Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOhohoho
i really don't get this hand. I dont play on Stars anymore but have played 50z in the past. This is surely a terrible fold.
The way you play just doesn't make sense. You will stick in over 100bbs with pretty bad river bluffs yet fold QQ on J534. Just because he is passive doesn't mean he isn't betting just a Jack imo.
What's the problem with bluffing 100bbs? In those spots I bluff I have a decent idea about my value range/blockers/villain's range and just go for it, std.
Villain in this hand was marked as a fish with passive stats, somethings you must know about fish ranges in that spot:
1- the fish will have a x range
2- the fish will have a small betting range
3- the fish will have a big betting range.
His x back range will be most likely garbage hands with bad equity/some pps
His small betting range will have bluffs he wants to stab and win the pot and he will be happy with that. He will have thin value bets like 66 in there
Now what goes into his big betting range? I'm pretty sure he has 0 sets on all other ranges and only in the big betting range, sure that he will have some AJ, but these guys are pussies to the point of not even going that big with AJ (or maybe 0 Jx). Gotta remember that they love betting small to make sure they will get calls, they do that all the time.
There's another player profile who can bet that big with garbage/thin value/protection, which is an aggro whale, but this guy had like 20/10 stats and 30 afq on each street, I was confident there was a 0 chance he was a whale.
On top of that, these nitfish never fold pps pre, they set mine all the time because people give them reasons to. I'm not even sure if he calls KJo in there and he could 3bet some AJ combos pre. Vs a preflop range very heavy with pps, it's a good fold of my read on his ranges 1,2 and 3 are right. I've ran a sim to see how pio plays vs a range with many pps in there, it cbets very often and almost range checks any turn (something that people used to do in 2009-2013 when everyone was setmining like crazy). Vs that range there isn't that much value to be made, since most of villain's range will be very bad equity hands or nuts.
I play vs these nits since I started poker, gotta remember that I played 500+k hands of FR, mostly at nl10 back in 2013, it wasn't uncommon to see a table filled with 14 vpip ppl. And on 6-max most of my volume was on 50z, a stake where most of the population is very nitty too. You don't beat nits by playing reasonable poker, you just overbluff them all the time and get out of the way if you think he will be underbluffing.
He needs to win around 23bbs from me for his setmines to breakeven, and I will rarely see his sizing scheme imo, so most of the time he will bet small, I will x/r and bluff him off his equity or get some thin value along the way, when he has a set he will never get paid. That's how I like playing vs these guys.
I know it's micro stakes logic, but that's how micro stakes people play: they have exactly what they have amd they are afraid of valuebetting thin, specially for a big sizing. I know how insane it is to fold QQ in there, but if you take into account that guy won't use that sizing scheme almost never (and it's very unlikely that he will use the reverse logic), I can soul read him.
Tbh check-calling turn and x/f all rivers seems best if he has AJ in his range. But I'm not sure about that.