Hand 2
This hand is more about not having balls than making a bad play. It's about not bluffing when you need to.
Blinds are $1/$2 and villain is young kid who is probably the 2nd or even best player I had played with in the whole time I was in Vegas. He just knew when to bluff and just seemed to know where he was every hand. He only played on the weekends and was a student and a local. Anyway it folds to him like UTG+2 or something and he makes it $10 (could be doing this with all suited-connecters and better), someone calls, and me in the CO with 4
5
makes it $40. Stacks are like $500 effective between me and young-raiser. I had made it $40 similarly like this a few hands before I think versus the same kid but with KK and so finally wanted to have a three-betting experience since no one ever raises enough preflop OOP light enough to make light 3-bets (IMO) profitable, but I'm a fish so what do I know.
I know villain calls but either the player who called the $10 after calls or the BB overcalls and he folds. I don't remember but I know it was three-handed and I was in position vs. two other players and one of them being the open raiser kid who was the kid who played on weekends and was the genius.
Flop ($120): 3
7
K
God, what a good flop for my hand, especially the freaking king. I didn't know whether to bet half-pot or three-fourths pot since I was inexperienced in these sorts of spots where you three-bet and get two callers in position. Looking back on it I feel I should have bet $90 but I bet $60 and only got the one kid to call who was the original raiser.
Turn ($240): T
I believe. This is so a blank and if I were to bet it would be $150. And I knew if I did I would have had to bet big on the river which I knew I should have done but since I figured I was just going to miss my draw I didn't want to fire the turn knowing I had would have had to shove the river. But lets look at the math (and here's why I feel my check on the turn was a mistake):
If my opponent has AKo, which I feel is his average best hand here, I have 26% equity. The question then we need to ask is, if I’m risking $150 to win $240, how often do I need to be winning to break-even?
If I win five times in a row, that's a profit of $1200 and to lose that I'd have to lose eight times in a row ($150 x 8). So…
1. +240
2. +240
3. +240
4. +240
5. +240
6. -150
7. -150
8. -150
9. -150
10. -150
11. -150
12. -150
13. -150
I only need to win 5/13 times to make the bet profitable, or 38%. And considering I already have 26% equity against his hand that's never folding to a turn bet, I only need 12% fold equity and considering sometimes he's folding weaker kings, draws, and lesser pairs, and not just always AK that would make a bet here extremely profitable and really the only reason I didn't was because I didn't have balls and didn't want to lose my whole stack on the next street and that's not what poker should be about.
As for the hand was played, I checked the turn, the river came a 4
and genius value-towned the hell out of me with a $35 bet with Kx. Looking back on it this is just such a clear bet on the turn that I knew even then I should have done but was just too chicken to do and now I even have proof that I should have bet. He had like K2 suited or something and would most likely have folded the turn and especially the river if I had bet. Even if I make my hand on the river after checking, this is still a bad spot to check. Online I would have bet (play money lol) but damn live poker is hard sometimes. It really is just the idea of blowing all your $600 that you worked 9 hours for on a stone-cold bluff (which is why I checked) and you really shouldn't think of poker like that and really only think of the math.
Hand 3: king-high flush in limped pot
Hand 4: middle pair against 1/2-1/3 reg (ELL) who had flush
Hand 5: A377 with KJdd
Hand 6: QQ oop vs 3bet by live donk
Hand 7: KK on J634A
to be continued...
Last edited by garyoak123; 11-02-2014 at 12:09 AM.