Yes Aces maybe 1/2 the time. Is that often enough to add in more bluffs?

big slick??

AQ more likely and better hand to target to shake off. Overall this river card is really ****ty and probably the best one to bluff at

Good points and questions. I'm going to stop responding bc I don't want to hijack your thread more than I already have. Last thing I'll say is we block more hands with AQ than AA so calling with AQ might be better than AA.

Thanks for the insights.

very much disagree with this for these reasons-

-very rare to see villain flat AWs vs 3b when opening utg
-even rarer imo to see villain just call flop+turn w nut fl draw (+guttor) on a board that smacks their preflop range super hard
-assuming villain plays JTs and A2ss/A3ss this way every time (they don't), getting 3 to 1 you still don't have enough bluffs from villain here

board: QsJc4s5hKd
Hand Equity
QQ,JJ,KQ,QJ:xx,9T:xx,JT:xx,As2s,As3s 80.77%
AdAh 19.23%

he *may* even have 44 (edit: and KK, forgot that one) in his range too...and if he has A2ss and A3ss, it stands to reason he has ATss as well. muck it and move on, wp villain

and yea you can argue that we should have some combos of AJ in there, and some bad villains might shove riv w AK, but calling there is pretttttty optimistic and requiring a lot of assumptions that i dont think are necessarily true in this game environment/player pool

I know OP very well and I am 100% sure he is capable of making it. Best of luck on the grind!

Not at all man. One of my main goals of this thread is to foster robust discussion/analysis, so if you have more to say about a hand or situation don't hold back. Never want theory discussion to be inhibited itt.

And good point regarding AQ better in a bluff catching regard than AA.

good stuff right here. this sim is money and is an example of the kind of stuff I need to start doing more of to take my game to the next level.

On a slight tangent - I thought flatting A2s-A5s might be somewhat common for villains in this spot? Not saying that's good, esp given my 3b range vs UTG, but just that I wouldn't be surprised esp since seeing people pop up with Axs below ATs in 3bet pots way more these days, and sometimes even oop.

Results from latest session, which was last night (this morning?) below. EV vs actual was a little annoying but I'll take it. Still doing roughly 2 tables each of 200nl and 400nl per sesh as part of my 400nl shot taking

Small update on working out goal: One thing I didn't mention is that at the start of working out a few weeks ago, I drew some inspiration from Polkadot's Snapchat prop bet and did one myself with a friend. Basically, I have to send my buddy 5 Snaps a week of me at the gym or I owe him $100 for that week. It's a one-way bet designed to help keep me motivated on tough days so he won't ever owe me anything. So far it's working as I've met the goal for the first 3 weeks and I'm down ~4 lbs. 21 left... lfg

last comment about that hand, re: flatting a sb 3b from utg w A2s/A3s-

-almost certainly gonna be more common to see people stick these two hands into their 4b range (if they're not folding) since a good chunk of sb's 3b bluffs will be Ax and A2/A3 dominate none of them
-i'd be less inclined to flat vs a bigger (more than pot) sizing and vs an opponent who i 1) am uncertain of just how wide they're 3betting vs utg here, or not suspecting them to get out too far of line and 2) have limited to non-existent postflop reads on

just my two cents

What's up guise - I haven't played since the last session I posted itt but I'm currently reviewing some hands and will be posting some hh here for feedback/thoughts.

This first one, the BB was a fish. Relevant stats are: 41/28 vpip/pfr, 10% 3bet, 17% fold to cbet, 1.9 overall aggression factor, and 70% River aggression through 56 hands.

Thoughts on how I played this hand and the strategy employed here? v small cbet flop to keep range v wide then x/c mode. River bet obv super polarizing, seems to be repping either TT, flush draw, or Qx.

I think you played it fine up to the river. Im not folding vs a guy with these stats. I dont think he bets Qx for this sizing after going small on the turn. Really looks like Asx to me.

you're getting a lol price on turn but it's a stretch to even get you to 20% here and this is like one of the worst hands in ur range (u theoretically have 55,TT,QQ,lots of Qx,JJ,KK,AA,flushes,JT:xx), you dont have a spade, villain's range isn't that wide by virtue of coldcalling a 3b to the face pre, and i'd expect him to bomb river with most of the hands that he takes this turn sizing with, even if his river agg freq was <70% through 10 orbits, so you're very rarely going to realize your equity with this hand (only when you spike a 9 or villain x back riv and shows down some dolty 66 type hand, or an A hi that he didnt bluff on a double paired riv).

im not expecting a 40-something vpip fish to coldcall a 3b with offsuit Ax that are worse than AT, so you're gonna have a hard time coming up with bluffs for him in this spot. AsJx? probably. KJdd/AJdd? maybe. if he floated you with complete air on flop, do you really think hes now betting <1/3 pot on this scare card turn? probably not.

turn is a call with a spade, fold without one.

Taking the weekend off from online pokarz because I'm driving up to NorCal for a buddy's wedding tomorrow. Mutual friend of ours is a big gambler and got us room comps at Thunder Valley Casino near Sacramento so I'll be there tonight & tomorrow night after the wedding. Any of y'all know how the action is at Thunder Valley? Per the Atlas, looks like they have a 100bb $1/$3 game that always runs and a potentially juicy 200bb $2/$5 that runs evenings & weekends.

Some sexy run good in last night's session, more than making up for last session's EV diff. Most of it came from binking KK > AA 100bb deep vs a fish who had just doubled up with AA vs someone else. I'll take it

Been crazy busy this past week but def want to start kicking up my volume big time this month. Have had a lot of events this year - random vacations (Lake Tahoe was nutted), birthdays, bachelor party weekend - but this wedding is the last major weekend distraction that I had scheduled for the first half of the year. So no more excuses... time to ****in grind my ass off!

Weekend was good - wedding was a ton of fun. Also got a chance to check out mid-town Sacramento, which much to my surprise, was super crackin.

Had a short but good session playing cards at Thunder Valley. Not a place I would recommend, though. The games were pretty nitty and horrible action, esp when compared to the live LA games I'm so used to. But I did my best to adjust by significantly increasing my aggression.

First session since being back. Ran kinda mehhh and nothing too exciting but w/e. Will be posting a couple hands later today.

Latest session (last night) below. About to fire up some tables right now. If the games aren't as hoppin online as I'd like, I might head out to the Bike or Hollywood Park later tonight. Should know within an hour or two. Happy Friday and GL at the tables everyone!

Long. poker. sessions. are.

very mentally taxing.

As tends to be standard with 6+ hr sessions of online pokarz - it was a rollercoaster night. Lot of battling. From a high of $1267 to a low of -$230, we finished slightly above the midpoint. I'll take it ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

6+ hr sessions tend to mentally wear me out a bit, which is part of the reason I've recently tried breaking up my sessions into smaller ones spread out throughout the day. I personally feel like I work best in 3+ hr energy spurts. But alas, it's Friday night and games were hawt all night up until a moment ago.

Ok guise, I realize this thread has been way lacking the # of HH's I envisioned. So I'm def gonna be shifting gears here moving forward and posting way more of em. Have really enjoyed the discussion for the few I have posted. Here's some from last night:

h1 x/c
h2 x/f on bricks
h3 is fine. turn mix x/c
h4 probably fine tripple but overbluff. probably x/f flop. AP bet smaller river.. no need to polarize

Last 2 online sessions below.

Also played 6 hours live of $5/$5 this week at Hollywood Park and Hustler. Ran blehhh and lost -$350. Been running pretty lame at live this year - down like 4 BI in 60 hours total. Live variance is really something else sometimes given the tiny hands/hr. Given the small sample size, I try not to let it bug me as much as it used to when I run bad over 50+ hours of live, but it can be hard since I know the games are ridiculously soft and I have a v high expectation for myself in live games especially. Need to hit that live upswingggg this year

good feedback! here's my thoughts,

h1 - I like x/c too. What do you do if villain bets $100+ on turn?

h2 - ya I like that

h3 - the more I've thought about it since, I think we can find a fold here because of Beluga Theory + us having Ac removes potential aggro bluffs he might have. Argument can be made that it's close either way though vs a guy who's only info we have is fishy preflop stats in small # of hands - he could be scared overplaying Qx or just spazzing with something like JTs. agree with mixing in x/c on turn esp vs aggro boys

h4 - agree with general idea of not needing to polarize river when 100 bb deep, but he was short stacked and had just a pot size bet left on riv which is why I potted it/put him all in. I do like the cbet here though because we have 2 overs and backdoor flush. Lot of good turn cards we can barrel, Q/K/A (probably J too) and any spade.

tonight's sesh. thinking of hitting up Hollywood Park tomorrow for some live splashin around. Tonight played mostly 400nl like 80%. Overall on the month the 400nl/200nl split is 45/55 so pretty close to the 50/50 I'm targeting. Redline gonorrhea tonight... had to fold in quite a bit 3bet pots. Otherwise my redline as a whole has been breakeven/slightly + past 50kish hands.

I dont think you should really too much on stats tbh , your samples are really small so and I wouldnt let them influence my decisions too much.

h1) range cbet flop, x/c, x/f most runouts. maybe even x/f turn vs big sizign
h2) I think your line is fine, betting turn again for 40% is probably viable aswell
h3) dont 4b AQo for value, too thin imo. him 3b oyu alot is probably jsut variance. AP your hand is a x/f on the flop, definatly not 1/3.5 pot on this sizing and versus his wide range

nice thread! gl gl