I guess I missed it, but what is the ultimate goal? If it's just a hobby, that's fine, but if you are serious about moving up, just start at the highest stakes you can afford. Don't waste your time at the micros.

If I started at the highest stakes I can afford then I'd get absolutely annihilated. I have a friend who is a high-stakes mtt reg and every time I talk hand histories with him I'm reminded of how poor my understanding of the game currently is (just by seeing his analysis). I have a ton of improving to do before I can think about playing anything other than micro-stakes.

As for goals: at a minimum I want to consistently win so as not to have to deposit again. If I can go one better and make enough money to pay some basic bills without having to go near my bank account then great, which would involve climbing stakes and being at a point where I'm consistently profiting big bucks. Third, and this one is possibly unrealistic considering I won't be putting my whole being into poker, but I desire to get to the level of theory understanding and implementation of Llinus. But don't we all.

I want to be able to heuristically understand the game in a complete fashion, as Llinus clearly does, and therefore be able to think through each hand with a similarly genius thought process.

Thanks, same to you guys

I would tweak Goal #1. Don't look at depositing, look at your entire bankroll that you have set aside. I know it sucks to redeposit, but it doesn't make a ton of sense to keep your entire roll on 1 site anyways. If you're reasonable intelligent (which you are, obv), then playing with a 100bi BRM strategy will carry you through the micros without much effort.

At the micros, you end up just paying a lot of rake vs players who honestly aren't much worse than players at small stakes.

Where do you consider the distinction to be between micro and small stakes?

Or more relevantly, where does the rake start to really drop off? Being predominantly an mtt player, my understanding of cash game rake is limited, though I can probably solve this very quickly with a google search

By the way, I totally withdraw my comment about the standard at NL25 being 'pretty good'. It was pretty good relative to my terrible play, but I've approached it with a fresh mind today and it feels like printing. Of course I'm well aware of variance and I can tell the difference between variance determining a change in results and standard of play determining a change in results. I guess that one of the key factors in making this work is going to be finding consistency, which I think is largely a mental endeavour. Specifically, it seems necessary that the game is approached totally passively, rather than trying to force things to go ones own way (not to be confused with a passive strategy, but mentally passive).

Depends on where you play. The first significant discount on rake is usually when you move from 50nl to 100nl. Also, not much of a skill jump there. You get a better rake discount when moving from 100nl to 200nl, but I have noticed a distinct difference between 100nl and 200nl. 200nl games have been much tougher.

You can use this to figure out where the sweetspot is for your games:

https://www.primedope.com/online-pok...ke-calculator/

You are looking for the lowest cap relative to your stake. So using Stars as an example:

10NL: Net rake is 4.14%
25NL: Net Rake is 3.99%
50NL: Net Rake is 3.75%
100NL: Net Rake is 3.22%
200NL: Net Rake is 2.52%


10NL is the nut worst limit on Stars.


Lower stakes players are ridiculously unbalanced. There are a ton of spots they overbluff and a ton of spots they underbluff. Look for spots where the general population tends to be betting a lot, and when you see someone check in that spot, start attacking it.

Thanks for the in depth reply. It seems like I change my mind about these things pretty quickly so I'm going to refrain from making any definite statements about what I'm going to do, but what I will say is that I'm only a deposit away from being rolled for any if these stakes (though I'm very likely to stick with Xeno's 25/30bi suggestion) and I may find myself climbing relatively quickly with the aid if depositing, if it's fairly evident that I'm beating the field.

On the note of BRM, I noticed that sauce used this BRM, starting at 25NL. Probably in a much softer time period, but there are people still crushing at all stakes. This tells me that it doesn't matter how good the field gets relative to what it used to be - it matters how good YOU are relative to the current field.

Some notes on adjustments from equilibrium at 25NL, assuming the pool is fairly big:

3bet a ton - we already 3bet a huge amount compared to the general population if we're playing at equilibrium, but our 3bets seem to be printing to the extent that we can pure 3bet a ton of combos that would otherwise be mixing

Over-trap with AA - same reason as above

Overfold to 3bets vs randoms - most opponents are simply wayy under-3betting so naturally we want to find more folds. Identify the regs that actually have 3bet bluffs and revert back to near equilibrium calling/4bet ranges

Raise atc when we're folded to in the sb - most opponent BB defence ranges seem absurdly tight and we're printing money in this spot

Overcall/overbluff vs river probes when failing to cbet turn - postflop is much more difficult to accurately generalise, but opponents seem to take this line for air and over-probe


This is only after a very small sample and I actually haven't done any exploitative study yet, but I'm up quite a few buy-ins and these are a few of the generalisations that have been serving me well so far. I don't mind sharing strat at this point since my client usernames are different to my 2+2 username and I'm probably trash right now anyway, so this is all subject to change very quickly

Those are all great observations, especially overcalling vs river probe.

keep in mind that regs, even at lower stakes will eventually adjust to you, at least a few of them so extreme adjustments may backfire, just pay attention and go back closer to an equilibrium strategy if thats the case, or if you notice an attempt at exploiting you that is way out of line you can exploit back

Absolutely - any exploitative heuristic I list is impermanent and readjustment is essential. One reg has begun 4betting me much more and it's become a fun little levelling game which I seem to be getting the best of atm.

It's a little bit like an arcade game for me atm. I'm detached from the money and it's more like watching my high score go up, and when it gets to a certain point I'll move on to the next level

New note:

BB Vs SB steal - regs will often follow up a steal attempt with a cbet, check turn and give-up to half-pot+ bet sizing. Implications being that we can weight a turn bet in this spot more towards air and save more of our value for a bet/raise otr

Quick note:

Check-raising from the BB - we want to xr depolarised since we're raising into a depolarised c-betting range. If we limit ourselves to xr'ing polarised then we fail to leverage the enormous fold equity we have vs a population that overfolds this spot (with the exception of boards that heavily favour the IP range and we need to balance frequencies a little more vs regs)

I wasn't intending this to be a strategy blog and I actually don't see much point in sharing strategy, but it's actually all I have to share at this point. I might limit the content to something like 'developed an interesting flop xr heuristic' or whatever.

I'm hoping to be at NL50 in a few of weeks, but we'll see how things go of course. I have another week to go on my work project since there's still a ton of work to do to tie things up and I'm actually gonna have to go back in October to complete snagging when the client is away for filming. So volume will ramp up in about 8 days time

I would approach this spot in a different way. We have to call a preflop raise and a cbet vs a villain with an uncapped range to get to this spot where we are hoping they XF vs our bluffs. Doesn't sound that great, right?

We shouldn't really have a ton of air when we call pre and call a flop bet. You still want to be betting a lot of your value on the turn, because you will only have 1 street to try to get the money in if you check back the flop and there's no guarantee villain will bet the flop when they are checking a gutted turn range. It always starts with value. If you want to add more bluffs, that's good, but it all starts with getting paid with your good hands and building a pot.

Here's how I would approach it: Since villain is cbetting quite often on the flop, it means their flop checking range is extremely gutted, so you can take advantage of that spot way more often and just go crazy with the bluffs and it is relatively cheap.

Thanks for the feedback. Villian has an uncapped range in this spot, but also an extremely wide range with a majority air if he's anywhere near balanced. We should be getting to this spot with a ton of air imo unless we're appropriately x/r'ing otf, which I haven't been doing anywhere near as often as I probably should. Hence I get to this spot after calling a ton of my backdoors, gutters and weak pairs. Tbf, a x/r otf is clearly optimal since it likely achieves the same result as a turn bet vs check and doesn't give villian the chance to improve.

This is true too, but it also means that their turn checking range is extremely gutted and so hence my original statement. I'm going to experiment with more x/r'ing otf and see how that works out.


A side note: a lot of regs seem to have adjusted somewhat to some of my notes, so this really is all in flux and it seems there's absolutely no definite exploitative heuristic - perhaps only against specific opponents who are stuck in a groove.

A mental game note: regardless of strategy development, it seems crucial that the game is approached correctly in terms of intention/mindset. The last couple of sessions I've expected to sit down, click buttons and print, and I've made a ton of bad decisions and it's gone the other way, which causes feelings of frustration and more bad decisions. What is essential, it seems to me, is that we sit down totally disregarding money altogether and instead there is just the desire to outplay and outsmart ones opponents, as with any skill-based game.

Busted the $150 WSOP freeze-out curtesy of some run-bad and on about a 4bi downswing at 25nl. GG for tonight

I'm actually resisting the idea that this (poker endeavour) has all been somewhat of a waste of time, at least in itself. I'd say that off the table it has been +ev in several ways, but recently it just feel like a degen activity. I could be outside, I could be playing with and educating my children, I could be putting extra time into fitness and whatever else. I'm not sure that poker is actually going anywhere in terms of financial success and I'm not sure what to do about it. This has been on my mind for a while, but I've made a significant investment in the game with both time and money, and it's very difficult to admit that it might not be going anywhere. It might be something to put on the back burner to go to as and when I want to rather than putting any sort of hope or commitment into it

Or, equilibrium doesn't have you bluffing a lot. Maybe more individual hand analysis would work. When I became enamored with 25nl, the tendency to overbluff was in my arsenal, and became a detriment. An RNG would suffice for cbetting purposes, which is a balanced approach. I suggest the Peter Clarke videos for Pokerstars on twitch. I am also subscribed to Force24, which plays on my site, and someone is not as good as they think they are (ie, opening wide as a defense is not always good). Consider also a flatting range for raise, made much today just by flatting in position (they had premium hand, I got the two pair )

It's a hobby. Some people spend a ton of money on golf and just use it as an excuse to get drunk on the weekends. Fishing, stamp collecting, etc, all have similar pitfalls.

lol just a few days in and you're already giving up.

Epic.

If I understood correctly you started off trying to dedicate 8h a day to poker. If you've been doing that now and can't find time to have a balanced life, just cut down on the poker hours? Poker will never be easy on the mind, especially if you rely solely on poker.

You already got some nice support and good advice in this thread. Could be massive +EV for you.

But for now why not just cut down on the hours? Don't think you created this PGC for no reason. If you ran bad over the past couple weeks, it's not the end of the world.

GL and respect whatever you do.

Thanks for all of the positive replies. My last post actually contradicted a ton of what I had said in previous posts and I think was largely influenced by my (yet again) failed shot. I've been running badly in the big BI mtt's for a long time now and they are pretty much what I don't see going anywhere, not the BR grind. I think I'm going to just cut-out all poker play outside of my dedicated bankroll. Sure I can add to the bankroll, but I can still only play within my BRM. I think this will help me an absolute ton mentally because MTT's are such high variance that shots may never pay off. I have a friend who is a high-stakes mtt pro and if you saw his sharkscope you'd see a ton of busts with some min-cashes, but then every so often there'll be a 50k score or whatever. But it takes volume.

I haven't actually started grinding properly yet, just trying to get a feel for what people are doing, get my PFR's down and test my game a little bit. My last day of work will be Friday, possibly until October but if a really good project comes up then I'll have to take it. I'm still up a few BI's up despite the minor recent downswing.

I've actually just joined an affiliate which gives me 50% rakeback so that's gonna make the grind and climbing stakes a lot more appealing, providing I can at least break even. I know that a lot of players actually make a living from rb alone. So yeah, hopefully this affiliate deal works out. I'm having an issue with the software though and am having to play on the app using bluestacks which is frustrating - I've tried re-downloading the software but can't get it to run for some reason.


Anyway, thanks again for the positive words and I apologise for the negative vibes in my previous post. All comments so far have been helpful and appreciated.

New goal: start reading more PGC's and try to be a positive influence in the worthy threads, as you guys have been in mine (partly inspired by Benabadbeat)