Title pretty much sums it up. This will be super tldr/ranty. cliffs at bottom.

History:

Been "pro" for just over a year. Playing almost exclusively live low/mid-stakes for ~30hours/wk. I started dabbling with FT online when I was 16-20 playing occasionally in all types of NLH games. I was essentially breakeven, probably won a couple grand after bonus whoring. When I was 21 I started playing live and logged about 300 hours at 1/2, averaged $27/hr and decided when I graduated uni that I would give poker a shot as my profession.

When I started my poker career I decided to travel Europe playing poker. I had a thread titled "Pay for a euro-trip playing poker" in PG&C where I traveled Europe for 6months grinding live to pay for the trip. I ended up achieving my goal. A couple months later I followed up with a different challenge. This time it was "live NHL cash pro to crush PLO8 micros" where I challenged myself to beat the PLO8 micros in a semi-ambitious plan. This also ended up being successful.

Today I realize that blogging/logging my sessions in a public setting helps me play better poker, so I've decided to start yet another thread with a new challenge-- This one has a small kicker though... If I fail, I quit my job.

Whats going down:

I've decided that being a poker pro may not be the best option based on my results and background, so I'm giving it a final shot ITT as my primary profession. In a nutshell; If I can't win over $30/hr over 1000 hours playing live poker, I change my profession.

I think this challenge will take ~8 months. I think I can average ~30hrs/week so 1000 hours is ~8 months. I also plan on 4-8 tabling 10-25NL online for 5-10hours/week. I think this will help my live game improve.

I am living in the Philippines now. I will be traveling to Ottawa, Korea, Cambodia, Macau (and perhaps elsewhere) over the next 8 months.

Currently my poker BR is $4500CDN. I plan on playing ~$1.25/2.5 until I have a bankroll of $7000 then I will begin playing ~$2.5/5.00. I may take shots at $2/5 with a Br <$5000. I will be fairly aggressive with my bankroll and may even pull out money from investments if I think its worth it (BRM FTW). I will be in the Philippines for ~5/8 months ($1/2 often, $2/5 most nights, $2/5/10 weekends), Ottawa ($1/2 24/7, $2/5 nightly, $5/10 occasional weekend) for ~1/8 months, and other Asian countries (Mostly $1/2-$2/5) for ~2/8months. Most of my live action will be in Manila ($1/2-$2/5/10) and Cebu (Only $1/2).

I think $30/hr is an ambitious target considering I'll be playing $1/2 for ~50% of my hours. This challenge may get really interesting towards the end as I will possibly be forced to take $2/5/10 shots to get to $30/hr.

Cliffs:

PG&C whore doing another challenge
Win $30/hr+ over 1000 hours or I quit the pokerz.
Will be aggressive with BRM.
Playing in multiple B&M venues in multiple countries.
Also play online and PLO8 on occasion.

gogogogo

a 100/200/500p game that runs regularly in Manila? a 50/100 game that runs regularly in Cebu??

I am aware of 25/50 running regularly in Cebu, and 50/100 running regularly in Manila, but your claiming higher?

Home games?

Good luck sir! Hope you accomplish this.

Nope, It's not regularly. When I'm in Cebu I'll fly to Manila every 2 weeks Mon-Thur (its like $30), and get some 50/100-100/200. Fri/Sat has 50/100 and occasionally 50/100/200 in Cebu.

On a standard monthly schedule in the Philippines that's 8 days of 50/100-100/200 and 8 days of 50/100 and occasional 50/100/200.

Game availability is not a problem in macau/korea/cambodia from what I've heard.

If you know of any home games in Manila/Cebu that are safe, do tell. Looking to play PLO8 live is possible.


Thx! me too





Today I'll be stating my first session of this challenge, its 50/100pesos. Works out to like $1.2/$2.4. I'm gonna start using currency conversion on these sessions to track.

My last few sessions I have been making -EV plays and semi-bluffing in questionable spots. I think these plays are a function of frustration and impatience.

Tonight I'll be making an effort to clearly think through clearly all my decisions. I'm going to take my time when I make an action.

Thought process in any pot-
When checked to/first to act:

What is my opponents range?
Should I bet? Am I betting for value, or as a bluff? What is the optimal bet size given my opponents range, and my objective? If I bet now, what cards am I looking to continue with on the turn/river, what cards to I give up/blocker bet?

When facing a bet:

What is my opponents range?
Should I call, raise or fold?

If I call, whats my plan on the next street?

If I raise, is it for value, or a bluff? If its for value, what x% will I get called by this villain in this spot? If its as a bluff, what x% will I get this villain to fold in this spot?

Seems pretty simple, but I'm running bad and playing bad and I need to revamp my game. My basic thought process seems like the best place to start.

Also, going to grind some NL10 for a few hundred hands. Maybe I'll find a leak.

I live near 2 poker rooms, one of which hosts VIP PLO games upon request. There are lots of players there willing to play PLO, and the fun part is they don't know what they're doing. Hit me up if you're going to grind in the Pasig area. I'll introduce you to the regulars so you'll be in the loop for juicy games.

Wow, thanks! I will. I'm going to grind holdem live for a bit. I would like to read a book on get 10-20k hands in micro PLO before I would feel comfortable playing. Def will PM you in the future though.



Played my first session last night at $1.20/$2.40. It was my first winning session in what seems like an eternity. The timing couldn’t be better. Played a few big hands. Ran AKhh into a station on a 7 8 10hh flop, turn was 5h. He’s a station with at least some concept of ranging, so he called off 2/3 on the turn and 3/4 on the river assuming I had a overpair or air.

Didn’t play any hands where I thought I made a –EV play. Generally played like a nit.



Made a prop bet with my friend for $100. Biggest knowledge based prop bet of my life. I’m making a thread in statistics section for it. My friend is saying that if you move up stakes, a lower win rate = more variance. In practice this may be true, but I’m 99% confident that win-rate is mutually exclusive of variance, and stakes. Example: Player A wins 50bb/100 one session, and loses -40bb/100 the next session at NL5. His average winrate is 10bb/100, and his variance is X. Player B wins exactly 4bb/100 over 2 sessions at NL10. Player B has 0 variance, Player A has variance X which is >0. Player B has less variance, a lower WR, and is playing higher stakes. If someone can prove this wrong I’m out 5k pesos.


Profit: $329
Hours played: 5
Hourly win-rate: $65.80

I would love to have a low/mid-stakes live mixed game with PLO8/NLO8/FLO8.

Good Luck

I hope you smash this challenge like you did your others.

Can I ask why you would quit if you cant achieve this - I mean what are you going to do that would give you the flexibility you have now?

Regards

Thx!

I'd likely make a transition to becoming an independent financial adviser.
Got a degree in finance, a few Canadian designations, good extracurricular experience, and a couple years experience in retail banking.

I enjoy poker so I would certainly play on the side. Being an independent financial adviser has a similar (but less flexible) lifestyle compared to poker.

NLH/PLO/PLO8 would be great fun and probably juicy. We should try and get a game going in Manila. I could probably get a couple people together.

I'm assuming your NHL game is at least decent and your god at PLO8, so you'd clean up.

I know the run 50/100 regularly at Metro, how often does 100/200 run there, or are you playing at another room?

Where do they play 50/100/200 in Cebu, also in Metro? I know I've never seen it at Waterfront. Now that I think of it they might play it a Diamond.

I'm playing at Resorts world most the time in Manila. The 100/200 isn't 100% of nights, but most Sundays and Thursdays, occasionally Mon-Weds, every weekend.

50/100/200 is rare anywhere from what I've experienced/heard. I've heard occasionally at diamond, and I played it at waterfront lahug 2 weekends ago.

Are you based in Manila?

Interesting, I've never seen it at Waterfront Lahug, and I used to play there a lot. I do remember seeing it at Diamond a few times.

As for Manila, I've never been to Resorts World, pretty much just Metro, and one other room in Pasay, so that might explain why I haven't seen that game.

As for me, I've lived in both Manila and Cebu at various points over the last few years, but atm I'm in the U.S.

Update:

Live poker scene is pretty dead in Cebu Mon-Thur.

I've been playing PLO8 6max/fr/sng's and 10NL. I've made something like $30 over the last 4 days (~20 hours).. I tried taking a few shots at 50PLO8 which ended fairly neutral.

NL10:



The games are pretty soft. I will continue 4-tabling and marking hands. Would like to move up, but would feel comfortable getting in 15k hands so I feel more comfortable that I'm beating the game. Gonna be posting some hands where I'm confused on optimal play.


The hands where I'm getting really lost at NL10 is when I'm OOP in a 3b pot. I always seem to get in these spots with hands like 22-99, AJs/AQs. With the pairs I'm set mining, and AJ,AQ whiffing most flops, and then I still dont know where I stand. It seems like this is a leak, but I'm not sure how to combat it. I do 4b AKo/JJ+ in most cases. Should I be 4betting bluffing the bottom of my range? I'm going to to a bit of problem solving/rambling to find out. Feel free to critique my logic.

V1= NL10 reg, only couple hundred hands. 3b%=5, fold to 4b = 2/4 (not significant),
Hero= something like 22/12/6, low 4b % but small sample for V1.

If we assume 100bb effective stacks, and I raise 3bb, V1 3b to 10bb with 10% of his range, Should I 4b/fold my low equity hands like KJs-KQs/A10s-AJs/22-99?

There would be 14.5bb in the pot so If I 4b/fold I would need to put it something like 38bb. I would have to pick up the pot ~72% of the time. So, if hes 3betting 5% his range is 88+, AJs+ AQo+. (~66 combos) I would need him to fold 47 combos. Essentially, if his 4b calling/5b range is anything wider than KK/AA/AKs It's -EV.

So, the answer is no.

The only way I can see the math working in favor of a 4b bluff OOP is if you have;
(1) someone who 3bets light (3b range =>10%)
(2) has a high fold to 4b%
(3) doesn't 5b bluff.

I assume my "4b bluff oop" criteria may be met at NL25+, but I haven't seen any spots at NL10, or in my live poker career.

hey man

good luck with the challenge. won't be easy given you're based in the Philippines.

i've played a lot of poker in manila last year. at metro games often get bigger at night in the sense that the 50/100 game would become 50/100/200. it's mainly regs though and they're not your typical live nit/fish. not wanting to sound like a douche but from what i've seen u seem to struggle even at 10NL so stay away from there



I'd play at resort world 90% of the time. Games are much more juicy. They even had 200/400 last time i was there.

Yeah, this is the real reason I wouldn't want to be doing this in Phil. There lowest stakes are 10/20 p, just .25/.50 USD. So by the time you get up to 50/100 one $1.25/$2.50 the games are already somewhat tough. Compare that to the U.S where you could play easier $2/$5 games most likely.

Although, obv cheaper to live in Phil, and often much more fun as well.

Game selection will make this challenge tougher than it already is. May end up being closer to 9-10months. As stated earlier, I hope to play elsewhere too. I'm hoping to put in at least 50hours in Cambodia, 50 in Korea, and 100 in Ottawa/Montreal.

When I'm in Manila, I will play resorts world 90% of the time. I want to hit metro and a few smaller rooms in Manila to add poker chips to my collection.

In terms of 'struggling at NL10'. I have played <3k hands at NL10. I don't really know how NL10 plays. That being said, I don't expect to be a superstar at NL10/NL25 overnight-- I think it will take at least a couple weeks.



Played a small session today. Planning on playing some more (probably PLO8) later tonight. Spiked a few sets and won some monies.

I'm gonna try and post 3 hands from each session to analyze. Input is welcomed!

Giraffe;



Hand1:
Villain had an aggro factor of infinite and had 3b me twice already in a session of <70 hands. I can't show HUD on PT3(wtf?) but I think he had a lowish VPIP.

Bodog - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $3.75
CO: $12.49
BTN: $17.20
SB: $19.48

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 8 8

fold, CO raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.95, CO calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 6 6 K
Hero checks, CO bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.15, 2 players) A
Hero checks, CO bets $2.07, Hero raises to $7.95 and is all-in, fold

I feel like this was pretty wreckless looking back. I need him to fold ~57% to show a profit here.

I'm trying to fold out overs, 99-qq, KQs, A10s-AQo by repping AA/KK/AK. The thing is, I think his range on the turn bet is; 9 AK, 6 AQ, 4 AJ-A10, 6 AA/KK, Maybe 5 combos of 99-QQ, ~5 combos of overs,. So I need him to fold A10-AQ here to show a profit. My line looks super strong, but not sure how tight or aware villain is based on short history.

It ended up working.. I think its -EV in the long haul though. I would have felt more comfortable if I was confident in Villains aggro maniac aggression, and If I had the 8 of spades

Hand2:
Bodog - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $10.55
Hero (CO): $10.00
BTN: $8.24
SB: $22.70
BB: $6.93
UTG: $9.95

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A K

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.35, fold, fold, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25, 2 players) 6 8 5
BB bets $5.83 and is all-in, fold

Villain is unknown. Has 3bet once in 50 hands.

Should I be 4betting here? Let's analyze:

If we think his 3b range is his top 4%, I have 44.5% equity.

If I jam, I fold out 99-1010 (15% of his range) and air (lets say 5%).
If I jam, I get called by JJ+, AKo+.

EV calc;

.20 x 1.6 =
.80 x [( .43 x 7.32 ) ( .57 x 6.58 ) ] =

= .32 - .48
EV = -.16

Some other considerations; If he is an unknown there is a slight chance he is just around to gambooool and say 5% of the time he snaps my 4b with any suited, pair, or broadway. In that case, the 4b would be slightly +EV.

So, 4betting doesn't seem like the right play. Is calling and hoping to hit a FD or better correct? Yeah. Were getting 2:1. We should get one street of value if we hit a pair (which we do 35% of the time). Also, we can get into a profitable situation most of the time if a spade draw hits. So, we have expressed and implied odds to flat here.

Hand3:

I think the biggest error I made of the session was in this hand..
As always, villain unknown.

Bodog - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $9.70
Hero (CO): $10.05
BTN: $10.31
SB: $8.45
BB: $9.65

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q A

fold, Hero raises to $0.35, fold, SB calls $0.30, fold

Flop: ($0.80, 2 players) 6 5 K
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.80, 2 players) 2
SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, SB raises to $2.20, fold

My turn bet is repping KQ/AK, AA/KK. His flat on the flop looks like K10-KQ, maybe a mid-pp, a set, or FD.

On the turn, I have ~10% equity vs the aforementioned range. This bet is so small that its only folding out mid-pps (maybe?). The cont bet needs to take it down 30% of the time to show a profit. I doubt villain is folding 30% of the time to this second barrel, so its a bad bet. I should c/f.

Woke up today and read an ebook called "Let there be range" which is a nice guide on how to own the low/mid stakes nlh cash games written by a few NHL high stakes pros in an entertaining format. Then I played a short NL10 session on ongame. Was down $7.

The guide had a nice sample hand where someone check/min raised an aggressive player with a high cont bet % on a Kxxr board with a gutshot. He reasons there are few combos that can call a minraise (ak/kk/aa only). Anyways, I ended incorporating this into my play today. Of course, I got called, then fired again on the river. Ran into AK, Lost half a buyin-- doh!

Hand1:

Villain is 23/19 over 27 hands. Has cont bet 3/5 flops.

OnGame - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $3.65
BB: $10.00
Hero (UTG): $13.83
MP: $12.96
CO: $10.10
BTN: $3.40

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 5 5

Hero calls $0.10, fold, CO raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15, 2 players) K 9 4
Hero checks, CO bets $0.85, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $0.90

Turn: ($4.65, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($4.65, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00


Actually though, the play does seem pretty decent overall. The issue is if you get called on the flop you pretty much have to give up on turn/river unless you are up against a special type of loose opponent who likes to call flops and folds on later streets. I am too aggressive (leak), so I firedddd.

Hand2:

Villain is lag. Me and villain have been playing back at each other a lot, not sure if this makes my play good or bad. Let's figure it out.

My image is TAG.

OnGame - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $21.61
BTN: $11.28
SB: $9.90
Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $9.24

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A 7

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.40, 2 players) 4 3 7
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.00, 2 players) 6
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $9.50 and is all-in, fold

Villains range is flush, set, 2p, straight, overpair+heart, and a bit of air. I think based on sizing hes way more likely to have a set, 2 pair or a straight. Also I have the Ah as a blocker and for added equity if I get called by a flush or straight with a heart. I think villain folds overpair+heart/2p/set. I think he calls 50% of his non-heart straights.

I'm risking $9 to win $4 with ~17% equity if I get called. Therefore, I need villain to fold;
=X(4) + ( 1 - x )[(-9 * .83) + (13 * .17)]
4x/(1-x)= -7.47 + 2.21
4x = -5.26 + 5.26x
5.26 = 1.26x
x=24%

villain needs to for 24% to show a profit. That seems optimistic. If so, my shove is brilliant because hes folding 24% of the time.

Hand3:

No reads on villain. Bought in short. Probably a fish.

OnGame - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $11.16
Hero (BB): $10.78
BB: $8.35
UTG: $10.00
CO: $3.39

Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.10) Hero has A J

fold, fold, CO calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, CO calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.80, 2 players) A Q T
Hero bets $0.60, CO calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.00, 2 players) J
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($2.00, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.39 and is all-in

So the river is where I got really confused here. I assumed I could get value from lower 2p, from this fish. Maybe. But, hes probably showing up with a hand that beat me 75% of the time. The 15% of the time I'm winning hes probably not going to try and bluff me out.


Stoopid over aggression.

My stats over 4.3k hands are 21/11 at 6max NL10.

Should I be opening my range more? typically I'm opening 55+/KQs+/A10s+ in first 2 positions, add 22-44, KJs, 50% QJs, 50% 45s-j10s in CO/btn.

I think I'm being a nit in the blinds. I've folded my sb to a steal 83% and bb to steal 69%. folded bb to steal HU 60%.

$1.2/$2.4 deepstack tomorrow night (I'm excited). I'm going to play a 8 hour session. Need to get volume uP!

Hi Tyler, GL with your challenge!

tyty

btw I praise Croatia as one of my fav countries in Europe

Got a 8 hour session of da livez poker. T

They didn't have a $1.2/$2.4 game going tonight. I played $.6/$1.2 for 3 hours when I was waiting to play $.6/$1.2/$2.4. Both games were fairly juicy. I played excellent (brag) and ended up holding up in the pots I played. I only went to showdown 2-3 times in 8 hours. I played only 1 hand where I was unsure if I made the best play.

Hero has TAG image. Generally plays ABC. got caught once raising with J9hh and getting to showdown with a busted straight flush draw.

Villain is TAG, but can be tricky. He is normally playing much higher ($5/10). He is a good, thinking player. He knows I am a good player as well. I have seen him flat open raises IP with AA.

3 limpers to hero on btn with AA, hero raises to $13, 3 callers.

Flop ($55): 9 9 4 r

Villain donks $36, hero calls.

Turn ($127): 5 r

Villain checks, hero tank checks.

River ($127): 6

Villain tank bets $160, hero... folds.

Anyways, not sure if I should be folding there. My hand is way underrepped based on the fact that I was on the btn and that I checked the turn.



Over all I was up $623.81 over 8 hours, so my hourly is looking even better.

I find its funny that I start running good immediately after I start any challenge. Thanks for the GL wishes!

Profit: $952.81
Hours played: 13
Hourly win rate: $73.29

Hey man, good luck in your challenge!

Could you PM me, or link in this thread, where you found that ebook please? Would be awesome if you would. Keep on trucking, and I'm sure you'll reach this goal aswell!

Played 7 hours of $1.20/$2.40/$4.80 in Cebu tonight. Did well, again. Played one sketchhhy hand where I called off 50BBs pre with A9s on a soul read. Naturally, villain ended up open jamming with AJ. I posted the hand here.

It def gives me a good image. It's a small room with a small player pool. My "crazy call" will def be talked about.

Also, after this hand the craziest series of events happened;

The VERY next hand I get QQ in HJ, I raise 5x BB and the same villain reraises to 40 BB. Hero.. jams/folds? I folded and he showed AA.

The hand after that hand. Hero picks up JJ in MP, raises to 5x BB. the same villain reraises AGAIN to 40BBs. I fold and he shows QQ.

2 hands after that I pick up AA, I raise 6x BB, 2 callers, and a different villain re-raises me. I make it 80BBs to go (I show this with extreme frustration), he calls. He ended up c/f'ing the flop.

Craziest rush of hands in my life.

Profit: $1539.71
Hours played: 13
Hourly winrate: $118.44 (lol sick heater)

Wait, he called off 80 bb's pre, and then c/f'd flop??

How deep were you guys? must have been pretty deep.

Yeah-- 500 BBs