variance 'doesnt remember', u might never catch your redline
i am running around ev last 9 months or so, after running under it for 3 years month by month
usually it was something like: winnings + rb = ev at the end of each month, and sometimes worse ;p
if anything you should count your badluck in buyins like u said, thats why moving down is painful, but it often means higher ev roi+lesser swings+building confidence back