I tried to do my first range analysis of a board runout, without using piosolver, since that is too much investment for my current bankroll. Feedback appreciated. And if you happen to have piosolver I would love to see how it solves this flop and board runout, so I can compare the optimal with my first attempt.
Starting range UTG 40bb+ MTT 9man.
Raise to 2.5x, BU calls. Flop:
First draft for how to play my range: Red bet, blue x/call, grey x/fold
Total combos: 152
Bet: 45 combos, 30% -
check/call: 44 combos, 29%
check/fold: 63 combos, 41%
To get a few more bet combos, and less check/fold perhaps we should add that we bet when we have AhQx and AhJx.
So bet: 51 combos, check/call 44 combos, check/fold 57 combos. Perhaps we should also bet when we have two diamonds and 2 overs to a 7 and 4?
The bet has 19 combos of bluffs, and 32 combos of value. Seems like we should also bluff with any back door diamond draw.
Should I have a check/raise range on this flop, or is it fine to play without one?
Perhaps it is a mistake to not bet KK? Problem is we block him having a K which is the most likely hand we can get 3 streets of value from, but he can have a flush draw and we can get two streets. So might be a mistake not to bet a monster like KK.
We bet and V calls. Turn is:
We now do the following:
That is, we continue to bet with any K we betted flop, continue with any flushdraw that doesn’t have a pair, continue with AA and 77. We x/call with those flushdraws that now have second pair, and we x/fold the 6 comboes of AQo and AJo that had a heart we betted with on the flop.
Combos we bet with: 40, 78%
x/fold 6 – 10%
x/call 5 – 10%
River is:
This is how we proceed:
We value bet river with AK, AA, 77 – 28 combos. We x/call with KQs no hearts 3 combos, and value bet with KQs heart, though it may be a bit thin?
We bluff with all our missed flush draws – 8 in total.
Problem at river: we have only 8 bluffs, and 28 value bets. Is the “optimal” number 14 bluffs? Another problem is that we are bluffing with bad hands – hands that block V having a flush. Seems like it would be more optimal to x/fold my fd on the river, and instead have some other bluffs on the river that doesn't block his FD.
It feels like my range kinda falls apart at the river, which means that I have done something wrong at flop/turn. We don't even have any hands we check/fold with. We could put some FDs into x/fold, but then we just have even fewer bluffs.
Last edited by haqpod; 07-25-2018 at 02:30 AM.