Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick93
Nvm dude, fantastic hand, wouldn't play it any other way at all.
About that hand, I still think it was good
Here is why I think my play was good. OFC at the time I couldn't come with this solution, but it was probably something around that.
Let's imagine if we bet 33% OTT and we get jammed on, we're never folding vs a 60 VPIP player, right? So we're basically get it in anyway when he has us beat(unless he slowplays again OTT).
If we bet 33%, he is calling all QT, K2s, AT, 9T, 89. the thing here is that he is almost never calling the river if he doesn't get his straight, so we're basically giving him a "cheap price" to see if he hits his draw. OFC vs a good player it's a normal move, we're supposed to bet this sizing OTT with that SPR, the thing is that I thought that villain was able to call a bigger bet and that he would make more mistakes vs a jam rather than a 33%.
If I jam, I hope to see him call with QT, KQ, JQ, maybe even AT/AJ. He is a 60 vpip player, man, it's likely that he is making those kind of mistakes. So in the end, if we bet 33%, we get minimum value vs his calling range and still get stacked all the time when he has the goods(and decide to jam, which is likely). By jamming we risk losing that 33% bet OTT vs a range that will draw to a chop(or sometimes outdraw us with the AT), but if villain is making the mistake of calling with QT there, it's a HUGE +ev move for us.
If my assumptions were right, I'm making a ton of money in that spot, if they were wrong, I'm missing a little of EV. In the end we're never sure in poker in those exploitative spots, I decided to go for it and hope villain made a major mistake. I get super extreme vs fish, that's the way I think is the best approach vs them.
Vs an aggrofish, you're making a lot of money by folding bad hands and then checking/inducing with good hands, but to get the maximum winrate vs them, you should let them spew really hard and rebluff when they're air heavy. Vs a huge station you're printing by valuebetting TPTK for 3 streets for 75%, but you're making way more if you're doing not only that, but betting TP second kicker, third kicker for 3 streets, raising sets on flush boards, raising flushes on paired boards, not leaving any money on the board.
vs extreme players I think making extreme plays is best. What do you guys think? Still think it's bad and an overplay? This is a very interesting spot and worth discussing, any ideas will be great.