Quote:
Originally Posted by boylo91
I wasn't going to reply to this as there is so much negativity in your post and your assumptions are just crazy. But i will reply anyway.
1. I was really hoping your post was going to be creative criticisim.
2.this is gambling on my future child's lifelmfao.please explain how? you have no idea of my financial situation,my past or my future plans for my child.
3.ok,so you suggest i should start at 55s,109s,215s and above to be successful?nice.
4.again another assumption.fantastic stuff!
5.should i title it,"a dream that im going to fail at miserably and not be successful.
I dont see anything wrong with a little self believe!.
6.why would i want to move up stakes quickly,i am happy to grind these for as long needed to see if i can be a proven winner .
7.what happens if you get fired from your job??
8.man,i lold at this one.
9.Thats ok buddy because i have a nice loving family . with your attitude tough,id be ashamed to even be your pet cat.
10.slow and steady wins the race buddy ole pal.
11.thanks for your input.greatly appreciated.
This post was not meant to be negative. If you see realistic concerns of doing this as negativity then hey, I hope you can live in a house that is built on optimism. I fully and completely embrace and encourage an optimistic mindset, but that doesn't mean being realistic should be thrown out the window.
I can see at the slightest amount of devil's advocate (which is a key tool for starting any kind of venture in order to avoid or foresee potential pitfalls) you are defensive and resistant. This is not a good sign. Most poker players who are successful are always open minded to hearing about how they can improve their situation, what pitfalls to look out for, and things that can affect their success. They do not see constructive criticism or warnings as something to defend against, but rather something to consider. You also have less than 10 posts on your account, which means you most likely unless this is a smurf account, have not ever posted hands on 2+2 which is a vital step to your success and improvement.
Please understand I am not attacking you personally, I am telling you things you should consider if you undertake this. I do not know you, but I do know life and what certain actions in life mean. For example, if you have a kid, and a girlfriend with the kid, and she is not your wife, it is very possible your kid was unplanned. Most people decide to get married before they have a kid, unless the kid was unplanned.
Most people who have sufficient financial situations do not live with their parents, especially if they have a girlfriend, especially if that girlfriend has a child with you.
Even in Colorado where the rents are getting higher, two people could share a VERY nice one bedroom place for about 750-800 each per month, and if you went the economy route you guys could be splitting a nice studio for about 500 a head per month.
The fact that you are living in your parents house instead of doing this when you have a child means you are trying to save money, or cannot afford this. Someone who was considering buying a house should at least have the financials to be able to split an apartment with their girlfriend when you guys have a kid. How many people above the age of 23 do you know personally who live with their kid and their girlfriend at their parents house? because my answer is 0. This is not meant to be mean, it is meant to put things in perspective for you.
If you live in New York City, Or San Francisco, or Laguna Beach or somewhere else with excessively high rent, then this is a little more understandable, and definitely negates my argument a bit.
1- this is not "creative criticism" it is constructive criticism, and to even call it criticism is a bit of a stretch. These are simply factors to consider in order to have the highest chance of success at what you are doing. Over 90% of people who try to play poker for a living fail ultimately, (read posts of people on 2+2 and you will see this is the general consensus) and with a dynamic like that, it is vital to take every step you can to avoid potential pitfalls. What you see as negativity, I see as practicality.
2. If your goal is to buy a house, how are you going to create a college fund for your child? Realistically, You will be paying off this house for a long time unless it is a trailer or a home under 160,000$ which is an EXTREMELY conservative number. Realistically - unless you live in north dakota or somewhere desolate with very low propertly value, you are looking at about 265,000 on the low end, and about 500,000 on the high end for a decent home in the United States. Look at the property values on Zillow for your area. Even a bank foreclosed home is going to set you back about 120,000-180,000 in the United States and thats not including the amount of money you would need to put into a home like that.
How do you expect to be able to save money for your childs college fund if you are going to spend the next 15-20 years paying off a house?
3. I have been personally given a few lessons from the professional player David "Bakes" Baker, and yes, he started me in my very first tournament at a 55$ buyin for 25k prize pool. You can look him up on hendon mob and see from his winnings he clearly knows what he is talking about.
So to answer your question, YES, you should definitely start at a much higher stake with a much higher bankroll if you are serious about this. The competition in higher stake tournaments is SIGNIFICANTLY stiffer than the micro stakes you will crush with coaching. Remember, you will have downswings, you will have to cash money out to pay for things pretty regularly. You can't be beating the game, you HAVE to be crushing it in order to be able to make enough to pay for expenses AND move up stakes AND maintain a proper bankroll for each stake.
4. It is an assumption that you will have bills and unexpected expenses? No it is an actuality.
5. I think you are in a bit of denial about this. You would not have chose the words pipe dream if you did not think it would be seen in this light.
6. You have to move up quickly because it is not easy to make mortgage payments on 300-800 dollar wins (and thats assuming you can repeatedly finish first, which is a terrible assumption because MTT's are extremely high variance games) When your buyins are low, 2, 4, 5$, that means even when you make final tables and finish in 8th or 9th, even though you are making profit, in terms of mortgage payments, these are peanuts. a 9th place finish in even a large tournament (which is still a final table finish) is going to pay out like 80$ if youre lucky. Each tournament takes a few hours to several hours depending on the player pool. This means in order to be successful you must be able to play multiple tournaments at a time and still be able to finish in the top 3 consistently. Variance alone makes this extremely difficult.
7. If you get fired from your job, if you have learned a career trade, IE programmer, coder, plumber, electrician, etc. You can get another job relatively easily as there are always demand for a job in which you have a trade certification.
You also completely decided to not address going broke or running breakeven which is a very normal possibility statistically even for a good player. This is also a bad sign as you are optimistically leaning towards this not being likely to happen.
8. Im not sure why you think this is not a legitimate concern, as the mental game of poker is equally important as the fundamentals if you want to be successful. People who dont play poker a lot (not talking about you) don't necessarily understand variance or swings and may be quick to be negative about your success if you hit a rough patch even if you are playing great. This inevitably leads to arguments which can affect your feelings, mood, and psyche. (The Poker Mindset is a book that delves on the mental aspect of poker and is a great book to help with this)
9. Again- these are not personal attacks, you do not need to feel the need to defend yourself or attack me back. I am just saying based on your planning so far, it can be scary to see your outcome, especially from someone elses perspective who is not you and doesnt understand poker or variance on the same level as you.
10. You need to be able to move up stakes so that you can have money to pay for the house, 2-3 full months of expenses set aside as a "**** happens" fund, because **** DOES happen unexpectedly. You also need money to set aside for your child, in case he has any kind of medical issue growing up or any kind of cost related expenses that were unforeseen, i.e. a bike accident when he is older, an impacted molar, braces, it could literally be anything. Its called a safety net and is different then your "**** happens" fund for yourself. Again what if your child is extremely smart and qualifies to get into Julliard or something like that, you'd want to be able to send him or her there. Im just saying while a child is wonderful and brings immense joy into your life, they are also a price tag, it comes with it. There are lots of expenses for a child. In your defense, By this time, your gf/wife will have worked for a while though, so that will help too.
If you are not in a position financially where you guys can split the rent somewhere right now, how do you expect to make mortgage payments that are about the same or a little less as rent in your area? on top of all these other things?
11. If my input was greatly appreciated, you wouldn't be childish and sarcastic and emotionally defensive in your responses. People who are successful often try and fail over and over and over again before they are wildly successful, and are always open to hear about ways they can avoid failure or learn from mistakes others have made who are doing similar journeys. They are not emotional and defensive at the slightest poking of a hole in their plan. This is not a good sign for you.
Nonetheless I have tried to shed as much light for you as I possibly can from the dabbling in playing for a living I have done myself when I was much younger, and from the success and knowledge of someone I know who has already made several million from tournaments.
At the end of the day people are going to do whatever they want to do, but perspective is invaluable, and should never be disregarded even if you do not agree with it. I will not be posting further on here, as I do not feel like you are taking me seriously, and frankly that is not worth my time.
I do however hope I am wrong and I come back to this thread many months to a year later to hear you have closed on a house.
Good Luck.
Last edited by crush305; 04-18-2019 at 04:00 PM.
Reason: its a long post, some typos were inevitable