8x SNE in one year. $1,000,000 in rb. #MillionClub.

My name is Alex Wice. This thread will crosspost weekly posts from my blog. (You can find it by clicking my name and going to "About Me." There is already one post about #MC, called "I Believe In Turtles.") The first "real" post will start on Jan 7th but I will take questions almost every day. You can also follow me on twitter.

There's also a special introduction post below.

The first week my blog about 8x SNE came out, it got a few thousand hits after a butterfly effect spread a single tweet I made on twitter. So I feel there might be a market for wanting to interact with me through this thread. I debated whether I wanted to risk exposing myself to the public -- it's no surprise that most of my posts are not well received. I decided to risk it.

AW

Dec 26th, 2012

Introduction

I think this PG&C thread, (and #MC in general) is unique. Most people with a goal here are integrating poker as something leading to increased happiness overall; they aren't willing to sacrifice happiness for money. I am. Like a monk, I am willing to give up everything. I agree that this goal is supremely unhealthy in some sense. Instead of the ideal of a balanced lifestyle, I've gravitated towards the degenerate. But you know what? **** everything, baby. Money over everything, leggo.

Why this thread? This task is very hard and support does help immensely. I know emotional support helps greatly because I have studied research on people in supermax prisons, prisoners of war, or just people in general living isolated lifestyles. I understand the risks to my mind and sanity. And even to my body, because there is a dualism. Stressing my mind makes me physically sick. Sometimes after 30 tabling hypers over a certain period of time, I want to throw up.

I also realize that due to my "money over everything" and "**** everyone" attitudes that I alienate support for me. I'm willing to accept that there will be haters. (Maybe the whole thread will be haters, imagine that trainwreck hah.) Btw, "**** everyone" includes myself. For the next year, I am nothing but a button clicker. My existence is marginalized in some sense.

Part of the way I am is maybe because of how I grew up. I grew up without any friends and more or less maintained that throughout life. Maybe because I push people away, maybe because of my ego. Some positive and some negative things surfaced because of that. My offbeat poker style comes because I study poker alone -- which might be bad if you aren't an experienced thinker, and good if you are. I consider myself an experienced thinker, because thinking is basically all I do and have ever done. The negative is that I feel lonely. But maybe that is an asset in this goal. After all, I won't be as lonely relative to other people that might attempt something like this. Maybe that allows me to do this where others would not be able to. I've also considered that this goal is an extreme rationalization of my loneliness, manifested by the desire for external acceptance. That's a legitimate point.

I don't care anymore about why. All I'm thinking about is Vegas and the f***ing Mirage. Here, the Mirage is a million dollars. I don't want to count my chickens, but I really hope I don't fail at this goal. After this, I plan to leave poker, and use that money to help build the company I am in. I work in a company with 4 other people from MIT, making a videogame. Part of the reason I really want to do this is because all of the other 4 members are smarter than me -- the team is really solid and I feel really lucky to get "in on the ground floor" on something amazing. I've realized, like many other people (strassa comes to mind), that poker is not the true endgame. To win at poker is to not have to play. At least, for me. It depends who you are and what you have a chance of doing.

Poker can be very competitive if you want it to be. Between unique/innovative setups for playing many tables, HUDs, very advanced equity modelling, charts, methods of studying to absorb information fastest, ways of studying postflop hands, etc. it seems foolish to share how you are doing things. I don't know how much strategy talk will be here. I am sorry about this.

When I started Jan 1st, I started with $3k online and a dream -- SNE. That dream took me to SNGs (which I knew nothing about) and eventually took me to $200 hypers. In 2012 I ran above 0% roi pre rb in high stakes games. (Don't know exact result and don't care to know, but I won significantly more than my rakeback in 2012.)

In January of 2013 there is a twist. Instead of going at 8x pace I will go at 12x+ pace. That will get me done my first SNE by the end of January, and give me some free days incase anything goes wrong. Also hopefully it will demoralize weaker regs from sitting too much, since I will be in every game. I am not willing to put vpps over money though. If conditions necessitate, I will optimize for maximum $/h, not vpp/h. Hopefully these goals will align. But at minimum I will get 8x for the whole year.

This goal isn't talk. Over the past couple of months I have been reshaping my life solely to be able to do this. I lost 20 lbs (and will lose more), have very good nutrtion overall and a very good computer setup. This includes chair, gloves, eyewear, a heated room [I heat the room +3C to increase circulation and reduce symptoms of anxiety], towel, humidifier/air purifier, backup internet, backup power, mouse/keyboard, etc. Every setup inside and outside of poker is perfect. And by perfect, I mean catered specifically towards the goal. Winning over everything.

I have also secretly practiced stretches of > 20k vpp days, even playing 8 hours a day straight 24 tabling hypers (probably equal to 60 tabling 180s in terms of decisions - no idea) is a joke. We'll see how I feel in a month, it's a long race though and I respect that. But in terms of practice at multitabling very hard, I even feel somewhat comfortable 30 tabling hypers for a long time. And the key here is "a long time" -- anyone can table hard for 30 minutes, but 3 hours is a very different ballgame, and 12+ hours with minimal breaks is completely insane.

Regarding drug use, I find that drug use is poor for something like this because I need to be ready every day. Drugs are good for things like studying for an exam, but unlike an exam I can't afford any drug induced "crashes" afterwards. However I have not ruled out drug use in cases where I am in a bind, but I am trying very hard to not have to go down that road by being well ahead of pace.

I also have an additional challenge - its hard for me to get good sleep. I don't know why but after 4 hours I generally wake up in the night. Speaking to very very experienced doctors that I respect, their leading hypothesis that I agree with, is that it is because I have maintained a discombobulated lifestyle for too long -- staying up until exhaustion and then sleeping whenever and however long I want, for more than a decade. I hope this naturally goes away as I maintain order in my life.

I don't want to go into detail of my setup, but I have optimized the display rate of everything to minimize the amount of time between when I see a decision and when I make it. I have also built a routine to help me table very hard which includes hypnotherapy and supplements to boost the vitality of my central nervous system. However, regarding how hard I choose to table, we will have to play by ear because I don't know the long term effects of fatigue (2+ weeks), I only understand short term effects. I am not willing to tolerate much of an error rate since edges in hypers are very thin.

I think that January will be the hardest month. Competition will be abound. Also there may not be very many games at times. There are many unknowns. I feel that if I can survive January, I can probably survive anything.

To prepare for downswings psychologically, I have started with $65k in my account, which hopefully is enough. I also am not backed, was not backed in 2012 and have no desire to be backed currently, so all the money will be mine. Now, swings in hypers are much higher than people think, due to selection bias. Basically, regs are more likely to be regs if they ran hot. Since few have a good sized sample, it is easy to think that games are less variance and more profitable (in terms of roi) than they actually are. Only by using simulations and getting big sample sizes can we be sure.

I'm reminded about an injoke I have to myself about a missing sky blue ferrari. Have you seen my bay bay blue bay bay bay bay?

Ayy bay bay. F*** a lambo. F*** everyone, money over everything. Ferrari F50. #MC

AW

Gl!

Will be the sickest if you do it, in for the ride.

Have you got any props on this because it sounds like you probably should do.

gl

No props, I don't want the additional anxiety, I don't really want my results to be public (because usually there would be a > $0 profit stipulation) or to have to bend to extra conditions (such as appearing on webcam or chatting etc.)

Plus there is some chance I fail or desire to leave early due to unknown / unforseen conditions, if I fail without betting then I would be well off, if I bet a large amount and fail then I would be destitute, the risk isn't worth it. Not to say that I will fail, because I don't think I will. But there is no need to have additional risk.

If I win, $1m is enough.

it makes me cringe when someone supports rick ross as an artist but whatever, will be epic if you complete this and well, even if you dont and you're somewhere close it'll be sick.

also hope that you dont get to the end of this and realise you've lost so much in other aspects of life that it wasn't even worth it.

good luck!

wow this seems impossible gl

if bigger hypers come out, will you play them?

300's? 500's? 1000's?

This right there is my fear as well. 30tabling hypers for a year must be sick torture on your mind. You will come out a different person, and I am afraid not in a good way...

I want at minimum 500bi+ for the stake I play, with atleast 2/3 of that money online. Not for BR reasons but for psychological reasons. Maybe even more money if the stakes get larger than 300s. So it depends when they come out. In general I feel overall I will be the best player, so there is no reason not to. If not right now, then soon.

I do not want to be crushed by a bad downswing psychologically, since I have to play every day. So I will avoid games that are too high for me for this reason. However, I am playing hard every day, it won't be long to get 500 or 1000bi or whatever that I deem necessary. But in general I would play 300s with 100k+ in my account, and 500s with 150k+ in my account. For 1000s, maybe 250k or game selected. It also depends on how frequently they run. If it is relatively infrequent, I'm willing to take a shot.

I will likely start ~16-24 tabling and see how it goes, but ~28+ is definitely on the table. I also have the benefit of experience: when you practice this, your ability improves a lot. So maybe my 30 tabling "feels like" 20 tabling to another reg one day -- making it a lot easier.

also if you like motivational music, meek mill is definitely worth a check, the whole dreamchasers mixtape is good.

Much respect to you man, not sure if it can be done but best of luck. Also you will get a day of 2x vpp when you hit sne if you hit it first.

Haha, problem is that I can't listen to music with lyrics because it decreases playing ability. Yeah.
edit: I already listened to 'take you home' on that mixtape a long time ago, just remembered.


huh? where did you read this?

Let me know here or on skype if you change your mind about the prop bet side

Unreal what you are doing if you do it,very impressive (if you do 50% of what you said it will be pretty amazing to)

Good luck (unless we do a prop bet)

Thanks, last thing I want is people rooting against me, so I think I'll pass haha

Its on stars vip changes website. Its a day of your choice too, so wcoop main event day grind out 2k sats get 200k vpps in a day is possible sure jorj95 has made 100k in a day before playing these sats.

pokerstars said the first person to 1m, gets a 24 hour span for 2x vpps.

http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/2012/r...nd-125316.html

LOOOOOOOOOOOOL thats pretty hilarious. I think that's like the nut low prize or something too. Your prize? Grind 365 days, get 1 free!

I think I have moderate chances to win first SNE, but if someone wants to beat me at satellites they certainly can -- the games I play don't pay the most rake per hour. I'm mostly focused on my own pace instead of others.

Edit: The deck seems okay, maybe the prize overall is fine.

Is it not worth learning the sats for the huge extra vpps you can get around tcoop, scoop, wcoop and tuesdays? Like you say you have to be comfortable but this has to be a string to your bow to maximise rake paid?

It's similar to the "first SN" prize. It's like a marathon runner trying to win a 400m race. Someone else will win the 400m race, not me. I didn't practice to win a sprint.

Also, learning sats to the level that allows you to get 100k vpp in a day or whatever is very difficult. You have to be playing nosebleed stakes. In general I will just focus on and optimize for the goal (net $$$) and treat these things as a bonus (which they are -- too relatively insignificant to optimize for.)

I like your attitude. How old are you?

Whats your estimates for ROI and hourly post rb?