For the first point, it may just be that 3.5bb might be less profitable for Snowie than 2.2bb because neither size results in that "equilibrium" I proposed. So I don't agree that we can infer that 10bb is bad because Snowie prefers 2.2bb to 3.5bb.

You also say the range will be way too tight, which is a valid thought. But tight in relation to what? I'm not necessarily disagreeing, because that was my thought too. But if you think about it, we just need to prevent the BB's blind bet (betting 1bb to win the 0.5bb small blind) from auto-profiting. So that means total defense from all players other than the BB has to equal at least 33%. Which means, on average, each player should open an 8% range. It should be obvious enough that we'll still reach this, considering RFI ranges from later positions will be wider. In fact, we'll probably exceed this by a fair margin, which is ok because the BB is raising that 1bb with 100% of its range.

So to the next question. I do not think raising 100bb is the best choice, because it breaks that equilibrium (but in the other direction). The range would still be profitable, albeit extremely narrow. But total profit would undoubtedly be much less than opening 10bb, and probably also much less than using 2.5bb. And using these tight ranges might not prevent the BB from auto-profiting with his blind.

I'm not saying they won't adjust. They will, except maybe the biggest whales. But for one, they won't know how to adjust exactly. They will still probably call too wide. Or call with the wrong hands. Or 3bet too wide, and then call a 5bet shove too wide. They will still probably make big enough mistakes to make using this size more profitable. Don't forget about postflop play too, where they will be more uncomfortable and have more opportunities to make mistakes. And if the opposite is true, and they fold every hand to my 10bb raise, it will still be more profitable than my current 2.5bb range.

Again, it's just something I'm putting out there to hear opinions. So far, I'm not convinced that it's a bad idea. It actually seems to me to make sense in theory... ??

You're so far off where you need to be man, It's like you're incapable of listening and learning...trying to come up with sophisticated ''theory's'' in spots you won't ever have a sample for/make $ with. I get it you want to be different that's great but reality is your track record is horrible and you have gone nowhere in probably a decade. It's almost you like the idea of making threads under the theme of ''I've got the answers this time watch me win'' but the end result is the same you fail disappear and come back again like you have had some epiphany...practice a proven winning strategy then deviate gl.

I can´t say for sure if Snowie´s 2.5 bb open from ep is really the best sizing. It seems the bot got there by playing billions of hands, and I usually trust its advice. I must say I don´t think your idea here (10 bb open) makes sense, intuitively, but I would have to make some calculations for proving it, and it seems it would be like trying to reinventing the wheel when we already have a nice solution that works. Maybe if you post this in the theory forum, you will get better answers than mine hopefully.

I must also say I don´t understand why you´re trying to complicate a game that´s already complicated (that is, if you want to crush with the biggest wr possible). I can understand if it´s just curiosity, but still, you´re a weird dude, seriously.

Anyway, gl on the tables!

That's not completely true. I'm not trying to be different this time around. I was just crunching the numbers, and that's what resulted. I am currently practicing a proven winning strategy. Well, somewhat proven. I've played 75-80k hands now at nl10z, with close to a 4bb/100 winrate. Doesn't mean I'm a winner, put surely that's what the evidence points to. I'm just trying to find areas in my game that could use improvement, and my RFI ranges seem to be one. I'll post again points in favour of it:

- I was losing money with a lot of hands in the range, so cutting those hands doesn't seem like a bad idea.

- It doesn't allow my opponents to call profitably with a ton of hands like using a 2.5bb open size does. And that means if they fold more, I'll get a bigger percentage of the 1.5bb pot. And if they don't fold enough, I should get more than the 1.5bb in the pot.

- If they over-adjust and fold too much, I can print money by widening my range.

- Putting opponents in spots they're not used to causes more mistakes.

- I will still be balanced, and this range should still be profitable. It's still based on the same type of math I used to create my 2.5bb ranges, just with different sizes.

I appreciate your help in the past, and it has helped my game, even if just a little. But you haven't really told me anything about where this idea is flawed. At the very least, I'm curious to try it and see what I get called/3bet with. Could lead to some very profitable situations.

If anything, a big open-raise size will simplify things. Ranges are simpler, and postflop becomes easier to play with a smaller SPR. And yeah, I'm weird lol.

As for Snowie, I know it's played a ton of hands, but with preprogrammed raise sizes. It wouldn't know if using 10bb sizes (for instance) would be more or less profitable because it's never tried it.

Anyway, all I'm trying to do is find a way to increase my winrate in the RFI pots, and this seemed like the simplest way to do so based on how the population plays and on my current results. They call really wide, so I should price them out so that them calling becomes a mistake. And by doing so, I can stop playing the hands that are losing me money. Seems like a win-win.

cutting "bad" hands is not the way to go, you'll likely just hurt the winrate of good value hands and decrease your overall rfi winrate just like you did when you played 9/2 in your last pgc thread.

you seem to be just a very lazy person to actually put work in postflop play and just wasting your time with these 10bb nonsense plays you're stressing last couple of days.

you see some negative numbers in your tracking program and your natural response is just to avoid playing marginal spots instead of triing to figure out what you do wrong with those hands postflop, this horrible work ethic will likely make you open the next PGC in a couple of months with your nl2 to nl50 goals once again. i hope this helps a bit in your attitude, sorry about the harshness.

you just cannot make good profit in 100bb+ games by avoiding postflop play.

I don´t think his problem is bad work ethic, actually he seems to be working a lot off the tables. If I´m reading this correctly, he wants to find a winning strategy by himself, ignoring all the resources and knowledge that we already have nowadays. If he has the motivation and mental fortitude and is smart enough to do all the work without giving up eventually like on the other threads, then fine. I´m just trying to help by pointing an easier way.

Also, I´m aware that I was harsh on my last post (about your weirdness lol), and I´m sorry. Telling that someone is weird is not necessarily a bad thing, at least here where I live, but if you took it as an offense, sorry. And GL!

As someone that struggled to get into poker after a different career I'll say this.

Drop the bottom 30% of river bluff catchers you think about doing vs the pool.
Drop the bottom 10% of your worst -EV bluffs.
Overbluff vs bad regs (near all of pool) in spots they don't range protect
Learn what sizings are best in SR pots in different boards/openings
Overdefend flops/turns in commonly bluffed 2 barrels but near 0% bluffed rivers.

I wasn't trying to open bigger to cut the losing hands; I was thinking of opening bigger so that the opponents couldn't call so many hands with the correct odds against my range. The fact that I could cut those losing hands was just a result of that, which I was using as an argument in support of it. But don't worry, I'm putting that idea aside for now. You're probably right, I should just keep going in the direction I was going, which was trying to build my strategy based on already established norms and experimenting later. One thing I'll say is that I'm not afraid to try something outside the box if I think it might work better lol.

Don't worry FazendeiroBH, I didn't take offense to the weird comment. In fact, I kind of took it as a compliment hahaha. I'm not necessarily trying to find a winning strategy by myself while ignoring everything else. I just don't want to spend the money on everything else right now lol. I think I have a grasp on how to build solid ranges (pre and postflop). The only thing I'd need is time to work through it. I've already started with preflop RFI ranges, which seems to be enough to have gotten me winning (albeit not as much as I'd like) at nl10.

Thanks cardbrute, seems like solid advice.

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Last couple days, I had dropped to nl5 to try some stuff, including the bigger EP RFI sizing. As I said, I'll keep the 2.5bb sizing for now, and just keep building a "normal" strategy. Didn't have near enough of a sample size to see if the bigger sizing worked any better. I did get my 10bb open called by QJo once, but mostly just got folds.

Another thing I experimented with at nl5 was postflop play in SRP after RFI. I was just trying to see if I could cause opponents to make more mistakes (and capitalize on those mistakes) by mostly check-calling until the river, and then utilizing aggression on the river. Only had a 5k hand sample, but my RFI winrate was close to double (around 1 bb/hand). I'm not gonna incorporate that into my strategy right now. But it was good practice for both bluff-catching, and bluffing capped ranges.

I will probably stay playing nl5 for now, just cause I'm starting to feel the pressure at nl10 with the current BR. I do have 25 BIs still for nl10, but there's more pressure because of my reduced shifts at work. So going bust is not an option anymore lol. So will go back to nl10 when I have a few more BIs.

Even if 25 BIs is enough, the problem is mentally, I'll start worrying about my weakened BR and the possibility of going broke. And that will most likely affect my play. When I had 35 BIs, I felt great. I didn't worry about the possibility of losing a few BIs. But now that it's around 25 BIs, I start to worry about what if I lose a few more BIs? Then my roll won't be big enough to sustain another large downswing. I just think I need a bigger cushion to be able to play a stakes as my main stakes. So, I'll probably keep 100BIs ($200) for nl2, and then maybe build 15-20 BIs for nl5 before going back to nl10. And then try to maybe have 50 BIs at nl10 before trying to move up to nl25. Just for more peace of mind. Maybe I'm being too big of a BR nit lol. We'll see.

About check calling, esp on the flop when we´re oop vs a lp caller, I think it might be ok to check call maybe with AA or KK unimproved on boards where villain probably missed completely, or have mostly weaker hands like low/mid pps that have sdv. Still, I would lean towards betting (with smaller sizings, mostly 1/4 to 1/3x pot) with most of the remainder of my range in a spot like that.

Obv, you should evaluate your strategy carefully. Since (if you´re using an opening chart similar to the one I posted before) sometimes you should still flop very strong hands or very strong semi bluff type hands that can improve to the nuts, by not putting money until the river you´re losing too much value. Don´t forget also that part of your range may need protection. Giving free cards to villain may be too dangerous.

And yes, try not to play worried about going broke, even if you have to move down to achieve a better state of mind. After you win more bis, or get to a more comfortable financial/work situation, then you move up again.

GL!

Thanks. I didn't mean I would make check-calling until the river my new strategy. It was just something I spent a little time trying out as a possible exploitative idea. I think there is some merit to the idea versus people who can be too aggressive against "capped" ranges.

And yeah, it is giving free cards. But it's giving free cards to both of us. If he bets, then my made hands get protection. If he doesn't bet, then my draws get free cards. It just involves folding my marginal made hands more often by the river, but I'll have plenty of stronger hands.

Anyway, I'll just reiterate that I'm not looking to add that into my strategy at this time, before someone else reads this and thinks I'm doing weird stuff again lol.

Played mostly nl5 this week. Cashed out around $85 to cover the remainder of last months expenses. Rest of the month, I'll aggressively shot-take. BR at around $190 currently.

At $220 I'll move up to nl10. At $250, I'll move up to nl25. If BR goes below $200, I'll move back to nl5 and repeat. Once April comes, I'll go back to grinding nl5 until I make enough to cash out to cover remaining expenses for this month (March). After, I'll decide whether or not to try aggressively shot-taking again.

nl5 from the start:


nl10 from the start:


all stakes from the start:


Cashed out this week: $84.85 CAD ($64.94 USD)

Cash Out Total: +$86.84 CAD

----------------

Just one interesting hand for you this week lol:



PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $4.42 (VPIP: 30.28, PFR: 19.72, 3Bet Preflop: 7.02, Hands: 146)
SB: $9.94 (VPIP: 22.81, PFR: 19.30, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 58)
BB: $5.27 (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 22)
Hero (UTG): $5.41
MP: $5.80
CO: $14.36 (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 18)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A 8

Hero raises to $0.12, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.12, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.31, 2 players) 8 3 J
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN raises to $1.05, Hero calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.41, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($2.41, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, BTN checks

Are you sure your graph is alive?

them graphs look like your pretty much breaking even. have you looked at where you're losing money? do you punt off your stack a lot trying to wins hands where you should just check fold? do you cbet a lot? what do you think is causing it?

Did you change your game around hand 66k (all stakes graph)? I would check that, as it seems you´re breakeven playing that particular style (if you really changed anything, that is).

You have a nice sample to do some db analysis. One thing that I´m doing a lot recently to develop exploits is categorizing my opponents using their stats, creating aliases for each group, studying their overall stats and then thinking how to crush them. Seems to be helping. If you ever decide to subscribe to RIO or any other training site, I´d recommend theory and stat analysis videos like the ones from Julian Kopanskiy. I think they are really good stuff.

It´s too hard to get a meaningful sample from most players, but nits, loose passive, whales etc are quite predictable, so by studying what the entire subset does, you can draw nice conclusions. And tag them based on that. It´s a lot of work btw lol.

I did try to fix my rapidly declining redline. I'm actually winning at around 2.5bb/100 (all-in EV) since the change at nl10. Made a couple more minor changes at nl5; my redline is sloping a little downward now, as I'm less aggressive in some spots where I was probably a little too aggressive. But I'm 9bb/100 (all-in EV) at nl5 over a tiny sample. That of course is not counting that first 5k hands or so where I was just experimenting.

So overall, I'd say that strategy change is a positive change. At nl10, I also did punt some stacks unnecessarily, so if I were playing my 'A' game throughout, it'd be higher than 2.5bb/100. And with the smaller change I've incorporated while playing nl5, I think when I go back to nl10, I'll have a more decent winrate.

Looking at my overall graph, don't forget it includes a failed 4-5 BI shot at nl25, which kind of skews it and makes it look like I haven't won a lot. Which is true in a sense, but it doesn't reflect on my nl5/10 play.

But you included a 10nl only graph?

If your goal was to grind up and actually make money from poker cashing out is the stupidest thing you can do by an absolute mile.

You should shot taking aggressively and constantly moving up/down and putting in actual study to get better.

It's also important that you realise it doesn't matter how good you are at the moment (the answer is you are not good) but that you are working on getting as good as you can. The actions you are taking are once again detrimental to this. Saying things like "playing my a-game all the time" is what losers say to justify being a loser.

I'm not sure what this is in response to. If it's my claim of winning at 2.5 bb/100 (all-in EV) since improving the redline, I think you can see it in the graph (after the redline changes). The green line is going down, but the yellow line is going up. My winrate before the change is lower, which is why I made some small adjustments to my strategy. After playing nl5 the past week, I've made further adjustments, and you'll see big improvements in the graph (as long as it keeps up lol). When I go back to nl10 again, hopefully I'll have much better results.

I did take a 1 BI shot at nl25 a couple days ago. A few hands in, picked up QQ on the button against the big blind's AA, and that was all she wrote. Lol anyway, cashing out is a necessity right now, as I'm not making enough at work since my hours were cut. I will still move up, but just a bit slower. And I may continue taking small aggressive shots from time to time.

But for now, playing nl5. I think I'll need to cashout around $130 for March's bills. So I'll keep playing nl5 until I win that amount. Then I'll build my BR to $300 and use 10BIs for nl10.

Are you calling me a loser? I think my results at nl5/10 this time around suggest otherwise...

I think the way to look at this red/blue line issue is to not think directly about it. In my own poor understanding of the game, to have a positive or even neutral redline, you must analyze and understand what your villains are doing and what their leaks are, and then exploit them. So, if most of your villains are nits, for example, and you up your aggression vs them, you´ll have a positive redline and probably will maximize your wr there. If they are mostly big stations, I think the best approach is to forget redline and exploit them in the most obvious way possible.

But villains are different from each other, so I would recommend treating each one as a distinct individual, categorize and then exploit each one the best you can. And if there are no visible leaks, just play what you think optimal poker should be.

So, my suggestion would be to avoid thinking "I should try to fix my rapid declining red line". It will be a disaster if you try this vs the wrong type of villains. Instead, think about which type of villains fold much more than they should before showdown, and target them.

Thanks Fazendeiro. I was trying to fix the redline because of how much I let it slip. At any rate, I stopped focusing on that. It's going downward a little bit, but I don't think as badly as before.

This past week was such a brutal week. Was under EV by quite a bit. My draws also haven't been completing since I started nl5 (as you can tell by the luck bell curve). My opponents are turning or rivering sets or other better hands, and this is happening in the bigger pots. I'm still winning some pots from getting opponents to make calls with "bad" hands. But the run-bad was bad enough to cause me to take a couple days off from playing.

Also took a 1 BI shot at nl25 at the start of last week like I mentioned earlier, which went south after running QQ into AA. But almost all hands this week were at nl5.

NL5 since the start:


Luck bell curve at nl5 since the start:


Cashed out this week: $0
Cash Out Total: +$86.84 CAD

I'm just venting right now, as I just finished another session where I was another 3 BIs under EV, and ran like crap when it came to draws getting there. I'm trying to take solace in the fact that I'm probably crushing this level if I was even just running normal. Below is the graph and luck bell curve for nl5 without the first 5k hands or so where I was just experimenting.





I know others have experienced much worse, and I should expect this type of thing to happen. And I know I shouldn't complain, since my all-in EV at nl10 was just the opposite. But it's all coming apart so fast. I just have to keep at it, and wait for luck to come back to normal. Hopefully, not too long.

In the meantime, I'm gonna try to spend an hour a day working on my strategy. This way, at least I'll have some positive vibes coming from the fact that my game is getting stronger, rather than stagnant (as it's been the past few weeks). First thing I'm doing is revamping my RFI ranges. After playing around with Flopzilla, I've realized my ranges are too much weighted towards speculative suited connector type hands. That includes my calling-3bet ranges and 4bet ranges.

I've also made a change before today's session; 3betting more, and not calling any open-raises from any position other than the big blind. 3Bet% has gone from around 6 to around 11. Seems to be a positive change, but will work on "proper" 3bet ranges after I finish tweaking the RFI ranges.

Just to finish off, here's an example of the type of hand that's been happening much too often over the past week. I know I should be happy that they are squeezing my EP open and calling a 4bet with hands like QJo. And I am. But very frustrating when this type of thing keeps happening in big pots. Ok, I'm done venting now lol.

----------

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $5.00 (VPIP: 28.95, PFR: 26.32, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 40)
SB: $8.40 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
BB: $8.38 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 24)
Hero (UTG): $5.12
MP: $1.66 (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: $5.75 (VPIP: 26.79, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K K

Hero raises to $0.12, fold, CO calls $0.12, BTN raises to $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.15, CO calls $1.03, fold

Flop: ($2.87, 2 players) 4 J 5
Hero bets $0.91, CO calls $0.91

Turn: ($4.69, 2 players) J
Hero checks, CO bets $3.69 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.06 and is all-in

River: ($10.81, 2 players) A

Don't worry about QJ player, cause on the long run they won't win money. Don't worry about ev line, if you have a good bankroll management there is no problm about it, being up it means you're playing well, nothing to do about it.

But I would bet more on that flop and acording to the notes/player more on pre-flop

Don´t worry too much about this particular hand, it happens a lot at these stakes. I think you played it well.

Thanks guys. I'm still confident in my game; that part hasn't changed. Just was frustrated because of how badly the green line has been going lately. But you know what? I think now's the best time to take aggressive shots again. Confidence is still high, and just had a very bad run of luck. Luck's gotta turn around sooner or later, right? Why not be at the higher stakes when it does?

So, temporary plan for the next little while is to move back to nl10 now (BR is at $150). If I grow it to $225, then I'll take a 5 BI shot at nl25. If BR goes below $100, I'll move back to nl5. And if it goes below $50, I'll drop down to nl2. Aggressive, but I'm in the mood to be aggressive with my BRM right now. At least for the first half of this month. Hopefully I find a heater around the corner..

As long as you really drop down following the BR guidelines above, I think it´s a solid plan . GL!