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Old 11-09-2020, 12:14 AM   #476
megalomaniac23
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Is 20knl typo?
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Old 11-09-2020, 06:24 AM   #477
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Quote:
So last week or so for me has basically been dominated by the election.
Same. Oddly enough I managed to also fade a COVID scare that ran nearly concurrent to the election and the ensuing electoral shenanigans.

Agree with nearly all of the points both regarding Trump being an utter POS person and the election market. Also my largest bet ever but not nearly as large as yours.

My biggest bets in order were:
Biden to flip one or more states (1.145)
Pop vote (1.14~)
Dems to maintain control of House (1.13)

Also had Biden election, Dems U 310.5 ECs, some states, and a Senate bet. This last one looks like the sole loser but with the run-offs won't know either way until January.

When the dust settles after all the ballots are counted (and re-counted) I believe the results will much more closely reflect the polls than we saw at any point between Tuesday and now.

Quote:
On election night and amongst poker players they are INSANELY inefficient.
Read through the last 40-60 pages of the election thread in the sportsbetting sub-forum. I've seen less sh*t being thrown between 2nl regs in the micro forums than the SB pros managed.

Now looking forward to the 2024 election (or some sort of Brexit 2.0 or Scottish independence referendum). This election definitely served as an ideal warm-up, not so much the preparation before hand but the live election night experience which I was just absolutely unprepared for. I also told some people to fire when Biden was between 3.0-3.5 but couldn't find the 'Enter' key myself.

And on a side note, and just my personal suspicion, but I would not be the least bit surprised to see the GOP nominee very much emulate Trump, but without the rhetoric. Possibly Trump himself stages a comeback, or even Don Jr. I don't see this as the last political hooray for the Trump family.
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Old 11-09-2020, 07:21 AM   #478
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Read most of your thread during my night shift (6:30 am now in Canada). Have watched some of the BitB podcasts before as well, especially enjoyed the fellow Canuck Jericho one. In for the rest of 2020 and hopefully beyond. Glgl.
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Old 11-09-2020, 01:53 PM   #479
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

A+ to see you profiting from elections, that's so smart to do, people are so emotional/biased, that's probably why that market is so inefficient.

Really happy to see Biden win too, but it's still scary to see how close it was and how so many usa people support a clown like trump.
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Old 11-10-2020, 03:03 AM   #480
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

wawaweewa!! Nice nice! How the **** did you even sleep with the bets ongoing? lol
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Old 11-10-2020, 08:33 PM   #481
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Originally Posted by weirdmonkey View Post
Nice writeup. I had most of my whole bankroll on Biden-adjacent bets, so I was sweating it too lol.

It's insane how inefficient political betting markets are. You know something's off when you can get a 10+% return in guaranteed states like Virginia, Colorado, etc.

And I actually think the models/polling were pretty good this year. If you ignore the topline numbers, the crosstabs pretty much predicted how it would play out. E.g., the polls showed Biden weakness with Latinos and strength in the suburbs. That was confirmed early in the night when the results from Miami and suburban Indiana/ Ohio came in. Just looking at Biden gains in the counties surrounding Indianapolis gave me confidence he would hold WI/MI/PA and win the election.

The polls missed big again with rural whites, but I think a lot of that is due to Trump's polarizing style and the difficulty of sampling that group.

At the end of the day models are meant to be representation of uncertainty, and I think they did good a job of that. The models were confident in Biden because his lead was healthy enough to survive a 2016-type polling error, which is what happened.

There's a lot of money to be made in political betting if you view polls as a representation of uncertainty and not an exact prediction of the result.
Yeah I'm gonna review it properly when the count finishes everywhere but doesn't seem like they were too bad, and agree with the bulk of what you are saying. I do think though there are systematic problems with models based on polls a long way out from election day.

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Originally Posted by megalomaniac23 View Post
Is 20knl typo?
Nah I embraced the GG VIP games a bit, even played a few hands of 40k I think! Obviously selling a lot of action for these.

Quote:
Originally Posted by woolly View Post
Same. Oddly enough I managed to also fade a COVID scare that ran nearly concurrent to the election and the ensuing electoral shenanigans.

Agree with nearly all of the points both regarding Trump being an utter POS person and the election market. Also my largest bet ever but not nearly as large as yours.

My biggest bets in order were:
Biden to flip one or more states (1.145)
Pop vote (1.14~)
Dems to maintain control of House (1.13)

Also had Biden election, Dems U 310.5 ECs, some states, and a Senate bet. This last one looks like the sole loser but with the run-offs won't know either way until January.

When the dust settles after all the ballots are counted (and re-counted) I believe the results will much more closely reflect the polls than we saw at any point between Tuesday and now.



Read through the last 40-60 pages of the election thread in the sportsbetting sub-forum. I've seen less sh*t being thrown between 2nl regs in the micro forums than the SB pros managed.

Now looking forward to the 2024 election (or some sort of Brexit 2.0 or Scottish independence referendum). This election definitely served as an ideal warm-up, not so much the preparation before hand but the live election night experience which I was just absolutely unprepared for. I also told some people to fire when Biden was between 3.0-3.5 but couldn't find the 'Enter' key myself.

And on a side note, and just my personal suspicion, but I would not be the least bit surprised to see the GOP nominee very much emulate Trump, but without the rhetoric. Possibly Trump himself stages a comeback, or even Don Jr. I don't see this as the last political hooray for the Trump family.
Good to hear we had the same positions! And yeah I think in the past I basically believed in the EMH for betting lines and figured that I didn't really have reason to have an edge.
But the longer it goes the more I'm convinced that the guys moving the lines just really aren't smart when it's events like this, and guess you don't wanna be the guy walking past the money on the floor because EMH dictates someone should have already picked it up!

I kind of agree too on Trump #2, think it just set a precedent for what is acceptable in politics. If the public don't care about facts/ logic/ truth, then obviously the politician who ignores all three of these is going to have an edge in campaign promises and compelling rhetoric.

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Read most of your thread during my night shift (6:30 am now in Canada). Have watched some of the BitB podcasts before as well, especially enjoyed the fellow Canuck Jericho one. In for the rest of 2020 and hopefully beyond. Glgl.
Thanks man, glad you enjoyed it.

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Originally Posted by Rapidesh123 View Post
A+ to see you profiting from elections, that's so smart to do, people are so emotional/biased, that's probably why that market is so inefficient.

Really happy to see Biden win too, but it's still scary to see how close it was and how so many usa people support a clown like trump.
Thanks man, obviously aware I ran hot to sweep too. Actually thinking about hedging off my big bet on Doug, think Dnegs is playing kind of fine and the market WAY overreacting to standard HUNL variance.

After the live game where dnegs played horribly I was way more confident than now after the two online sessions, but the line moved from 5.0 to 10.0 almost! I guess to be expected but again an example of markets being quite irrational when tons of people are betting on something they have no clue about. I'm still not convinced Daniel is a +EV bet at 10.0, but the movement is the really irrational thing.

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Originally Posted by MDMA Hero View Post
wawaweewa!! Nice nice! How the **** did you even sleep with the bets ongoing? lol
Haha somewhat poorly, but was determined to maintain some vestige of a good sleep pattern through it all.
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Old 11-11-2020, 07:23 PM   #482
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Surprising to see dnegs play decent, maybe we underestimate his drive to win and is focusing a lot on studying/playing better. Wouldn't be surprised if he hired a HS endboss to help him with his game and hit the lab pretty hard, maybe even learned how to use pio.

I remember that I saw a post long time ago when he posted that he got to legend rank in Hearthstone, it's a tough achievement to get even for solid players at the game. At the time I questioned if he paid someone to get it for him, but maybe he is so stubborn and proud that he was willing to put insane hours just for that achievement lol
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Old 11-11-2020, 07:29 PM   #483
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Surprised you think Dnegs is playing somewhat decent. I've watched a bit and he's missing clear value bets all over the place. Like one hand flop K73 went ck/ck, turn 8 and daniel bet 75%. river was a 2 or 4 and DN checked back T8. Saw a few other jaw-dropping horrible ck/backs. And his sizing is really really bad but I think everyone knew that would be the case.

agree that the line movement is insane. though the odds probably should have been more like 9 or 10:1 pre match so it's just the market correcting as more information has been made available to the less informed bettors
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Old 11-11-2020, 07:33 PM   #484
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
Surprised you think Dnegs is playing somewhat decent. I've watched a bit and he's missing clear value bets all over the place. Like one hand flop K73 went ck/ck, turn 8 and daniel bet 75%. river was a 2 or 4 and DN checked back T8. Saw a few other jaw-dropping horrible ck/backs. And his sizing is really really bad but I think everyone knew that would be the case.
+1. I was also surprised to read that take. I donít think he has much of a chance at all. Like under 5% if I had to put a number of it.
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Old 11-11-2020, 10:22 PM   #485
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Okay today I think he actually played quite horribly in the showdown hands to be fair.

I think most of the hands people have highlighted to say he's bad in general though aren't even bad, 97 for EG I feel way worse about my bet knowing he called than if he'd folded th turn. T8 sounds like an error yeah, didn't miss that.

Sizings in poker don't really matter though in my opinion, I know it's the classic thing to say someones sizing is bad but all we really care is transfer of EV from one player to the other and most sizings within a certain range are reasonable. Yeah the 1/5 potting river isn't ideal, the K2 1/5 pot turn is just w/e, it clearly isn't a mistake imo even if it's not the sizing I'd choose.
Some of the biggest winners in the world (Steffan11222), and a lot of the highstakes players use completely different sizing schemes to PIO, it realy doesn't matter, if someone says they'd pay me 10k a year and they can choose two sizings for me I always have to use, one <30, one > 70, I'd probably accept.
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Old 11-11-2020, 10:27 PM   #486
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Okay I take back the last point, 5 and 90 could be a problem . But the argument still stands.
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Old 11-11-2020, 11:38 PM   #487
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
Surprised you think Dnegs is playing somewhat decent. I've watched a bit and he's missing clear value bets all over the place. Like one hand flop K73 went ck/ck, turn 8 and daniel bet 75%. river was a 2 or 4 and DN checked back T8. Saw a few other jaw-dropping horrible ck/backs. And his sizing is really really bad but I think everyone knew that would be the case.

agree that the line movement is insane. though the odds probably should have been more like 9 or 10:1 pre match so it's just the market correcting as more information has been made available to the less informed bettors
I think you are highly underestimating the amount of variance in HU over such a small amount of hands.
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Old 11-12-2020, 01:27 AM   #488
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

I probably should have prefaced my comment with a “I don’t really know wtf I’m talking about wrt HU but...”.
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Old 11-12-2020, 01:35 AM   #489
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Sizings in poker don't really matter though in my opinion,
I understand the point you're making, regardless of our size how we play our range is more important... but DN isn't doing that well either

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I think you are highly underestimating the amount of variance in HU over such a small amount of hands.
I'm not basing anything off of results, just seen several hands where DN only got 1 street of value with top pair, 0-1 street with middle pair, never getting value with a high... he's doing a ton of checking. and obviously he's also checking back a ton of bottom of range 0sdv hands. very passive play overall.

and he's already said he's not randomizing, so it's not like he just pulled the bottom of his rng a bunch and seemed to play more passively because of that
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Old 11-12-2020, 01:56 AM   #490
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Originally Posted by PlasticElephant View Post

- Maybe polls still underestimate trump, will see here when the count finishes, think the overall margin wasn't far out and a lot of the reason for betting was that Biden could survive a Hilary Clinton style miss.
Disagree on polling, they were again extremely flawed. This was highlighted in individual states and Senate races. They created some awesome betting opportunities though.
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Old 11-12-2020, 03:39 AM   #491
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
I understand the point you're making, regardless of our size how we play our range is more important... but DN isn't doing that well either



I'm not basing anything off of results, just seen several hands where DN only got 1 street of value with top pair, 0-1 street with middle pair, never getting value with a high... he's doing a ton of checking. and obviously he's also checking back a ton of bottom of range 0sdv hands. very passive play overall.

and he's already said he's not randomizing, so it's not like he just pulled the bottom of his rng a bunch and seemed to play more passively because of that
No one is arguing that Daniel isn't good, obviously Doug is much better at HU. 10-1 odds is crazy though
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Old 11-12-2020, 10:20 AM   #492
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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No one is arguing that Daniel isn't good, obviously Doug is much better at HU. 10-1 odds is crazy though
I would definitely argue that Daniel isn't good at HU poker. I would bumhunt him at 200nl if I had the chance. I play a decent amount of HU and many of the bad regs I play are significantly better than him (going off of a small sample, but the # of mistakes in that small sample is truly absurd for anyone but a rec)

Not sure 10:1 is crazy. Iirc 10:1 is +ev on Doug if we wins at 20bb/100. I think he's winning more like 30bb/100 but we will see
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Old 11-12-2020, 10:25 AM   #493
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Pretty sure that was a typo by bbissick and he meant ‘no one is arguing that Daniel IS good’, but ya, I agree that I would happily play him HU and I don’t even play the format.
I do take back my comment regarding his chances in the match though and concede that I don’t have much understanding of how variance differs in HU to 6-max or fullring.
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Old 11-12-2020, 12:12 PM   #494
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Pretty sure that was a typo by bbissick and he meant Ďno one is arguing that Daniel IS goodí, but ya, I agree that I would happily play him HU and I donít even play the format.
I do take back my comment regarding his chances in the match though and concede that I donít have much understanding of how variance differs in HU to 6-max or fullring.
lol yeah that makes more sense, need to drink coffee before posting
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Old 11-12-2020, 02:18 PM   #495
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
I would definitely argue that Daniel isn't good at HU poker. I would bumhunt him at 200nl if I had the chance. I play a decent amount of HU and many of the bad regs I play are significantly better than him (going off of a small sample, but the # of mistakes in that small sample is truly absurd for anyone but a rec)

Not sure 10:1 is crazy. Iirc 10:1 is +ev on Doug if we wins at 20bb/100. I think he's winning more like 30bb/100 but we will see
Yeah sorry, meant he is not good at HU. I'm just saying that even with a big edge you can lose a surprisingly amount of times over that sample size.

I've swung 25-30 BI playing HU vs guys I have around a 10bb edge over as well.
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Old 11-12-2020, 03:10 PM   #496
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Yeah sorry, meant he is not good at HU. I'm just saying that even with a big edge you can lose a surprisingly amount of times over that sample size.

I've swung 25-30 BI playing HU vs guys I have around a 10bb edge over as well.
yeah I agree the swings can be huge over decent samples (25k+ hands) even at a 10bb w/r, but 10bb/100 is the wr of a good reg vs a bad reg. A world class reg against a rec is going to crush for 30-50bb/100. So it comes down to how you see DN's game. I don't think he's -50bb/100 level, but -30bb/100? Maybe

Last edited by tgiggity; 11-12-2020 at 03:21 PM.
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Old 11-12-2020, 07:18 PM   #497
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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yeah I agree the swings can be huge over decent samples (25k+ hands) even at a 10bb w/r, but 10bb/100 is the wr of a good reg vs a bad reg. A world class reg against a rec is going to crush for 30-50bb/100. So it comes down to how you see DN's game. I don't think he's -50bb/100 level, but -30bb/100? Maybe
Doug isn't world class anymore, but still pretty good. Daniel is obviously making tons of mistakes but he's not losing at anywhere near that number imo.

I played a few sessions vs both, If I thought Doug was winning at 20bb I'd have put a chunk of my networth on it lol
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Old 11-12-2020, 07:36 PM   #498
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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Doug isn't world class anymore, but still pretty good. Daniel is obviously making tons of mistakes but he's not losing at anywhere near that number imo.

I played a few sessions vs both, If I thought Doug was winning at 20bb I'd have put a chunk of my networth on it lol
For sure, don't doubt that you have a better idea of their skill levels than I do. Especially having played them both hu.

Sorry for the derail and don't want to go further off the rails... but how did you score a hu session vs dn?
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Old 11-12-2020, 08:32 PM   #499
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

no please continue debating how good DN is at hunl. i myself could read another 10 pages of this fascinating back-and-forth
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Old 11-30-2020, 05:17 PM   #500
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

XPOSTING from my bitB internal blog in case anyone is interested

Okay so this month has been a bit of a blur, had the huge Biden sweat and didn't play for the first week basically because of this Then BTC was popping, Vienna back in lockdown, maybe picked up some unhealthy habits in terms of eating and sleeping.

The 15 exercise challenge this month was really quite +EV, not sure I'd have forced myself to the park as much without it. Overall just quite done with the lockdowns at this point, and looking forward to things slowly returning to normal with the vaccine. Have optimistically booked some skiing in January and hoping to take some time off then.

I think this year has been a bit of a COVID bubble and definitely gonna assess end of year results with that boost at front of mind. Overall must have run insanely hot this year I think with buying action, BTC, biden, Doug (?), but gotta take the run good when it comes.
That said, I think this month I really realised how much I have improved too over the last two years. I'd assess my poker career something like this:

Origins:
3 years of thinking I was a theory god because I knew mathematics and studied Economics, pre PIOsolver, just probably bluffing 5x too much in some spots, 5x too little in others, any time I repped nothing bluffing because noone else bluffed there. Complete rocket science all over the place based on flawed fundamentals, thought i was studying but in reality just clicking btns. Was completely woeful and barely won any money.

Awakening:
Had a call with one of the guys that made the first seating scripts. He told me he sat with Ike and ForHayley and would just still print at the the table because he always had the jesus seat on fish. I started to look at other regs who were crushing and realised I genuinely couldn't explain why, so did the next best thing and just copied them.

Basically gave up studying for 2 years, focussed on game selection, copied people who crushed, and started to really win myself at high w/rs. I guess I became a practitioner basically, someone who does stuff that WORKS, doesn't understand why really but that doesn't matter anyway.

Enlightenment:
This started to brew when I came back to bitB from my real job. But really I think moving in with Markus the first time was the pivotal point. Markus basically learnt everything from first principles under Internet, who was basically doing what I was originally trying to do Actually think he was one of the sickest guys, it's hard to overstate how hard it was to come up with good strategies using conventional mathematics pre PIO, and copying was wayyyyy easier. Think finally all the stuff from origins started to blend with awakening, I started to understand WHY stuff worked, why guys playing miles away from equillbrium were winning anyway.

This kind of gave me the freedom to be a bit more creative myself now that I had the mental tools to really assess what I was doing, and also the positive side effect of reducing ego when you realise there is normally a reason why 'badregs' have 6bb/100 graphs!

Now days more and more spots are really clicking in my head. I finally understand why low SPRs play like they do well enough to explain it to a math proffesor, 7 years after I started trying

What does this mean? Not much really, just increases confidence in playing higher games, increases how happy I am to assess my own edge and other peoples, decreases stress around decisions. Fortunately poker is complex enough that there is still and always will be tons of improvement to be had, just thought I'd share this with you guys because it's funny how I've gone full circle. Maybe you've seen this in coaching sessions too if you've been here long enough (maybe only @guerre and @Deividas).

First sessions were maybe on the backend of nonsense theory shmoogly, then mid portion was 'why do we do this? Because PIO/ unamed curhser does' just appealing to authority Whereas now days I try to always start with the fundamentals and theory of spots.

Anyway I'm still playing 500nl a lot and probably will continue to do so, still enjoy playing and the memory of real world salaries is clear enough in my mind that I think it'll be a long time till I can turn my nose up at 500 +rb.

Just gonna try and keep taking good shots with higher pieces at 5k+ and see what happens.

Not sure when I last posted a graph here, but last couple of months, maybe decreased average stake a bit but made some good new friends at 500nl on a new site and learnt a bit of HU at same time:





I've also played about 10-20k hands of 5k-20k on untracked sites which has gone reasonably well, maybe +30k after rb? will add up at end of the year. Selling a lot of action above 2k but feeling okay in those games. Strange to sometimes lose 50k though when the bulk of my volume is still 500nl

Outside of playing and studying, I've been doing work with bitB as normal, some students completely popping off which is so good to see when you're working closely with these guys every day, had a couple of record months this month again and this year I think a lot of students will make more than I made myself last year.

All the coaches playing the same style and teaching it to the students I think helps me a lot in run bad stretches too, just means there is always a huge sample of the process being applied every month to assess, and even if makeboifin/foursixfour are doing it better it's all the same ideas.

Also doing a once monthly pay to attend seminar for the new C and C coaching, always focussing on tournament theory really and mostly lower stack spots. Really enjoyed the first session and there's already a great community there, so would recommend checking it out.
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