you dont really have blockers to anything. If you do b/x/b a overpair for whatever reason, you dont jam river unless villain block bets. At this SPR you just want to get all the money in with KJ+, so b/b/jam prints. What hand do you think villains b/fs otr?
Also +1 coldsmile, however think 20% cb is better than 1/3
You're trying to sell 8 9, right? If I had raised 89 suited from middle position and I flopped a gutter with backdoor flush draw then I would be taking the free card trying to improve... you can't cbet every hand and have it believable... sometimes have to check draws and sometimes have to check top pair to balance your ranges. It's BELIEVABLE that 89 would check that flop. If you bet the flop you're taking away from anyone thinking you have 8 9... so you can't bluff it later.
Then when you actually HIT the miracle card you check the turn? Why would 8 9 check the turn when there is a backdoor flush draw out there? The villian could easily have something like QJ/KJ of diamonds. Nobody should ever be checking that turn with the nuts... you have bet SOMETHING even if it was small.
Why would the nuts check turn then shove river? I see a lot of those plays as bluffs far more often than actual hands. Raise it to 9k accomplishes the exact same thing - if you're bluffing you're risking 4k less but it's also super strong and should be able to get weaker pairs off the pot.
Why raise at all? You've given up after cbetting ... he could easily be putting you on a random unpaired suited ace or a low pair and be value betting with a pair of 7s or just be bluffing with air because you checked the turn. You certainly could be ahead just by calling. There's a small argument for just calling river given pot size... he only has to be bluffing 20% or so of the time and you could be ahead another 10-15% of the time he's trying to value bet 7s.
By the way, good luck on the challenge. It's certainly doable ... I just crossed the +$20k mark since January 1st and I'm a part-timer that plays almost exclusively <$50 buy-ins online and occasional $200-$300 buy ins live. I've ran extremely well, though.
I like your idea of moving to fewer tables ... I play only six at a time so I can follow the action better.
you dont really have blockers to anything. If you do b/x/b a overpair for whatever reason, you dont jam river unless villain block bets. At this SPR you just want to get all the money in with KJ+, so b/b/jam prints. What hand do you think villains b/fs otr?
Also +1 coldsmile, however think 20% cb is better than 1/3
I b/b/j an overpair here. The turn isn't correct for a b/x/b line. What I meant was V can think I have overpairs since they can jam river for value.
Not trying to sell it, blocking it from his calling range, 89 is one of the main hands that's gunna call this shove.
He has wayyy more combos of 89 than me so I wouldn't rep that.
Oh, that's what you meant. I thought you meant you were repping it... blocking him from having it, I see.
But you are repping it, right? So you have to think about it that way as well. Jamming all in there says you got the nuts or a set. As played I don't think it's likely you have either. Set would not check the turn given a diamond or 8/9 would shut the action down.
By the way, good luck on the challenge. It's certainly doable ... I just crossed the +$20k mark since January 1st and I'm a part-timer that plays almost exclusively <$50 buy-ins online and occasional $200-$300 buy ins live. I've ran extremely well, though.
I like your idea of moving to fewer tables ... I play only six at a time so I can follow the action better.
More than doable with a full-time work attitude to it. I'm basically locking myself indoors for the next few years to try and rake in what's left of the online poker money. I'm pretty new to the game considering I'd only played ~150k hands before going pro and quitting work to play full time last June.
But you are repping it, right? So you have to think about it that way as well. Jamming all in there says you got the nuts or a set. As played I don't think it's likely you have either. Set would not check the turn given a diamond or 8/9 would shut the action down.
He's welcome to add it into his perceived range of me but it's not a hand I'd have in this spot. Due to the stack depth we're happy getting overpairs in on this river so we can have that too. As you mentioned we have sets and also TJ that checks turn for whatever reason
As big mick pointed out, I don't think it makes a lot of sense for valuehands to go for a bet/check/bet line. You would not even be able to get it in often now if he checks river.
I really recognise your username, have we done business with action in the past?
Not sure - I've only got back into playing poker again recently - I was playing full time 3-4 years ago for about a year - I was involved a little bit in backing people.
I was also a hand analyzer at Poker School Online so maybe you saw me there?
The AK hand - I agree with the comments about the flop sizing. Cbet sizes in tourneys tend to be really small, sometimes too small. But on a board so dry as this, your Cbet should be small to induce a call with a wider range of hands - you're basically Cbetting for thin value at this point. Whether you should Cbet at all is another question altogether.
The 88 hand - I've got no idea what you're trying to rep on the river, pocket 2s or Ts possibly? I know you block his nutty hands but even so, I'd be calling this line off pretty wide as it makes no sense other than possibly 22.
Not sure - I've only got back into playing poker again recently - I was playing full time 3-4 years ago for about a year - I was involved a little bit in backing people.
I was also a hand analyzer at Poker School Online so maybe you saw me there?
i think blocking 89 as part of his calling range doesnt "really" matter in a spot when he can easily have worse bet/calling hands, because you have like zero value hands that make sense.
i think even calling is better ev that shoving , but not 100% sure. depends on how thinly villain valuebets and/or if he turns weakest showdown hands into bluff with limited amount of air in his range.
speaking of blockers, blocking 86, 85 narrows his folding range even more, meanwhile those are hands you beat.
i think even calling is better ev that shoving , but not 100% sure. depends on how thinly villain valuebets.
This was my issue with the hand. I feel like when I call I'm just paying off his Tx and Jx way too often. He shouldn't have too many total air bluffs off this stack size getting deep in the B109. I wasn't willing to fold and I was unwilling to pay off his thin value bet