Didn't read all this over discussion - but just some food for thought:
GTO is playing your hand in the most +EV way at each decision point. PIO gives us a framework for what that means if villain is clairvoyant about your range and adjusts optimally. You can/should use this framework to guide you in-game, but seems like you can't see the forest for the trees. Sometimes you just gotta play your hand.
River:(75.48 BB, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero bets 89.52 BB and is all-in, fold
Hero wins 71.7 BB
H2: vs reg, I think it's possible to find a fold OTT, don't think his sizing is that bluffy and I block his bluffs, vs competent regs I have to just call here, right? But I don't think a competent reg would use 50% OTR, meh.
MP shows 7 7 (Full House, Sevens full of Fours)
(Pre 53%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%) Hero mucks K Q (Two Pair, Kings and Fours)
(Pre 47%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%) MP wins 59.1 BB
H3: vs unknown, I almost folded because of the marketing sizing(was 19.50), but decided that the marketing sizing was no good! that's why I reproved 3 times in marketing before finally passing haha! vaaaaaaamo
CO shows 8 Q (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 37%, Flop 46%, Turn 27%) Hero shows K T (Two Pair, Tens and Sevens)
(Pre 63%, Flop 54%, Turn 73%) Hero wins 116.14 BB
H4: vs reg, wp? I think at 50z those turn overbets are very underbluffed, but he looked to be competent, so I thought he had bluffs and was valuebetting worse too. OTR I think I have the worst bluffcatcher in the universe, what would you guys do with ATcc OTR? Good fold?
H5: I know that I should check the flop or the turn, but villain was the biggest whale in the universe, I've never seen someone call so fast, as soon as I bet he was already calling lol.
River:(67.1 BB, 2 players) 9 UTG checks, Hero bets 91.3 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 91.3 BB
Spoiler:
Hero shows Q Q (Full House, Jacks full of Queens)
(Pre 68%, Flop 9%, Turn 0%) UTG shows J K (Four of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 32%, Flop 91%, Turn 100%) UTG wins 245.7 BB
H8: vs reg I didn't have much info on, such an annoying spot OTT, bad fold? I feel like his sizing is sooo nutted, like most people just jam turn with good draws. Also maybe these guys could have QQ/KK/AA at some % imo(specially QQ)
BB shows A T (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 31%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%) Hero mucks A K (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 69%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%) BB wins 4.88 BB
H10: vs whale, should I just jam turn? I hate having the Ad, I think AQ beats mostly AdXd hands in there and there are sooo many 2p going on, I'm very confused about this one. Trying to be a station vs these guys but I still end up folding in some spots.
Edit*** (sounded like a jackass again) but turning JJ to massive bluff, flatting JJ pre, a lot of wierd c/c c/c c/c, and very 2012 sizeings makes me confused after all this gto/solver talk. Didnt understand any of the hands but good to hear ur doing well
Last edited by Adversitive; 12-19-2018 at 12:26 PM.
Originally Posted by H10: vs whale, should I just jam turn? I hate having the Ad, I think AQ beats mostly AdXd hands in there and there are sooo many 2p going on, I'm very confused about this one. Trying to be a station vs these guys but I still end up folding in some spots.
Edit*** (sounded like a jackass again) but turning JJ to massive bluff, flatting JJ pre, a lot of wierd c/c c/c c/c, and very 2012 sizeings makes me confused after all this gto/solver talk. Didnt understand any of the hands but good to hear ur doing well
X/c with KQ is non standard, but I'm checking a ton OOP in srp, haven't studied that spot yet.
Turning JJ into a bluff is decent, villain is supposed to x his JhAh ott and barrel A5hh and I don't have AJo in my range in that spot vs him, so if I'm not bluffing JJ what am I bluffing with there? AJs/JTs make good turn bluffs but bad river bluffs, need some hearts combos for the river and that's the only Jh I have that isn't a flush. Also turn is very good for my range, specially if villain is very tight pre, since Kh is blocked by the board, if he doesn't have that many SCs/Axs in his 3-bet range he will struggle in having flushes on that texture, now if it were 458Thhsh, then it would be totally different.
On top of that, villain needs to check flushes/trips to protect his range, if he just goes for value with those and only x AK/AQ type of hands + give ups, it makes my bluff way better. And the tendency of population is just to play their hand, go for value and leave their x range unprotected.
Flatting JJ bb vs utg is std, I should flat half of my QQ and half of mt AKo. I will only deviate from that if villain is defending more vs 3bets than he should or if he is very wide pre. We don't have that much value to be made vs utg range and playing 3bet pots OOP sucks. Also getting 4bet sucks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finland22
Holy good God.
Could you give me some advice in that hand?
Last edited by Rapidesh123; 12-19-2018 at 02:42 PM.
X/c with KQ is non standard, but I'm checking a ton OOP in srp, haven't studied that spot yet.
Turning JJ into a bluff is decent, villain is supposed to x his JhAh ott and barrel A5hh and I don't have AJo in my range in that spot vs him, so if I'm not bluffing JJ what am I bluffing with there? AJs/JTs make good turn bluffs but bad river bluffs, need some hearts combos for the river and that's the only Jh I have that isn't a flush. Also turn is very good for my range, specially if villain is very tight pre, since Kh is blocked by the board, if he doesn't have that many SCs/Axs in his 3-bet range he will struggle in having flushes on that texture, now if it were 458Thhsh, then it would be totally different.
On top of that, villain needs to check flushes/trips to protect his range, if he just goes for value with those and only x AK/AQ type of hands + give ups, it makes my bluff way better. And the tendency of population is just to play their hand, go for value and leave their x range unprotected.
Flatting JJ bb vs utg is std, I should flat half of my QQ and half of mt AKo. I will only deviate from that if villain is defending more vs 3bets than he should or if he is very wide pre. We don't have that much value to be made vs utg range and playing 3bet pots OOP sucks. Also getting 4bet sucks.
Could you give me some advice in that hand?
In first JJ hand why dont u just check down the hand? U even have a heart should be a super easy check back turn with alot of showdown value cant imagine ever turning it into a bluff its way to strong imo.
Flattting JJ + halv QQ/AK vs utg woot? Have never ever flatted any of those and my ranges are worked out from pio studying from my hs coach. So ur 3bet range here must be 2%?
H10: vs whale, should I just jam turn? I hate having the Ad, I think AQ beats mostly AdXd hands in there and there are sooo many 2p going on, I'm very confused about this one. Trying to be a station vs these guys but I still end up folding in some spots.
H10: vs whale, should I just jam turn? I hate having the Ad, I think AQ beats mostly AdXd hands in there and there are sooo many 2p going on, I'm very confused about this one. Trying to be a station vs these guys but I still end up folding in some spots.
With overcard ott fish has incentive to bet kq aq so its pretty hard to rule out worse value, also his flop lead looks super capped and you probably mostly only lose to qj and beat whatever else he can have which is a bunch of fds some random gutshots possibly and i think 89 is super rare to see. You cant nit fold against non nutted lines when they can even have worse value
Didn't read all this over discussion - but just some food for thought:
GTO is playing your hand in the most +EV way at each decision point. PIO gives us a framework for what that means if villain is clairvoyant about your range and adjusts optimally. You can/should use this framework to guide you in-game, but seems like you can't see the forest for the trees. Sometimes you just gotta play your hand.
that isnt quite right, GTO sometimes picks a sizing that is lower ev than another one for the sake of balance
It picks, even if our EV with the nuts would be higher by betting bigger, there's merit to putting some combos in a smaller sizing to protect it by limiting how thin villain could value-raise vs that sizing. The EV with that hand will be reduced but it will increase the EV of all other hands in the small sizing range vs an opponent who knows 100% of our strat.
I think people here are confusing optimal strategy vs game theory optimal strat:
Optimal strat: strat that will make the most EV vs villain (as an example, having 0 bluffs otr vs a big station is an optimal strat)
Game theory optimal strat: strat designed to make you unexploitable.
Last edited by Rapidesh123; 12-20-2018 at 08:25 AM.
There is no reason to ever make a decision that is -EV, just for the sake of balance. Every poker hand is 100% isolated from the other ones.
Imagine: you are on the river facing an all-in bet, and you know for a fact that call has higher EV than fold. Why would you ever fold? It makes no sense.
GTO would never do that. PIO maybe does it sometimes, as a way of increasing the accuracy of results.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rapidesh123
I think people here are confusing optimal strategy vs game theory optimal strat:
Optimal strat: strat that will make the most EV vs villain (as an example, having 0 bluffs otr vs a big station is an optimal strat)
Game theory optimal strat: strat designed to make you unexploitable.
GTO isn't "designed to make you unexploitable", it's designed to play every hand in it's range in the highest EV way possible vs someone using the same strategy.
If two GTO players played one vs another, they would both be playing Optimaly with every hand in every spot.
Also, I strongly believe that the whole concept of "protecting our range" has zero logic behind it, is just a bad simplification of how to play certain spots.
You don't check with a strong hand to "protect your range", you should do it because you believe it has the same or higher EV than betting. It's as simple as that.
just exploitable, you can see on PIO the ev of every action and its not true that the ev is the same when it mixes sizings, its usually fairly close but its different
just exploitable, you can see on PIO the ev of every action and its not true that the ev is the same when it mixes sizings, its usually fairly close but its different