Hey there. Last two days I played less games and thought more about what happened that made me lose 1K in a month at these games.
So graph for this month looks like this :
I think that is perfectly normal on this CEV WR to be losing. Using the simulations it looks like only 1% of the runs end up with around ~142 BIs on this number of games which looks really annoying.
On total games (6000) my CEV WR is around 70, but by constantly having the worse hand both preflop and postflop where CEV should be way higher than 52 took me to this number for the month. I think variance is really huge in these games and if I will need at least 500 BI`s to play these, which I don`t really want to do anymore.
Another big factor that influenced this downswing was the frequency of my stack at HU. If one player busts in the first few hands I will always make HU with 500 chips and I have an ITM of only 35% in this scenario. The higher the frequency of this thing happening in the short term, the bigger the loss will be because I will have a negative EV on the tournament.
Another key factor was running against top of people ranges, both preflop and postflop. In the short run this will lead to very big downswings, especially if you`re running bad in the spots where you`re ahead and losing the ones you`re behind.
Overall I think these games are beatable but the variance is way too big for me to be playing them furthermore. The fact that I try to "grind for a living" should have influenced me from the begining and should have made me to not play them at all and stick to games with lower variance.
I take some days off to reconsider my choices, probably going to switch back to cash games and most likely zoom.
I will probably be opening another PG&C thread, after deciding on my gameplan.
The main reason for this challenge to fail was my lack of understanding the variance in these games, coming without the proper knowledge about it was a big factor.
Thank you guys for following this very short thread, but I will be back with another one that will be way longer and more entertaining.
Good luck everyone !