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Poker Goals & Challenges Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

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Old 07-01-2020, 07:50 PM   #451
max85
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

great results george well done
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Old 07-01-2020, 07:54 PM   #452
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Insane stuff, congrats
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Old 07-01-2020, 08:32 PM   #453
TheTyman9
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

sick results nicely done!
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Old 07-01-2020, 08:56 PM   #454
Rakkazzar
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Results are sick but the important questions is, did you try the Barefoot Shoes?!
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Old 07-01-2020, 09:21 PM   #455
Mayox
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

pogU
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Old 07-02-2020, 02:33 AM   #456
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Very nice graph! Is this mostly stars?
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Old 07-02-2020, 06:15 AM   #457
BenaBadBeat
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

extremely sick results as usual, killing it this year! keep it up lad
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Old 07-02-2020, 07:59 AM   #458
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

great results, congratz!
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Old 07-02-2020, 09:27 AM   #459
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Thanks guys, I'd say 60%-70% ish of my volume is stars these days @Wy

I haven't tried the barefoot shoes yet, been running tons actually in my old shoes though (80kmish last month, couple of 10ks), and needing a new pair soon so maybe I'll buy some for short distances.
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Old 07-02-2020, 09:41 AM   #460
Rakkazzar
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PlasticElephant View Post
Thanks guys, I'd say 60%-70% ish of my volume is stars these days @Wy

I haven't tried the barefoot shoes yet, been running tons actually in my old shoes though (80kmish last month, couple of 10ks), and needing a new pair soon so maybe I'll buy some for short distances.
Yeah just carefully try it out, if you feel like it, i switched 100% to barefoot shoes in the meantime and they fixed my flat feet and anterior pelvic tilt on their own(Those issues destroyed my knee and i didnt get it and had surgery).

To be a bit annoying, for whatever reason you needed surgery you need to find the underlying cause or it might repeat itself despite surgery (happend to me at least) and the body is a complex system, lot of sims to run if you wanna do it right.

I will revert to just admiring the results from now on
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Old 07-02-2020, 11:01 PM   #461
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

**** that is pure! Zeeeero downswing lfg!!! Ya absolutely love to see it <3
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Old 07-03-2020, 07:06 AM   #462
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

crushing mate, good to see you doing well
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Old 07-06-2020, 05:37 AM   #463
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Insane results!! big grats!
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Old 07-06-2020, 06:26 AM   #464
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

You seemed to have gone very quickly from earth to space.
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Old 07-24-2020, 12:33 PM   #465
Don Melchor
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PlasticElephant View Post
Does anyone have W$SD when bet river notecaddy stat for HEM2? Will pay a small amount for it, PM
sup G, did youever get this one!? Id pay a small amount too
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Old 07-24-2020, 04:00 PM   #466
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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You seemed to have gone very quickly from earth to space.
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Old 08-02-2020, 07:06 PM   #467
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Yo guys, traditional monthly update




Missing about 9k hands, $6k winnings from untracked so actually volume not the worst in the end, mid month went on the worst life tilt I've been on in a while I think due to a few factors best not to disclose on PGC.

Honestly not super happy with the month, but not feeling as bad as I was at the midpoint either never great to win at -6evbb but was due some runbad this year. I think going forward I just have to be positive, hope that games pick up again and keep exploring other options and sites at the same time too.

On the positive side I managed to do 35hrs of activity last month according to Strava, Arsenal won the FA Cup, and looking forward to getting back in the gym and climbing next month too, got a nice running bet brewing for the rest of the year. Launched my campaign to become worlds best spikeball player and probably played twice a week through whole of July, was introduced to the game by the gay UK crew but think at this point I suspect I may have far surpassed their standards as they age and rot in various spikeball free locations, gonna honestly be quite an unpleasant surprise for Bena and SMB when they face the slap serve special whenever we next meet.

Managed to sneak a quick trip to the lake district in and climb the two highest mountains in England (a more impressive feat on paper than in practice given neither tops 1000m!);





Gonna be quite busy in August with some family stuff and then trip to Scotland at the end, so think it's better to accept now that it's gonna be tough to get the 40k hands or w/e and just focus on improving as much as possible, playing in as good games as possible, to make sure my technical game bankroll and mental game are in a good position ready for when the games pick up again in the Winter.

Ad Meloria
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Old 08-03-2020, 02:54 AM   #468
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

practice as much as you like, me and bena will slap you and any of your crispy mates (aka d7) at any time, in any place.

the only reason i wasn't called "spike" at birth is because my mum wouldn't allow - true story - what chance have you got?
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Old 08-03-2020, 05:35 AM   #469
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

came here to give congrats on pics and results. leaving prepared to slap you back to where you came from in the spikeball streets. lfg
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:03 PM   #470
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

hello what the fk is spike ball thanks
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:31 PM   #471
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmbSmbSmb View Post
the only reason i wasn't called "spike" at birth is because my mum wouldn't allow
lmao ban
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Old 08-04-2020, 01:22 AM   #472
meale
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

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hello what the fk is spike ball thanks
+1
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Old 09-02-2020, 02:04 AM   #473
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

very inspiring thread just read from the start for someone who is also looking to quit the job and play poker full time.Hope you will update the log in coming months too
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Old 11-08-2020, 09:14 AM   #474
PlasticElephant
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Yo guys, not gonna post results till end of year, been playing a nice mix of 500nl-20knl over the last few months with the predicatble swings but mostly got through it unscathed

Thought I'd cross post this from my bitB blog since it's been an interesting few days:

So last week or so for me has basically been dominated by the election.

a) I really really wanted Biden to win on a personal level. Being in Canada in 2016 and seeing Trump win was one of the biggest wtf moments of my life.
I don't know where I'd place myself on the political spectrum, maybe slightly to the right of centre by UK standards, I guess clear democrat by US standards. But I don't think the political spectrum was really relevant at all to how I viewed Trump. The complete disregard for facts and truth in his arguments and actions, and the number of people willing to accept it because they liked the sound of populist noises he was making definitely made me realise that the majority of the electorate is still not thinking on a logical level ; DRAIN THE SWAMP, BUILD THE WALL, REPEAL AND REPLACE, STOP THE COUNT, all of this complete nonsense, basically words with no plan or action after them. And also self awareness, #1 asset imo, is obviously completely missing from his reportoire. So emotionally already very invested.

b) Had BY FAR the biggest bet on my life on various combinations of Biden to win/ Democrats to win popular vote. Not going to go into the thesis too much but;

- Original small amount based on 538 overperformance vs bookies historically including 2016, reasonable indications dumb money was on trump (90% of bets for trump, DraftKings map, trump longer odds, high stickiness, 'history can repeat itself lol').
- People conflate 'Trump has a chance of winning' with 'Trump has a chance of winning the popular vote' and push out the odds on completely impossible events, even Biden to win California you could get 1.05
- Bookies aren't trying to take a side on such events, just moving the line so they make profit on either outcome. If the enough dumb money pours in on Trumps side, then Bidens odds become too short compared to reality.

Then I topped up a lot on basis of:

- inside information about one of the top guys placing many many M on it

Then came election night itself. Got a big group going with @PATRICK, European (untaggable), and the other coaches here who had all jumped on the bandwagon. Trump won Florida, the first swing state, and the odds just went completely and utterly haywire. By the models we follow without Florida Biden was still 70% ish, but the order the vote was counted in the MidWest swing states made it appear Trump had a heavy lead there too. Now before the election I'd read enough to know there would be a blue shift as the night went on in the midwest and mail ins were counted (PA, MI etc) but wasn't really prepared enough and didn't understand the magnitude. I guess I can say I was probably panicking the least and telling people not to sweat the live odds, but I didn't have the conviction to fire more at longer odds, eventually put myself to bed telling Markus I had to before I bet too much at 3.0 I was also quite overexposed before and probably didn't have enough liquidity left, had ~40k on prior to election night.

Anyway, once I woke up again some form of normality had resumed and Biden was odds on. I actually bet a lot more over the last few days actually when as far as I could tell Trump was converging to zero % with the way the votes were trending, and Biden had 3 paths to victory all wiht 90% + equity (AZ+NV, NV+GA, PA). Maybe ended up with just over redactedk of my own money on.

Anyway I definitely learnt a lot and have some takeaways for next time:

- Politics markets are inefficient. On election night and amongst poker players they are INSANELY inefficient. It's super worth being well researched enough to trade these in future.
- Leave capital free to swing trade election night!
- Predictive models are very bad a long way out, overestimating certainty, not having enough of a drag back to the mean. EG if you say something has 90% chance with 100% uncertainty, you should grade it at 50% chance.
Models seem to grade uncertainty at almost 0% then just wildly change their predictions through the cycle, meaning they are very good to use a day before, very bad to use a month before.

- Maybe polls still underestimate trump, will see here when the count finishes, think the overall margin wasn't far out and a lot of the reason for betting was that Biden could survive a Hilary Clinton style miss.

- Set your sleep at night number and don't bet more than that!

In the end I think it's actually going to be a fairly convincing win for Biden, a few States to spare, just the order of events effected the narrative too much.

Next big bet is on Doug to win, probably got average odds 1.2 and redactedk on. This is a bit different since we have so much inside information, close friends with top 2 HU players in the world, obviously a quasi poker expert myself, have seen Dnegs play with hole cards. People way underestimate HU w/rs because they look at them by 6max standards even I can win at 10bb/100 vs other regs often. By Kelly should obviously go way bigger but Dnegs actually played quite well on the last online match imo and seems to be taking a reasonable approach, all the value is in him not handling HU swings well mentally rather than having some -20bb+ lossrate. Market moved him 6.0 to 8.0 on the basis of that and think if it goes to 12+ with him still playing well and not down too much I'll just hedge out.

Anyway upshot of all this is that now we are in lockdown, my sleep pattern is ****ed, I've played 6k hands this month, and claimed 1 piece of exercise, so time to get back on the grind Will be trying to put volume in this week and streaming some study and play sessions again.

Last edited by PlasticElephant; 11-08-2020 at 09:25 AM.
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Old 11-08-2020, 11:07 PM   #475
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Re: Making it Count; 500nl+ and Life in the 2020s.

Nice writeup. I had most of my whole bankroll on Biden-adjacent bets, so I was sweating it too lol.

It's insane how inefficient political betting markets are. You know something's off when you can get a 10+% return in guaranteed states like Virginia, Colorado, etc.

And I actually think the models/polling were pretty good this year. If you ignore the topline numbers, the crosstabs pretty much predicted how it would play out. E.g., the polls showed Biden weakness with Latinos and strength in the suburbs. That was confirmed early in the night when the results from Miami and suburban Indiana/ Ohio came in. Just looking at Biden gains in the counties surrounding Indianapolis gave me confidence he would hold WI/MI/PA and win the election.

The polls missed big again with rural whites, but I think a lot of that is due to Trump's polarizing style and the difficulty of sampling that group.

At the end of the day models are meant to be representation of uncertainty, and I think they did good a job of that. The models were confident in Biden because his lead was healthy enough to survive a 2016-type polling error, which is what happened.

There's a lot of money to be made in political betting if you view polls as a representation of uncertainty and not an exact prediction of the result.
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