NL 10, 2681 hands, -45.33 usd net won, -16.9 bb/100, -16.4 EV bb/100
I have started thinking about how most people don't use rng. That means it's often easier to guess what they have. Many runouts don't help their range.
Hand against thommehh. NL 50 preflop charts allow some calling with AA, 21.5% to be exact here. I should just go all-in on turn. Double fd means more aggression.
Flop scared the shlt out of me. Wizard doesn't care. QQ overbets more than checks. JJ does even more overbetting. I already knew this concept. The weaker overpairs do more betting for protection. TT is a small exception. Maybe because it blocks villain's TT and T9s continuing hands. I should raise his flop bet, but I was still seeing straights all over my pants. My turn fold is hailed as a big blunder, and truth be told, he could have any kind of air. Interestingly my gut says it's fine to fold.
The bet sizes are all wonky, so I can't really use wizard on this hand. I thought AK would be a nice bluff combo representing AA, KK. The thing is he can't ever have those overpairs. I would like to bluff with A7 blocking 67s and A6s, but that's a pair and I would just check river.
Wizard suggests c-raising turn all-in! Insanity. Bluffs are Qx hands. River is bit of an overplay. If I had AsQ, then I could go all-in.
Overplaying my hand. Potting flop is okayish, but river is deemed terrible. Supposedly villain should check back most of his turn flushes. Probably that doesn't happen in reality, but surely there are some left. The fact that villain tanked before calling AQ blocking flush shows how bad I play.
Another big online tournament between elite players just finished. Magnus won Hikaru in the finals. Magnus hasn't been very successful lately, so it must have felt good to finally win something else than lichess arena. Mamedyarov beat Aronian for the bronze medal. The war between their countries is just a few months behind so some nationalistic sparks were undoubtedly flying around. Mamedyarov still has a big red post on his instagram saying "Armenia kills children". Maybe some of the tension will disappear now that Aronian has plans to join USA. I didn't really follow the tournament much, but I did notice one interesting game in the finals.
This was a wild game with multiple mistakes. What winning move did Carlsen miss?
Can you find a cool way to draw the game?