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Old 06-16-2016, 04:00 PM   #201
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

hang in there man. big picture is you're up 33k in 2.5 months this year.
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Old 06-16-2016, 05:38 PM   #202
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Originally Posted by jlevu View Post
hang in there man. big picture is you're up 33k in 2.5 months this year.

Yeah thanks, that's what I keep telling myself. Psychology aside it's starting to add up though. Due to the swing and other expenditures I talked about a few posts back the BR has gone from almost 6 figures less than a month ago, to further and further south of half way to 6 figures, huge shift. Despite the winnings, the BR is less than it was on opening day. I really didn't see that coming. All in all it's still pretty healthy though and I'm trying not to turtle up and play $500 a day, but look no further than last fri or this tue for the bloodbath's I take whenever I step up and try to shake this mess.


I did a lot of thinking last night and I think I've set a decent limit until this turns around.

per slate;

200 $3 squeeze entries
20-30 $5 rally entries
10 $25 slam entries
5 $12 line drive entries
$50 or so on low stakes sats

So about $1K- $1100 a day and still some upside there without needing a 99.99 percentile finish in the huge $3 game that can go months w/o happening.


Also, I've come up with a new strategy, at least for me. Gonna try it out this weekend and maybe I'll talk more about it after I get a feel for if it works or not.
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Old 06-18-2016, 02:43 AM   #203
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Looking at box scores I knew I had a good night, just a matter of if any of the big mashers I used a lot of ended up on the same lineups to determine how big. I was looking for something like this:




Nice try, enjoy the $47 profit for what you thought could be a 10K outlier, lol. It seems impossible that I lost tonight, but I did.












Day 76

Buyins $1140, Payout $985, -$155

Season +$33,284


After nailing everything tonight and still losing I'm not so sure this can be written off as variance any longer. Guess I'll drop another $10k or so to be sure before I make any major changes.
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Old 06-19-2016, 02:22 AM   #204
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I built around 500 lineups between the 2pm, 4pm, and 8pm slates. The day slates were mostly bad besides for 1 decent outlier lineup that kept me close to BE. Night shift was a small winner. I haven't looked stuff over yet but I don't know how I botched this one with multiple LAD and KC stacks with seemingly the right 4 guys in each. Anyways these last 2 days are the closest I've come to "hitting" so at least I feel like I've got a DFS pulse again.
















Yesterday I had buyins at $1140 when it should have been $1040, adding $100 to the season total.


Day 77

Buyins $1412, Payout $1446, +$34

Season +$33,418


I'm taking Sun off, back on Mon with a slightly revised strategy and a new attitude.


Day 78

DNP
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Old 06-21-2016, 01:18 AM   #205
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I was drawing dead in just over half my lineups due to this:




but at least that should help my Kershaw lineups, NO:












Day 79

Buyins $1175, Payout $310, -$865

Season +$32,553
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Old 06-22-2016, 02:15 AM   #206
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Pitching was great and a few of my individual player picks worked well, but none of my stacks really panned out and I had 0 shares of Pedro Alvarez so that's that.








Day 80

Buyins $1035, Payout $565, -$470

Season +$32,077


My confidence level isn't exactly at an all time high but for some reason I feel like I'm about to shake this. Part of that might be that after a more through review of my finances I realize I'm not really in any kind of bad shape, at least assuming I bounce back and ever start winning again. Worrying about a swong, the damage it's doing to my roll, and feeling like an idiot for the timing of so much spending is some idiotic stress I don't need. So despite this dragging on past a month now I'm feeling pretty good.



I thought these percentages in the $25 Slam were kinda weird:








I used about 10% Sale and then these 3 approx 40/30/20 Fernandez/Kluber/Cueto. Fernandez was the clear #1 play but $12K didn't work too well with many of the top stacks, at least that's why I didn't use him like 60+%. I get why Kluber was the better play than Cueto (more favorable line, home, cheaper, more K upside) but honestly I felt more comfortable with Cueto. I only used more Kluber for the cap savings. 12/1 seems crazy to me.
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:08 AM   #207
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I wasn't really high on any pitching tonight but there was a lot of playable options so I just spread it around. Bauer/Hamels were very popular so I was underowned on anyone worth a ****, small loser despite some big hitting due to that.














Day 81

Buyins $1275, Payout $1092, -$183

Season +$31,894
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:31 PM   #208
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Interesting thing from last page. What would you consider is bad "common knowledge" that is out there in many places?
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Old 06-24-2016, 01:40 AM   #209
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Not very scientific but I'd expect to have one of these -90% wipe out slates about once or twice a month. This is what, 10? probably more, seems like more.












Day 82

Buyins $690, Payout $86, -$604

Season +$31,290


It's worse, I played around $200 in sats for what looks like a $5 return.

I've been playing line drive sats every night since the last big one. I knew I had some tiks in the bank at least:



8! Are you ****ing kidding me? lol it just doesn't get any worse than this.
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Old 06-25-2016, 02:08 AM   #210
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I see why so many of these threads die, every post feels like hammering nails into my kneecaps and genitals. I'd like to bail but for now l plan to stick it out through football (or me busting). I hope that in the future I can look back on this stretch as a learning experience, or maybe just laugh it off. It's starting to look more and more like that wont be the case though. I think I'll be looking back at this as the beginning of the end of my stupid little DFS pipe dream. Let's find out, shall we?












Day 83

Buyins $1570, Payout $1180, -$390

Season +$30,900


I'm playing tomorrow night but then I'm going to a party and I'm just gonna get ****ing destroyed! Doubt I'll be playing Sun.
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Old 06-25-2016, 02:30 AM   #211
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Stay in there buddy, it will turn.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:19 PM   #212
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Sat was alright, had a lot of shares of Cutch who blew TF up from out of nowhere, but all my best stacks seemed to be off by one guy. Sat night and Sun went as planned, got F'd up beyond all recognition/took day off.









Day 84

Buyins $700, Payout $972, +$272

Season +$31,172

Day 85

DNP


Mon I'm going to start experimenting with a new strat I've been working on.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:01 PM   #213
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Variance in GPP's is totally absurd but it's still 10x better than grinding double ups or H2H.
Your peak was about $50k+ this MLB season right? I went on a $45k upswing in NBA last season and that was after about 2 months. That amount came down to about $15k by the time the season ended and I didn't even play above the $25 level on Fanduel. This past season I peaked at about $15k profit and finished at $5k.

The swings are tough especially in sports that are every single night. I hope you turn it around and finish the season strong.
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Old 06-26-2016, 11:05 PM   #214
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Originally Posted by IWishIWas View Post
Variance in GPP's is totally absurd but it's still 10x better than grinding double ups or H2H.
Your peak was about $50k+ this MLB season right? I went on a $45k upswing in NBA last season and that was after about 2 months. That amount came down to about $15k by the time the season ended and I didn't even play above the $25 level on Fanduel. This past season I peaked at about $15k profit and finished at $5k.

The swings are tough especially in sports that are every single night. I hope you turn it around and finish the season strong.
Why would you say that grinding GPPs are better than grinding cash?
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:26 AM   #215
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Why would you say that grinding GPPs are better than grinding cash?
Funny you ask this because I have played cash games for a living in poker for a very long time. I won't touch tournaments in poker mostly because of the time they take and how you need to be on a schedule etc.

In DFS cash games are very tough to beat the rake. If you are a well known crusher then you probably will still do very well in H2H games but the amount of action you'll be able to get is low.

I think in today's games a 3-5% ROI if you're playing up to the $100 level games is pretty elite. You'd have to play $5000 a night where you could win at a similar clip playing about $1000 a night in GPP's because the games are easier. This changes of course when they decide to make some GPP's VERY top heavy but generally speaking if you're playing $25 and under games a 20% ROI is certainly doable for a very good player.

I'd imagine Jimmyrad has similar thoughts on the matter as I do.
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:53 AM   #216
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Cash harder to beat because of rake but not sure they are a worse choice than GPPS simply because of GPP variance.
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Old 06-27-2016, 01:10 AM   #217
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by IWishIWas View Post
Your peak was about $50k+ this MLB season right? I went on a $45k upswing in NBA last season and that was after about 2 months. That amount came down to about $15k by the time the season ended and I didn't even play above the $25 level on Fanduel. This past season I peaked at about $15k profit and finished at $5k.

The swings are tough especially in sports that are every single night. I hope you turn it around and finish the season strong.

I had to go back and check, this was my peak after May 20:




Yeah wow, pretty similar swings to me. I really hope that variance is all it is and it's just a particularly rough patch. I haven't done a good job in this thread explaining the difference between normal variance and what I think is going on here (and reading back I'm sure it mostly looks like bad beat whining and frustration, obviously the frustration level is off the charts at this point). Probably because I can't really put it to words, something just feels different. Maybe this swing is just ****ing with my head but I was way more confident in my earning potential the day before opening day than I am today after what looks like a nice +$10K a month start to the season, fwiw. Obviously I hope I'm wrong.


Any thoughts on NFL GPP's this season and beyond?
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Old 06-27-2016, 01:14 AM   #218
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Cash harder to beat because of rake but not sure they are a worse choice than GPPS simply because of GPP variance.
Nah I think IWIW is pretty much dead on. I don't want to throw water on anyone's plans but cash is all but dead at this point, with these rakes at least (and rake looks to be heading in the wrong direction, not getting better). Here's my advice to someone starting out at cash; be elite, very elite, or don't bother./
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Old 06-27-2016, 01:21 AM   #219
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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I had to go back and check, this was my peak after May 20:




Yeah wow, pretty similar swings to me. I really hope that variance is all it is and it's just a particularly rough patch. I haven't done a good job in this thread explaining the difference between normal variance and what I think is going on here (and reading back I'm sure it mostly looks like bad beat whining and frustration, obviously the frustration level is off the charts at this point). Probably because I can't really put it to words, something just feels different. Maybe this swing is just ****ing with my head but I was way more confident in my earning potential the day before opening day than I am today after what looks like a nice +$10K a month start to the season, fwiw. Obviously I hope I'm wrong.


Any thoughts on NFL GPP's this season and beyond?
It's just your confidence being affected, which is probably the most common thing when people go through a rough variance patch. Like when you're going through a variance stretch in poker and for the life of you can't seem to make a good decision. Probably affects you even harder after winning so much right at the beginning because I am sure we all like to think we are better than we are when we are winning.

Not trying to take anything away from you, as stated before, I am sure you are a winner and probably a good one too.

Quote:
Nah I think IWIW is pretty much dead on. I don't want to throw water on anyone's plans but cash is all but dead at this point, with these rakes at least (and rake looks to be heading in the wrong direction, not getting better). Here's my advice to someone starting out at cash; be elite, very elite, or don't bother./
Fair enough.
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Old 06-28-2016, 01:45 PM   #220
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I decided to go for value and use 100% Arrieta last night, we both shat the bed:














I guess I should drop the slam now too? ****it, I dunno.


Day 86

Buyins $1111, Payout $149, -$971

Season +$30,201


I was tilting so hard last night I couldn't think straight so I'm going into tonight;s slate kinda blind. 5 hours should be enough and it's not like it could get worse anyway.
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Old 06-29-2016, 03:59 AM   #221
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

hmm, so I'm just dropping 90% every day now












Day 87

Buyins $1160, Payout $154, -$1006

Season +$29,195


There are no words, at least no words that wont make me sound like a ****ing *****, or more likely, a deranged lunatic. I've been looking forward to 4 days off and an opportunity to regroup and possibly retool if needed over the all star break. Now I don't see how I can lose like this for 12 more days w/o ****ing snapping.
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Old 06-30-2016, 01:29 AM   #222
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

After looking at box scores I was thinking it was just a matter of how much I had won














Day 88

Buyins $1012, Payout $598, -$414

Season +$28,781


The idea that I could have lost didn't even cross my mind. This is what I'm talking about when I say this feels different than normal downswings btw.



I'm just making a fool of myself at this point so I'm taking a little break. I'll be back some time during the ASB to post results for 6/30 - 7/10 and update on my emotional wellbeing If I'm not back by 7/15 I'm locked up in the booby hatch.
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Old 07-10-2016, 01:55 AM   #223
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I have some time tonight so I thought I'd get all this copy&pasting done. Some random thoughts-

Time away from this thread was a good idea. I usually post within a few minutes of looking at results, and with the results being as bad as they were for as long as they were you were basically getting me on tilt and at my worst every night, and "sharing" right away wasn't helping, more like rubbing salt into my own wounds. So once a week it is going forward. I might post more than that, I just really don't want to dwell on results like I was.


I haven't exactly been tearing it up, but I seem to have stopped the bleeding, and I'm feeling a lot better about my game and my future earning potential. This has been a real wake up call though. I just assumed I'd crush baseball this year, and winning 55K in 2 weeks mid-May obviously reinforced that. Now my new longshot goal is get back to where I was after May 20th by the end of baseball, humbling. I was well aware of multi-week crushing losing streaks and multi-month BE streaks because I've already been through all that, but now I'm quite sure that even if I am still a decent winner a BE or even losing MLB season isn't that crazy, and NFL, yeah, I'm extremely confident I'll be churning out hundreds of +EV lineups every week, but 17 cracks at it a year? I'm a little nervous about just how poorly that can go.


I'm really looking forward to 4 days off for the ASB. I've got a ton of work to do outside but swimming, fishing, grilling, and drinking are going to take priority.











6-30; Buyins $1060, Payout $88, -$972












7-1; Buyins $762, Payout $3400, +$2638














7-2; Buyins $980, Payout $447, -$533














7-3; Buyins $752, Payout $757, +$5












7-4; Buyins $1025, Payout $125, -$900










7-5; Buyins $635, Payout $245, -$390










7-6; Buyins $775, Payout $1014, +$239










7-7; Buyins $825, Payout $182, -$643














7-8; Buyins $1135, Payout $921, -$214
















7-9; Buyins $1175, Payout $1491, +$316


Days 89-98

Buyins $9124, Payout $8670, -$454

Season +$28,327
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Old 07-10-2016, 11:34 PM   #224
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I was looking to end the first half on a positive note, early slate was aidsy as can be...








Late afternoon worked a little better with mostly Bum and a **** load of twins.






I crushed some sats too. I haven't tracked sat results but if you asked me yesterday I'd have guessed I was down for the year, not now.






That's 37/40


Here's some slam sats:










Day 99

Buyins $700, Payout $3918, +$3218

Season +$31,545


Best day in 7 weeks and it feels pretty good. If nothing else I'm going to be a little more relaxed over break but hopefully it's the start of something and I can start to attack again instead of always being on my heels.
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Old 07-11-2016, 01:17 AM   #225
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Nice day before the break, keep it up.
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