Now some calculations I've made about that:
Let's consider it's BTN vs BB, with these ranges, BB can only respond to call or fold, BTN can bet for 25% sizing with range or 100% sizing with range only.
BTN pre-flop range:
BB pre-flop calling range:
Equities OTF before betting happens(player 1 = BTN, player 2 = BB):
BB defense vs 25% sizing
Equities after calling the 25% sizing
BB defense vs 100% sizing
Equities after calling the 100% sizing
First, I've made the defenses somewhat close to what I think are ok in real life, expecting people to bet small range or big a polarized range. So BB is defending 73% vs a 25% sizing and 41.6% vs a pot sized cbet OTF. The thing is that in this analysis BB doesn't know BTN is betting range for that sick sizing, so it's likely that he is overfolding vs that. Also by not having x/r in the equation it changes a bit too.
Then these were the results for BTN(consider pot = 1):
EV before betting starts: = 0.52
EV after 25% cbet = 0.551
EV after 100% cbet = 0.6099
What can you guys see from that? Basically that's the exact opposite of what my conclusions were: BTN is having an increase in EV by making a mistake. But the reason of that is because BB isn't playing well vs his strat, he is overfolding. The BB's defense strat that I chose were considering if villain is betting TP+ and some bluffs, with a checking back range, he isn't expected to defend that much vs that and can fold, specially vs the big sizing.
But if opponent is betting range for pot OTF, then things get tricky: by defending that few hands, he will lose a bigger share of the pot against a range that shouldn't own that much! Now I've made BB defend the same vs a 25% range cbet and vs a 100% range cbet.
Here are the results for BTN after BB started defending 63% vs his pot sized range cbets:
EV after 100% cbet(vs good defense strat) = 0.516
Final results for comparison(BTN EV OTF vs all strats)
EV before betting starts: = 0.52
EV after 25% cbet = 0.551
EV after 100% cbet(vs bad defense strat) = 0.6099
EV after 100% cbet(vs good defense strat) = 0.516
So that's it.
Ofc these calculations were very simple and don't consider stuff like playability, position and x/r OTF. Those variables should change a lot of how stuff is played. But the idea here is just to see the concept and try to extrapolate later into different spots. It's more like a poker philosophy thing. Also it's good to know I was playing very poorly vs those pot sized cbets from whales. I was getting exploited like crazy, should focus on stationing them waaaaaaay more.
Also it's interesting to see that some whales are massibely printing OTF by range cbetting for a pot sized bet. ofc they donate everything later haha.
See? 0.25 sngs and play money hands can make a lot of sick insights happen!