So I caught some rancid cold/flu off somebody, not feeling so good today so only put in an hour or two of playing.
Pretty happy with my stats so far. This graph is all from NL2. I'm only 5BI up from where I'm started, but still about 12.5 BI below EV and my AI EV indicates a winrate of about 17-18 BB/100 so far. I'm just hoping I can keep it above 10BB/100, or 15BB/100 (maybe a little bit presumptuous...) for the next 10k hands.
Interesting point on that graph... My redline seems to be dropping way faster over the past 2-3k hands, even though my winrate is higher. Pretty sure this is due to having so many more loose players around today and yesterday (weekend donks maybe?). It's way less feasible to steal/3-bet/c-bet (with air) profitably when there's so many loose players around, and I've had to adjust and tighten up accordingly, i.e. not worrying about trying to steal from loose players in the blinds or barrel every flop IP, because these donks will call down a lot wider than the regs who play during the week. So, I'm not able to steal anywhere near as many pots, either PF or OTF, and am therefore losing more without showdown compared to the first 10k hands. However, as I've tightened right up and just value bet the pants off everything, my showdown winnings have gone up drastically. This is what it seems like to me anyway. I guess it could easily just be variance and I'm reading into it too much.
I do have a question. After reading up a bunch and watching my stats, I have tightened up my PF range OOP to the point where I'll happily fold AJ UTG. Is this good? Or is this too tight? Also, how should one play KQs UTG in a FR NL2 game full of TAG players? It seems sort of close. Folding seems a little tight, calling seems bad (except to mix up from time to time) and raising seems like I risk getting called by a hand that dominates me. Am thinking folding is still the best option though. Thoughts?