the river because they can't, I for sure could and knew which hands to do so and at which point I would be in overbluffing territory. But people were calling me anyways, so I decided to slow down and just give up a lot of bluffs OTR and make people's calldowns terrible. It all started in the last month, and on this month I could see the effects of that: a lot of people started folding like crazy vs me. Tbh, I don't remember a single time I stacked someone in a 3-bet pot in a bet-bet-bet scenario lol.
Even though that strat worked well for a while, I see its weaknesses, and I saw that underbluffing the river is quite dangerous. But for an aggro player like me, it was a very weird thing to do, because usually my first instinct is to just bluff, so I needed a lot of control to make my give ups(even the ones that were wrong in theory, but did it for the sake of my strat). I think that even though it's quite bad vs the average 200z pool, vs some guys in there it's insane.
On top of that, made a lot of bad calls, bad bluffs, bad floats and some thin bets with wrong sizings that were basically hands that were turned into bluffs.
So I'll take these last days to study, I'll look at my database and try to find some mistakes/interesting spots/population tendencies/spots where I could have made a very good out-of-the-box play.
ah, this is how 200z is so far
vaaaaamooooo
Last edited by Rapidesh123; 05-27-2018 at 09:16 PM.
so when you bluffed a lot, people called you down lighter. when you underbluffed, people stopped calling you down.
not sure what your point is? sounds like they're adjusting well to you.
Thats the weakness of going full explo.
But I learned a lot with this time underbluffing, it isn't as bad as I thought, mostly because the solution to beat that strat isn't as trivial as overfolding only.
studying will help him, it will help him understand the EV of various lines on various boards, you don't need to play like the solver when you study, just need to make sense of what's in front of you
studying will help him, it will help him understand the EV of various lines on various boards, you don't need to play like the solver when you study, just need to make sense of what's in front of you
Yeah, I think solver work is massive and too deep, right now I should be more focused on getting my **** together. Will fire up a coaching session with brokenstars this week too.
Btw, bankroll will be at 7k after I cash out money for coaching/mtg cards ofc lol. Was thinking about going back to 100z to test new stuff, but rake is so ridiculous at that stake that I think the EV of 200z is higher even with the tougher pool. Its funny to see how scary the rake is, in 200z there are legends like shifty, jakeeeee, quasselinho and orojanivy(sure that some of you guys dont respect the last 2, but I think theyre very tough opponents).
2bb/100 in rake makes it just a no-brainer lol. I also think that Im a very weird type of player, I think that I dont have a huge edge over terrible regs, but vs good regs they dont have a huge edge over me neither. I battled a lot with a strong reg at 200z(not one of those guys that plays 500z ofc) and Im pretty sure I got the best of him with his gto lines. While I got owned pretty hard vs some random bad regs in the pool lol.
Btw, today I've studied the game of quasselinho, trying to find things he is doing well that I'm not doing. Found out some really cool stuff, here are some hands he played
H1: His 4-bet range is super messed up, but he plays like that because people fold and call 4-bets more than they should(rather than jamming), giving him the option to play a lot of pots IP and realize an insane amount of equity(and fold equity) in spots where most people underbluff and he can easily overbluff in those if he wants because of his pre-flop strat.
H2: quite amazing to see he is hero calling this, I would never think about making that call OTR. Tbh I feel that it's quite a bad call in there, after 3 checks, anyone will see that their low flushes are likely good and will go for a valuebet. Some people in the pool won't make this valuebet ofc, but it seems that a big weakness of his game is calling too much and opening himself to get valueowned by some people. But with that weakness, comes some great strength too, because he is making a lot inducing bluffs from the population, specially with his image
H3: Not sure about this one, this spot is for sure overbluffed, but with the flush getting there for that sizing, some nitty players will have soooo much value
H4: very sick hand, tbh I wouldn't ever think of a hand I would play that way, most of the time I'm either bet bet jamming or x/f turn, or leading river for value, which kills villain's bluffs. In that spot, should I double check some of my Jx? Like JT, JQ, TT? In that spot I see people overbluffing, villain's line reps nothing but 22. very bad bluff from villain imo
H5: this hand shows how insane this guy is, fish overcalls the 3-bet and he 4-bet-bluffs there to isolate the fish. I don't know if he was tilting, because I 3-bet him a lot, but his play is out of this world. I never approach fish this way ever, because I expect the fish to almost never fold and jam back a lot.I think it's bad, way better to call and see a flop
H6: very sick play vs fish, don't know if check-raising turn is better than just betting himself, insane sizings he used with the worst 2-pair, it seems it's never too thin vs a whale. Also jamming river will give an additional fold equity, so his sizing there looks better than a jam, which will usually look as way stronger by the whale. I made those kind of plays a lot, but not finding the spots to do so(or just missing them), but 100% sure wasn't doing with bottom 2. Maybe I should go way thinner vs whales than I'm doing?
H7: on this one I think x/r the river is way better than betting, some guys will call AK there, but in this spot villain will have a lot of KQ/AQ type of hands and random stuff he wants to bluff with, so by checking we protect our range better. And with these actions, his hand is basically the nuts(not always vs a good opponent that checks back some AA)
H8: vs me, his river play is so lol, but I can see it as +EV, usually check check ranges from IP are very very weak, and it's really hard to defend vs that, the problem of his play is that he did on a river that hits my check check range a lot, so I'll have plenty of TP to call him down, if he made it on a Q it would be way tougher for me to call, specially since he still has a lot of Q in his range and he can represent them well, with that line he has very few(if none) flushes in his range. I think I'll try to implement this kind of bluff in my game vs weaker players, really strong play vs unaware opponents. Won't do this much vs regs as an exploit ofc
quasselinho shows T 5 (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 37%, Flop 25%, Turn 23%) Rapidesh123 shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 63%, Flop 75%, Turn 77%) Rapidesh123 wins 39.77 BB
H9: Terrible bluff from him imo, for that sizing people aren't folding AK, he should just jam if he wants to get folds. Also I think it's quite a terrible river to bluff, simply because of how strong villain's range is there, villain has close to 0 air there and he will need around 60%+ folds with a check-jam in order for this to be +EV, villain will probably need to fold anything but a flush, which is quite optimistic imo. Some guys will fold everything and even a flush, but only if he jams, with that lolsizing it's a massive -EV move, probably burning close to all bbs he put in the pot in there lol. I think that looking for rivers to check-raise as a bluff while turning hands into bluffs is fine, but gotta know the ones which are terrible.
quasselinho shows T A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 61%, Flop 77%, Turn 74%) Vitaminos shows 6 8 (Flush, King High)
(Pre 39%, Flop 23%, Turn 26%) Vitaminos wins 104.74 BB
H10: It's funny to see how people struggle in different spots. I for sure struggle with bluffcatching, quasselinho does well in that topic, but he is soooo bad at folding lol. Guy squeezes and makes it 50% into 2 people, he is sooooo nuted in there, specially on that board. I was always thinking about how I was bad at bluffcatching when watching these hands, but by watching this, I see that a lot of players could learn from other's strengths. OTF it's just a fold imo, ott it's bad but vs some people it's fine
it's fine to look at quasselinho's game to figure out how to exploit him but don't try to play like him, he doesn't play very well overall, also don't fold suited broadways to his 4bets, he is clearly way too wide
I don't deserve to win that much, not even the $600 of EV, also because I've ran really well on non-all-in spots.
You deserve all of the money, any donkey who's willing to gamble but upholds quality luck deserves to win
However, if you don't improve, you risk losing it back or (in softest case) losing your income stream.
Gl hf on improving your game and getting that cEV back to good
Question: do you actually make decisions based on off other player's timing tells, if yes, how frequently?
Question 2: hands vs Quasselimo; EVbb/100 vs Quasselimo?
You deserve all of the money, any donkey who's willing to gamble but upholds quality luck deserves to win
However, if you don't improve, you risk losing it back or (in softest case) losing your income stream.
Gl hf on improving your game and getting that cEV back to good
Question: do you actually make decisions based on off other player's timing tells, if yes, how frequently?
Question 2: hands vs Quasselimo; EVbb/100 vs Quasselimo?
I consider timing tells more than I should, probably at 50% of the spots Im in I use timing tells to at least add weight to fold, call or raise.
he streams, man, Im pretty sure he is fine with that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rapidesh123
I consider timing tells more than I should, probably at 50% of the spots Im in I use timing tells to at least add weight to fold, call or raise.
Yay, me too. Why is he snap CR-jamming me all in in 0.5s on the turn? Because he has a set and he hopes I call before I let my brain realize the enemy just snap shipped me in 0.5s on the turn, which, in my stake, is super high chance it's a set.
I think I asked you b4 but I'm not sure you answered. What is Quasselimos link to his twitch.tv stream? I couldn't find him