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at my wits end on long downswing at my wits end on long downswing

08-26-2018 , 11:13 PM
Maybe your getting colluded against. I tend to get off tables where I think guys are trying to see saw me post flop out of pots. If its the same 2 guys doing it over and over again. I just leave and find another table. I really watch for collusion play not just on the felt but off the felt if I am running really bad I go through my hand history and see if the same 2 players are in the big pots I lost. If thats true and i see them sitting me again on a table i just leave. But also don't make that an excuse for why your losing either. Its probably a little bit of both. But to be honest man i have crushed fishy sites. My red line goes way down but my win rate over massive hand sample is over 15bbs on 6 max. But one thing i do is leave tables I don't feel comfortable on. I tend to leave tables against aggro players on my left as well. Those are key factors you should also consider to make your win rate go up more. You could be playing fine but your sitting with tough players on your left. I am not saying to bum hunt either. You wont get better playing weak players. Fish an donks have tiny brs that aren't worth messing with anyways. I enjoy playing against the tough players to get some hand history on them and see what they are doing to beat me. But just not on my direct left. But those are just suggestions outside of your play that might be part of the downswing.
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08-26-2018 , 11:49 PM
H1 river bet is bad vs pop who will almost never be on the level to fold jx, h2 obviously wp. 3bbev/100 is top of winrate for some1 who is learning at micros move up as soon as you have br.
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08-26-2018 , 11:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerforumposter
H1 river bet is bad vs pop who will almost never be on the level to fold jx, h2 obviously wp.
I actually agree with that and give up on the river is my standard line. Just decided to make the rare bluff there to maybe fold something like 99 or A high that might have floated since he was trending to be a whale when I reached the riv w/ Q high.

Last edited by WorldzMine; 08-27-2018 at 12:26 AM.
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08-27-2018 , 12:10 AM
https://play.globalpoker.com/poker-c...4b050b97511f2e

Working off some themes brought up in this thread, I'm trying to avoid overfolding against regs.
V in this hand looks to be a pretty aggressive reg, though don't have many hands on him.
Typically I'd xf turn against 100% cbet, but we do have to defend a fair bit after 33% flopsize was used, and not sure if our obvious defends (pair+fd and better) are enough.
A8 looks really borderline and turns out it's a mix.



Still feels like it should be a turn fold given how aggressive the GTO turn barrel range is for IP:



In other words, V has to be approximating the GTO strat (which involves barreling hands like T7hh, T8hh, 97ss, in order to force us to defend our most marginal GTO defends.


^In my mind this is an example of a light study task, didn't learn a lot we didn't already know, and didn't analyze any actual observed tendency in an opponent.
Will also be looking to do some longer and more in depth studies as well, mostly involving taking a hand played by an opponent that deviates from what we consider to be theoretically sound/optimal and see what our response should be.
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08-27-2018 , 12:48 AM
Shouldn't need PIO to know turn is easy fold.
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08-27-2018 , 02:11 AM
dont think ur using pio right
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08-27-2018 , 02:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
dont think ur using pio right
like you even fuken have pio
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08-27-2018 , 03:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
dont think ur using pio right
ok, ill bite...? how so?


Global roll is up close to 30 BIs since thread began
Ignition is down 5 or so

Last edited by RalphWaldoEmerson; 08-27-2018 at 03:57 AM.
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08-27-2018 , 03:55 AM
Quote:
Re: volume, it has def been too low, had a bunch of IRL stuff from Sep-Dec last year, then Asian apps are super low for hands/hr.
I get 560 hands an hour and ik guys getting over 650. It is possible to multitable these games on a PC. Also the meta of NL games on China apps vs American sites is very very different and I often see people struggling to adjust.

IMO these apps would be your best way forward, hmu if you wanna chat re this any more.
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08-27-2018 , 03:59 AM
global confirmed soft as fk
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08-27-2018 , 04:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
I get 560 hands an hour and ik guys getting over 650. It is possible to multitable these games on a PC.
Yeah I had friends doing the whole emulators thing, I have one American buddy who played very high stakes on there, and said the emulators were constantly giving him problems, crashing his grind in 5fig+ pots etc.
I stuck with the iPads for a couple months getting in low volume. lost a bunch, variance was insane, I had already been losing for a while before joining Asian sites, and I was just ready to get back onto sites I had a proven WR on and leave that **** behind.
Maybe not my highest EV decision in the grand scheme but I doubt I'm ever going back.

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
Also the meta of NL games on China apps vs American sites is very very different and I often see people struggling to adjust.
how so? or is that proprietary knowledge
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08-27-2018 , 12:20 PM
You said you lost a lot of money on the asian apps.

How many hands did you play there?
Were you running below ev?
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08-28-2018 , 02:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson
Yeah I had friends doing the whole emulators thing, I have one American buddy who played very high stakes on there, and said the emulators were constantly giving him problems, crashing his grind in 5fig+ pots etc.
I stuck with the iPads for a couple months getting in low volume. lost a bunch, variance was insane, I had already been losing for a while before joining Asian sites, and I was just ready to get back onto sites I had a proven WR on and leave that **** behind.
Maybe not my highest EV decision in the grand scheme but I doubt I'm ever going back.



how so? or is that proprietary knowledge
You won't have issues with emulators crashing if you have core i7 8700k or better and 16gb+ ram. With that you can 10 table for hours on end and it'll never crash. Obviously a stable internet connection is a virtue esp when you don't have timebanks for disconnections.

iPads simply can't compete because you can run a HUD on a lot of Asian sites now if you're using emulators.

Re adjusting to the meta, there's a number of nuanced things that playing with a HUD really illuminates. I.e. the guys with 53/7/3 stats, their river aggression always means the same thing. The massively multiway nature of the games also cause many high variance situations that I think a lot of regs deal very poorly with, especially if playing without a HUD. On Stars the average pot is heads up, occasionally multiway. On PM the average pot is 4-way, occasionally HU or 3way or 5way, navigating these scenarios requires significant preflop adjustments. With average RFI being 5x and average stack being 100bb, combined with high population barrel frequency , this creates very shallow SPRs and poor visibility that also require nuanced pre and flop play.

I think people with background of Stars or whatever American site who have played FR before who jump into Chinese app games on an iPad with no HUD and no ability to profile player types at the table will generally have a tough time coming up with an appropriate strategy.
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08-28-2018 , 05:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
You won't have issues with emulators crashing if you have core i7 8700k or better and 16gb+ ram. With that you can 10 table for hours on end and it'll never crash. Obviously a stable internet connection is a virtue esp when you don't have timebanks for disconnections.



iPads simply can't compete because you can run a HUD on a lot of Asian sites now if you're using emulators.



Re adjusting to the meta, there's a number of nuanced things that playing with a HUD really illuminates. I.e. the guys with 53/7/3 stats, their river aggression always means the same thing. The massively multiway nature of the games also cause many high variance situations that I think a lot of regs deal very poorly with, especially if playing without a HUD. On Stars the average pot is heads up, occasionally multiway. On PM the average pot is 4-way, occasionally HU or 3way or 5way, navigating these scenarios requires significant preflop adjustments. With average RFI being 5x and average stack being 100bb, combined with high population barrel frequency , this creates very shallow SPRs and poor visibility that also require nuanced pre and flop play.



I think people with background of Stars or whatever American site who have played FR before who jump into Chinese app games on an iPad with no HUD and no ability to profile player types at the table will generally have a tough time coming up with an appropriate strategy.


Great post +1
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08-28-2018 , 05:41 AM
4-way pots, 5x RFI, high barreling frequency. Seems like an easy game to beat. Just wait for premium hands and trap the **** out of everyone.
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08-28-2018 , 06:13 AM
yea wait for premiums with 3 blinds and big antes, great plan
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08-28-2018 , 06:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade
yea wait for premiums with 3 blinds and big antes, great plan
I didn't know about the extra blinds and antes. That potentially changes everything.
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08-28-2018 , 06:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
4-way pots, 5x RFI, high barreling frequency. Seems like an easy game to beat. Just wait for premium hands and trap the **** out of everyone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade
yea wait for premiums with 3 blinds and big antes, great plan
Yeah, you're both right. In a sense there's no magic bullet and even though a lot of players are playing 40/8/3 or something around that, it's not necessarily EZ game. Especially if you're on an iPad and can't differentiate between a 9/7/2 guy and a 37/27/20 or a 56/4/0.7... This causes huge strategic problems because you're forced to play a some sort of solid approach vs "population" - but with the stark differences in player type, if you wanna win money you really have to be applying vastly different strategies against each of these player types. If you try blanket strat vs the pool (like you might at Zone for ex), you're going to go on the sickest downswing imaginable... exacerbated by the multiway nature and shallow depths, stdev of this game gets insane unless you're meticulously adjusting your approach on a per villain basis.
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08-28-2018 , 07:20 AM
it's very clear there was cheating on the chinese apps. I knew i was cheated because I broke even over 45k hands in the games where my winrate would have been around 30bb-40/100, given how ridic soft it was (with super low rake). Statistical evidence is stronger than the laws of physics, and stronger than the cheater showing you videos of their collusion.
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08-28-2018 , 07:35 AM
The redline is something you should definitely worry about. Typically it is a result of overfolding too much in most spots, and not bluffing enough in lines outside of 3barrel, since 3barrel stats are very easy to learn and everyone pays attention to them. You should be very attentive to how much lines like b/x/b, x/x/b, turn probe, delay cbet, and more obscure lines like b/x/br work.

Regs still have significant leaks. Example; On average zoom500 regs fold to turn probe at 51% frequency, when pio is around 32% vs 2/3 size turn probes for bu vs bb. Most of the 10knl regs on stars have these leaks too. So i mean these are top tier players and you can auto profit with some lines vs most of them. look for those kind of lines and make monies exploiting them.

what is your fold to flop cbet IP? . Pio folds 22-24% IP vs those 1/3 sizings. Given the mixed sizings you face it should be around 30%

Last edited by Stroggoz; 08-28-2018 at 07:41 AM.
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08-28-2018 , 09:13 AM
OK, i didn't notice the stats you posted on page 1, (skipped over them apparently). And i cant edit my previous post on 2p2.

The major leak you have is that your just overfolding massively. You have 50% fold to flop cbet. That is way, way too high. it should be around 30% IP and 35% oop. I'd suggest studying properly with piosolver, and running many scripts/aggregation reports, and learning excel spreadsheet.

Looking at your very high river folds it seems like you may be underestimating your opponents ability. I know ignition is super soft but your river fold % suggests to me that you think your opponents never bluff whatsoever on the river, or don't go thin at all. I doubt that's the case.

There are a lot of stats that arn't in the screenshot, you'll be wanting to find all the lines the population overfolds too and bluff a lot there.

Someone said your oop cbet is too high. I don't think that's necessarily true. It is higher than what pio does, but regs overfold to oop cbets, especially in single raised spots. (at least for the z500 games i play they are overfolding to oop cbet in single raised pots by about 10%, quite significant).

Last edited by Stroggoz; 08-28-2018 at 09:21 AM.
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08-28-2018 , 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stroggoz
it's very clear there was cheating on the chinese apps. I knew i was cheated because I broke even over 45k hands in the games where my winrate would have been around 30bb-40/100, given how ridic soft it was (with super low rake). Statistical evidence is stronger than the laws of physics, and stronger than the cheater showing you videos of their collusion.
lol
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08-29-2018 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaznin
You said you lost a lot of money on the asian apps.
How many hands did you play there?
Were you running below ev?
Idk how many hands, 3-4 tables for like 8 weeks, 20-25 hours a week? Not a lot. I'd say I was def running under EV by a decent amount.
I also wasn't in great clubs so I had a lot of problems getting tables started and also wasn't in a great position to snipe seats vs. someone playing on a PC that can have 10 tables open in the background.

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
Yeah, you're both right. In a sense there's no magic bullet and even though a lot of players are playing 40/8/3 or something around that, it's not necessarily EZ game. Especially if you're on an iPad and can't differentiate between a 9/7/2 guy and a 37/27/20 or a 56/4/0.7... This causes huge strategic problems because you're forced to play a some sort of solid approach vs "population" - but with the stark differences in player type, if you wanna win money you really have to be applying vastly different strategies against each of these player types. If you try blanket strat vs the pool (like you might at Zone for ex), you're going to go on the sickest downswing imaginable... exacerbated by the multiway nature and shallow depths, stdev of this game gets insane unless you're meticulously adjusting your approach on a per villain basis.
I could see peoples stats on the ipad by tapping on their name, and I would often find the fish and edit their player name and insert the stats there so I wouldn't have to tap. But like I said I wasn't in great clubs, the 8/9max tables with such shallow stacks made it feel like constantly playing an MTT, and yeah I probably had some issues making adjustments.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stroggoz
and not bluffing enough in lines outside of 3barrel, since 3barrel stats are very easy to learn and everyone pays attention to them. You should be very attentive to how much lines like b/x/b, x/x/b, turn probe, delay cbet, and more obscure lines like b/x/br work.
Yeah that's a great point. I really liked Doug Polks HU content because he went through the gametrees he built on opponents and showed how to load up your bluffs into the most overfolded lines, and I think he found people were playing pretty reasonably on flops but the delay lines could be attacked really hard.
One of my study goals is to try to do my own game tree for say, a BTN-BB or BVB spot, shouldn't be too hard to approximate.
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08-29-2018 , 03:26 AM
I installed this computer usage tracking app called RescueTime last week and and from Fri-Mon I logged 20hours of grinding. Fairly happy with that.
I'm starting a part time job for personal enrichment, the training for which is taking up 15-20 hours a week right now, so if I can try to get in 35 hours a week of poker, that seems like a solid amount.
Also helps to see how much time you waste on the Internet, 2p2 is only mildly productive to me to the extent that I discuss some light strat, and I need to work on limiting my random youtube binges.
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08-29-2018 , 12:50 PM
gl sir w everything
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