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Old 04-23-2019, 06:06 AM   #226
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 767
Re: The next Zoom prodigy: Journey begins 2019

Originally Posted by 291 View Post
I mean it's not some complicated formula...

40bb for Villain with Ace high
100bb for you with KK on Ace high board

Villain loses 40bb every time an Ace doesn't come.
You lose 100bb every time an Ace does. Any profit you were making through villain's mistakes is severely reduced by your own stubbornness/refusal to fold. Done with this now, everybody has tried to help and is saying the same thing, might be worth considering they know something.

Let's say an ace comes what 33% of the time 2/3 of the time you make a combined 80bb with villain's mistakes and 1/3 of the time you lose 100bb. Whose losing money?

Are you just pulling numbers out of the air? There are 45 possible cards that can be dealt for the turn. There are 3 more aces left in the deck. That's a 1 in 15 chance of an ace being dealt on the turn. Which is around 7%. I have no idea how you came up with 33%. So just calling the flop bet for the villain, villain would need 14:1. And that's not even considering the chips he put in preflop. And again, I'm not defending my river call. It may be correct at some frequency, or it may not. I'm defending the hand as a whole still being profitable.

I really don't know what to say. Just so much negativity here and misinformed "facts" being defended by baseless assumptions. I'm starting to become more negative just by letting myself get mixed up in this. I know not all of you are like that. But I'm just tired of all this negativity. I'm out for now.

Maybe I'll return again at some point. I'm just gonna take a break from this madhouse and spend my time in a more useful manner. Thanks to those who were actually trying to be helpful in a positive way.
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Old Yesterday, 04:14 PM   #227
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 32
Re: The next Zoom prodigy: Journey begins 2019

I mean preflop odds of A3s v KK is like 30/70% roughly speaking...

Honestly sorry if I have caused any negativity, I don't even think your river call is that bad depending on the player, it's more the attitude of never folding that might get you into trouble. Was just trying to overstate that it's completely okay to fold when it's likely this spot is heavily underbluffed.

And just to say i feel like everyone agrees with you about everything apart from the river spot...

But yeah, maybe could have worded things more passively, honestly just passionate about trying to help, many apologies x
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