H1: Judging from villain´s pov, Idk if defending 77 pf is ok or too loose at 6-max (your 3bet sizing was huge), but slowplaying flop seems pretty standard. Wouldn´t consider quads in his range, and I´m probably calling any standard sizing river bet (1/2 pot for example) almost always after x/x turn. If he check raises on the river after a big bet, I think you´d have odds to call even knowing he probably has the nuts. But I don´t think villains would take this line and your decision will always be simpler than that.

After the hand I would sitout for a few minutes until any thoughts about how unfair and rigged stars is, how $%$@# lucky bas***** always flop the nuts etc dissipates from my mind lol.

H2: Seeing the 75o would make me cry

Wasn't going to post again today, but when two fun hands arrive in quick succession...MHIG both times.

75 might not be as spewy as it looks. BB is a squeezing reg, so I like a 4bet bluff here, with a hand that has easy post flop playability and position if he calls. If he 5bets jams, I fold, but he goes all FPS and prices me in. After that it is just fun fun fun. (but yeah, probably still spewy though )


PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit

UTG: $8.86 (89 bb)
MP: $12.58 (126 bb)
CO (Hero): $11.23 (112 bb)
BU: $13.10 (131 bb)
SB: $10.90 (109 bb)
BB: $18.75 (188 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 7 5
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB 3-bets to $1.20, 1 fold, Hero 4-bets to $2.80, 1 fold, SB 5-bets to $4.40, Hero calls $1.60

Flop: ($9.20) 6 4 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.83 (all-in), SB calls $6.50 (all-in)

...and I'm loving the OOP sp here...plenty

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit

UTG (Hero): $12.77 (128 bb)
MP: $14.61 (146 bb)
CO: $10.00 (100 bb)
BU: $10.00 (100 bb)
SB: $10.74 (107 bb)
BB: $12.90 (129 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 8 8
Hero raises to $0.30, MP 3-bets to $0.90, 4 players fold, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) K K 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.56, Hero calls $0.56

Turn: ($3.07) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.15, Hero calls $2.15

River: ($7.37) T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $11 (all-in), Hero calls $9.16 (all-in)

As you sports fans probably realise, nothing makes OM Decaf, happier than raising two fingers to the OMC image

For H1 (in the previous set, where you had KK), I think you can jam the turn as an exploitive play. People will call with lower PPs, and will probably call a lot with Ax, thinking they will split the pot with you.

For H1 in the last post... you're calling a 5bet with 75s and you think I'm spewing with KK?

It's not about the combo; it's about the math+logic. Here it is...

1. The 4bet versus the reg squeeze is bluff. I 4bet bluff with a high frequency (I already posted that) Why? because I know my population. It 3bets too much and 4bets too little, esp in the blinds and near the btn. No nead to debate that strat further, because it is measurable (%4betsuccess). When I have decent sample size (give it a couple of months, I'll post a screenshot and if I'm losing money, that's when i'll adjust ) Logic and math you see.

2. Villains FPS 5bet faces up his hand (its AA like 95% of the time and maybe KK once or twice, its never anything else). This give us pure odds to stack off with equity, because we know villain is jamming any flop. Logic you see. (PS and I already posted I would have folded to the 5bet jam).

3. We are calling 16bb with pot odds of 5.5:1 (plus the implied odds that it is all going in on the turn, so my raw equity = my realizable equity). Math you see.

4. Equity needed for 5.5:1 (roughly 16%, from memory). equity of 75s versus AA (roughy 20%), from memory). Not great (hence spewyish) but certainly valid. (maths you see)

5. Post flop playability is dead pure simple. We flop a continuation hand 25% of the time (good draws with good odds, two pair or better) we continue them all. Everything else we fold. Note 16% required to see the flop, 25% of the time we continue, ofc we don't win every continuation. (maths you see).

So yeah, its spewyish (because we usually fold flop after putting in a big chunk of stack, and we lose some continuations.) but it all stems from villains AA FPS, so he makes a huge mistake which opens the door to be exploited if a, hero knows math, b. hero knows population and c. hero has .

Hero does,

plus I can visualize all of this within the few seconds required because I've worked my nuts off with post flop study.

You can learn from this PP, or you can carrying on playing with preflop ranges, the choice is entirely yours.

PS

And for any other reader the reason villains FPS 5bet is so bad is because it is completely unbalanced and faces up his hand. Online in 2019 this is poker suicide at almost any stakes.

raw equity of 75s is irrelevant as there is further action in the hand. vs a range of AA at this spr you're going to under realize.

Hmm the 57ss hand seems close if we factor in EQR, I'll try to break the spot down for practice if anything is wrong with my math please let me know.
For simplicity I assume SB jams every flop as he most likely should given the SPR and that it's very hard for him to flop less equity than he needs to stack off here vs any reasonable range. I'm assigning SB something in line with your assumptions, all his AA and 20% of his KK.

On the flop we need to call 6.5 to win 9.2+6.5+6.5, so we break even on our flop call whenever we have more than 6.5/(9.2+6.5+6.5)~29.3% equity.


(6.2k trials)

So we flop more than 29.3% around 18% of the time.
82% of the time we fold postflop, looking at it from preflop that means we need to profit 82% of our 44 BB pre investment whenever we do continue postflop, call it 36BB.
To break even:
36=(total money we win if we win)*(fq of winning) - (total money we lose if villain wins)*(fq of villain winning)

36=(pot+SB_jam+Hero_call)*equity - (eff stack)*(1-equity)

36=(92+65+65)*x-((65+44)*(1-x))

Solving for x gives us x~43.8%, I'll spare you the math.

So the call preflop is only profitable if we have 43.8% equity on average given that we flop at least 29.3% equity.

I'll use odds oracle to run an equity calculation where I require that 57s has at least 29.3% equity on the flop vs the range we assigned.


So in conclusion it seems like even factoring in all the times we fold flop, assuming we don't overfold at all, we're making quite a bit of money calling preflop here.

I've explained that, you need to reread what I posted, its pretty clear.

rEktquity, blimey, that's some pretty fancy math there Not sure I follow it all, but I'll take your word for it. Mathswise, I tend to stick with what I can process at the felt in the few seconds available.

cheers for posting it though

Keen not to stray to far from my main point to pokerphilosopher, which is postflop play should be based on logic, maths and structured emotion-free thinking.

It is inevitable in the time available, that we will make small errors in equity and EV calculations. That really does not matter at all if we are following logical mathematical processes and staying tilt-free.

Ok, OMD, you wanna talk math, we'll talk math lol. Calling 75s to that 5bet is losing money. Here's why (you can also thank me later).

So, assumptions are villain only has AA and will shove all flops. Taking nl10 Stars' rake into account, when we win, we will win another 131.01bb. And when we lose, we lose another 81bb. And of course, if we fold on the flop, we just lose the 16bb.

We will flop the following hands, with the following frequencies, and will profit the following amounts (taking into consideration that they still have equity as well; used flopzilla for this). Obviously, there are some slight approximations, but nothing major that should affect anything drastically.

Quads+: 0.03% (+131.01 bb)
Full House: 0.09% (+112.81 bb)
Flush: 0.83% (+125.01 bb)
Straight: 0.96% (+124.05 bb)
Trips: 1.35% (+112.16 bb)
2 Pair: 2.02% (+78.01 bb)

Flush Draw: 10.9% (+0.38 bb)
OESD: 7.58% (-8.4 bb)

Other: 76.24% (-16 bb)

Gutshots, we lose 41 bb by calling, so it's better not to continue with those, since by folding we've only lost 16 bb.

So by multiplying the percentages by profits/losses, we end up with -7.33 bb/hand.

So by calling the 5bet, we lose about 7bb more than we would by folding preflop. You're welcome.

When we win, we win the whole pot, including what was put in pre. While you wrote 'another', I don't think you actually included the whole preflop pot in your EV calculations, seems that way at least when I look at your result for EV on Quads.

First assume we have 50% equity when we get it in on the flop to simplify this a tad
It will also be simpler to look at ev as from our starting stack, which we can do as long as we keep it consistent.

So we will consider the ev of folding to be -2.8

18% of the time we get our starting stack back, for an ev of 0
82% of the time we lose 4.4

0.82 * 4.4 = -$3.608, so calling is about $0.8 worse than folding.

We can also do it from the perspective that folding is 0ev. For this,
Fold = $0
18% we get our starting stack back, for an ev of $2.8
82% of the time, we lose $1.6
(0.18*2.8) - (0.82*1.6) = -$0.8

I believe you've made a mistake in calculating how much equity we need when getting it in on the flop.

If every other calculation you've made is accurate then I think you've shown that the call loses about 8bb, which is actually pretty close to the estimation of PokerPhilosopher

rEktquity , No, I did include that. The pot on the flop after rake is deducted is 87.86bb. 16bb of which is ours. So we win 71.86bb from that. Then he has another 65bb left over. Which is 59.15bb after rake is deducted.

EDIT: looks like valuecutting got roughly the same result as me.

Thanks valuecutting, yes seems like I didn't account for the cost of folding consistently, your math is much clearer for sure.

I see pokerphilosopher, makes sense.