Mate WTF!!! all of this is BS, If you have no history or hands with him no reason to think he's randomly spazzing or semi bluffing turnt flush draws or anything, then he always has the hand he's repping from his player type with no history. If you think he defends the blind with AJ why wouldn't he peel 88 66 ect. What pairs do you see ppl lay down in live poker when they put their opponent on a big hand and have the opportunity to go set mining and crack that big hand.........none!! I see ppl cold call and overcall with any pair countless times. QQ? JJ? from random no just no. If he is the type to spew/spazz and go crazy here he'll do it again and you can adjust when the spot comes up again but in general with no history i would toss this until i see he's capable of spewing here. That being said there is a small percentage of times he could go awol with AK/AQ but this is an extremely small percentage of the time and again you will find out if he is that type of player and adjust.

Iyo what is a sustainable hourly / bb/100 through the smallest and biggest limits you play? Are you going to wsop? When you list your total / hourly is that your total BR, or the amount that you're up?

I have similar problems. I take measures to try and keep my sn anonymous, but I've accidentally posted a graph with username before and there are a few players who know my SN.

Pretty sure some of the regs read my thread, exploit my thought process. It sucks because I have to post less strategy now

I discount AQ/AJ because of the polarizing check/raise action, I think his most likely hands are pocket pairs. The question is, which one of us is crushed. Like I said, if I knew FOR SURE that this guy was a rec player I snapfold. People don't take a check flop checkraise turn line that often as a bluff.

Meh. That's what I get for playing NLHE

Sustainable winrate- you mean for anyone? I would GUESS that the best player in the world can probably beat the 5/10 game I play in for around ~200bb/100 hands if they play during the best 20 hours during the week. I mean I know my winrate (over 350 hours) as well as the much-higher-winrates-over-much-larger-samples of the two best regulars in my game (limon and Marvin IMO, no offense to anyone else) don't come anywhere close to that, but all 3 of us A) have countless leaks, B) don't game select at all, and C) don't always play our A-game.

Which is fine, that's why we're grinding out a nice living here instead of playing Galfond HU online, and we have a good time basically every single day.

The main reason live differs from online is you have an unquantifiable aka infinite amount of information. Obviously the best player in the world can't win even close to that much bb/100 online even in $0.01/0.02 games. However now I'm actually kind of curious what winrate you would have in terms of bb/100 at the lowest limits of play money games... here's a estimate:



~~~~

wsop- probably not, might stop by it's close enough to make a weekend trip

total- it's the amount I'm up, which happens to be close to my bankroll. As I've posted before, I still work part time (about 5 hours a week on average) for the FDA and that alone covers my expenses. I need to find something worth investing in though soon.

Well.. I think the way to go about this is figure out how much bad players are losing in terms of bb/100.. Then try and figure out expectation sitting at the table with them.

Ex: If spewtard is shoving 100% pre and we call 25%, we have xbb/100 expectation against him. Then assume other players are terrible losing on average ~15bb/100 vs hero. I dunno, I'd guess in the 100bb/100 range.

edit: Or another way you could try and solve it is assume that hero has perfect information and try and figure out how much bb/100 can be made if we know everyones hole cards.

^ I edited in an estimate above. I think it's very reasonable for play money, that's 500bb deep though (since you can reload your account from 0 to 1000 IIRC). If you're 100bb deep then just divide by 4.

Got a PM asking what the peak hours are and how I game select:

Peak hours: on average, between evening/night at locations where a tournament scene is going on. You get all the guys tilted out of their mind for losing their 50bb stack on the bubble when their AA didn't hold up AIPF vs. QQ (or better yet, J4o), and then you also get the guys who ship the $50 SNG 40-player turbo donkaments for $1000 and the first thing those degens do is take it to the biggest game they can find on the floor and throw it on the table.

Game selection: Like I said I personally just show up at the casino since I'm there to enjoy myself, so I always play in the Bike's only PLO table no matter what because that's where my friends play (although they may not consider me their friend ). If you want to be sick about game selection, tip the floor and have them call you when the games are amazing. If you want to be average about it, it's pretty straightforward, just look at all the tables and sit at the one with the most bad players and the least good players.

Are you expenses so low that your "job" covers your expenses or does it pay so well that that's why they are covered? Also Marvin is one of the best regs in the room? I never been to LA, but the reason I was curious is because I heard on LATB that he had the most hours in the room for the month. When they said that I figured he was mediocre and that he did it because mediocre hourly * 280 is a good living compared to a more normal schedule.

Me, Marvin, and Abe all have 1 similarity between us, we make wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy more money than we spend. Yet we work, because our work is our play.

That's hilarious that you heard about Marvin through LATB. I've said this before, some other regs disagree with me but IMO Marvin is *the* best reg in the entire room and it's not close.

To answer your first question, it's more the former. For example I'm going to a volleyball meetup.com event today, which will occupy my time for the entire afternoon and costs... $0. Also going to another one tomorrow, heh.

I usually pay for my girlfriend now when we do stuff but again our interests tend to be pretty cheap.

Also I don't want to come across sounding like I have a total disregard for money, it definitely is a huge luxury. I'm still naturally frugal, here's a somewhat amusing true story from a few days ago- the day I won over $5k. I went to Wal-Mart afterwards to buy an electric razor (which I'll probably use for over a year). Basically I was looking at one that was $35, saw another one that looked better and was about to grab it but didn't because it cost $90, then noticed out of the corner of my eye that one cost $30 and I snap-grabbed the $30 one and bought it without thinking twice. Just habit, but seriously how different can those things be anyway?

Meanwhile, if I *really* want something I'll just get it, so yea definitely a huge luxury. I can't think of anything personally for me but for example Marvin is spending about $4k on a new tattoo right now.

It was Robocop that mentioned it lol. He gave Marvin a "shoutout" for having most hours played. That episode with Limon and Robocop was pure comedy. The poker didn't even matter. Listening to Limon make Robocop say ridiculous things was worth it.

Are the PLO games at the bike usually full or short? Which do you prefer? Our PLO games are typically full (10-handed no running it twice) and pots are super duper multi-way.

I almost always start the table, it plays 5-handed for awhile, but usually fills up by the evening.

I think I prefer 5-handed-ish.

Kinda screams to me A6 or A8 suited (not spades) over a set since the bet's so big - good fold scary guy.

I'm like 99% sure this guy doesn't cold call my 3-bet OOP with A6s or A8s

haha sometimes I forget that you're not playing LLSNL -

honestly I miss 1/3. You don't see nearly as many hilarious poker things at 10/20.

Someone asked me about variance in live vs. online and suggested live should be higher since there's so few hands. Live is way lower variance and it's not even close, here is IMO the perfect example to illustrate it:

You raise in MP with AA, fishy standard low stakes reg defends big blind 100bb deep.

Flop T53r
He checks, you bet, he...

In online if he has a set or 2pair somehow, you probably get stacked. In live poker you literally are never getting stacked here ever, since if he has 2pair+ he will let you know immediately with a flop raise and you can safely fold. If he has like T8 and the turn comes an 8, he'll let you know immediately by leading out instead of check/calling if he bricks and you can safely fold. Meanwhile, you get like the majority of his stack every time his T8 bricks out on low cards and you get 3 streets from "I put you on AK".

Pretty much the only way you can lose a buy-in playing a solid CRUSHING low-variance style is by either losing a flip as a huge favorite, or getting a massive cooler. Of course certain winning players may prefer higher variance styles, but yea...

Aesah....

You are exactly right about 1/2.

My saying is FTARRA...

Fold to all reraising or check raising aggression on flop and turn by unsophisticated villians.

As long as you only have overpair or top pair/top kick. 95% are never check raise or reraising bluffing. They just check call draws or just call down top pair. They will not show aggresion until they have two pair or better.

I second this. I have been playing 2/3 NL and when my AK is rerasied to 100 preflop it's always QQ+ here. People just don't like their aces, kings , or queens cracked

wtf this is awesome. I've been slowly reading through this thread, and what strikes me is how you seem utterly indifferent to the jump in stakes. You start at 1/2, quickly jump to 2/5 and 5/10, and suddenly you post about playing in a 10/25 game. Have you always been this comfortable shifting up and down in stakes? I feel like a huge struggle for most aspiring mid/high stakes players can be the soul-crushing swings, and yet you seem unaffected.

Well i have side income, otherwise i wouldnt have done that probably

7 hours, +$621.

Commentating with Bart Hanson on LATB on May 17th.

LA total: $77867, 526 hours.

Can't wait!!

Playing the 5/10 tomorrow ?