Quote:
For H1 in the last post... you're calling a 5bet with 75s and you think I'm spewing with KK? :
It's not about the combo; it's about the math+logic. Here it is...
1. The 4bet versus the reg squeeze is bluff. I 4bet bluff with a high frequency (I already posted that) Why? because I know my population. It 3bets too much and 4bets too little, esp in the blinds and near the btn. No nead to debate that strat further, because it is measurable (%4betsuccess). When I have decent sample size (give it a couple of months, I'll post a screenshot and if I'm losing money, that's when i'll adjust
) Logic and math you see.
2. Villains FPS 5bet faces up his hand (its AA like 95% of the time and maybe KK once or twice, its never anything else). This give us pure odds to stack off with equity, because we know villain is jamming any flop. Logic you see. (PS and I already posted I would have folded to the 5bet jam).
3. We are calling 16bb with pot odds of 5.5:1 (plus the implied odds that it is all going in on the turn, so my raw equity = my realizable equity). Math you see.
4. Equity needed for 5.5:1 (roughly 16%, from memory). equity of 75s versus AA (roughy 20%), from memory). Not great (hence spewyish) but certainly valid. (maths you see)
5. Post flop playability is dead pure simple. We flop a continuation hand 25% of the time (good draws with good odds, two pair or better) we continue them all. Everything else we fold. Note 16% required to see the flop, 25% of the time we continue, ofc we don't win every continuation. (maths you see).
So yeah, its spewyish (because we usually fold flop after putting in a big chunk of stack, and we lose some continuations.) but it all stems from villains AA FPS, so he makes a huge mistake which opens the door to be exploited if a, hero knows math, b. hero knows population and c. hero has
.
Hero does,
plus I can visualize all of this within the few seconds required because I've worked my nuts off with post flop study.
You can learn from this PP, or you can carrying on playing with preflop ranges, the choice is entirely yours.
PS
And for any other reader the reason villains FPS 5bet is so bad is because it is completely unbalanced and faces up his hand. Online in 2019 this is poker suicide at almost any stakes.
Last edited by OldManDecaf; 04-21-2019 at 03:05 AM.