Quote:
Originally Posted by erpdlof
op, you're probably not going to make it at poker because you're a fish. and yes, it probably is a bad idea for you. however, the reason you have people, who have been on here 5+ years, saying it can't be done; poker is dead, is because they know that they couldn't do it. if you know what you have to do in order to succeed, and you are willing to work hard in order to achieve it, how can you not make it?
right like me ya?
I'll explain it.
If OP could infact reach the skill level to earn 100k/yr in EV at poker in today's online climate, vast majority of people just cant do it, he's probably about 2 years away in terms of acquiring that skill level. Fast forward 2 years from now that skill might only translate to an EV of 75k or 50k...who knows. It's quite likely lower than it is now as the percentiles of $ earners has decreased every year since the boom.
Lets fast forward until OP is 25, and say hes grinded until then. What amount of $ saved up would he deem as a successful poker career? 50k? 100k? 500k? So what would he have to average each year to attain those #s? Minus living expenses and taxes.
When you play poker for a living the idea is to accumulate $ that you otherwise wouldn't have been able to in a more standard career route. That's the pay off. Because you're certainly giving up other things. You'd be 25 and have no education or work experience so you're going to start from scratch then and be at a big disadvantage compared to other 25 year olds. There is some #$ that's worth it. Back in the day it wasn't that much of a stretch to achieve a big enough # to where it made sense to forgo other opportunities. I decided for me it was worth it to not work if I was able to achieve a few hundred thousand net worth by like 23-24. In the current poker environment it is INFINITELY harder to achieve an EV that will create that kind of wealth in that period of time than it was 4 years ago, even 2 years ago. And basically impossible from the states online.
The lower the # is to satisfy you, which means your other options aren't very good, the less likely you are to be able to achieve a high $EV/yr in poker. [Dumber people generally aren't going to be as good at poker!]
At this point I'm just talking, not really trying to persuade the OP as he's just going to have to figure that out for himself, which is OK. Also it seems like he's working too so that's good. Not saying don't play poker, just saying don't put many of your eggs in that basket. Take it seriously and train hard but do it in addition to something else that furthers your life in a meaningful way.