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Old 06-04-2016, 01:26 AM   #176
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Ugh, it continues:













Day 62

Buyins $1915, Payout $1154, -$761

Season +$42,563


I'm gonna try to play something Sat even though the forecast is just a mess from Texas east. I doubt I'll be able to get enough volume in to even be worth it but gonna give it a shot.
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Old 06-05-2016, 03:08 AM   #177
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Having a tough time breaking out of this slump, 1 day +$1 is all I ask for.
















Day 63

Buyins $782, Payout $340, -$442

Season +$42,121


I'm dog tired and I haven't even started on Sun yet. I'm guessing low volume.
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Old 06-06-2016, 01:34 AM   #178
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Ugly stuff:












Day 64

Buyins $1090, Payout $257, -$833

Season +$41,288



Another terrible day. I don't think this is creeping into my non-DFS life, yet, but it's getting harder and harder to do my typical total reset as I change over from one slate to the next. I don't know how much it's creeping into my game, I'd like to think not too much, but I just looked at results, groaned and thought about moving on to Mon (and that's usually about the extent of it after a bad day) but then I thought why bother because I'm just pushing buttons like a monkey anyways, not to mention being CURSED! lol. Pretty dumb **** and just typing it out has me laughing at myself and totally over my little 5 minute self pity session.


Honestly I thought I was pretty hardened by years of poker and that I had built up quite an immunity to any kind of downswing related emotional distress. I wont lie though, this is starting to turn into a tough one. I hope I'm not coming off like some bad beat whining *****, just not much else to report at the moment.
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Old 06-07-2016, 03:39 AM   #179
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

The downswing might continue, but the long consecutive days losing streak has come to an end! As far as all time baseball streaks go I'd rank them something like this in order of importance

1- Ripken
2- Joe D
3- My losing streak
4- I dunno, maybe Hershiser's scoreless innings












Day 65

Buyins $1440, Payout $1600, +$160

Season +$41,448


The stats from that which shall never be spoken of again, May 21- June 5:

Days 16: 2 DNP's, 14 losers.

Damage: -$13,643, or about half of what I won on May 20th. Big picture I guess you could call it a pretty good 17 days and that's why I love GPP's.
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Old 06-08-2016, 01:20 PM   #180
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Last night was, not good:












Day 66

Buyins $1975, Payout $640, -$1335

Season +$40,113


I played over $2K again today but I'll be dropping down soon if this keeps up.
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Old 06-08-2016, 05:55 PM   #181
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

You may be downswinging, but look at the bigger picture - you're up 40k. Keep grinding.
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Old 06-09-2016, 01:42 AM   #182
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Day shift was bad:










Night shift was worse, much worse:





Day 67

Buyins $2498, Payout $301, -$2197

Season +$37,916



I'm just donating at this point, not sure what to do. I might take a day or 2 off. I was planning to switch from daily to weekly updates to this thread around the all star break because things get even more hectic as football approaches. I think I'll make that move now as this is just depressing. I'll post between late Mon night and Tue afternoon.
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Old 06-09-2016, 03:31 AM   #183
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Love the thread and your updates. Obviously do what is best for you but people, like me, out there that really enjoy the thread.
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Old 06-09-2016, 11:21 PM   #184
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Originally Posted by WiCane View Post
Love the thread and your updates. Obviously do what is best for you but people, like me, out there that really enjoy the thread.
Fair enough and thanks. I was pretty tilted last night so I'll just go on as planned until the ASB, tho I might post more after I get up the next day. I think that will be more convenient.


I don't post much about my personal life in this thread, or anywhere on the internet for that matter. I've made some financial decisions over the last few weeks that might shine a better light on why this recent runbad is getting to me so much.


1 Taxes- So I didn't pay quarterly last year and the penalty was so small I didn't care and didn't plan on paying quarterly this year. Of course the taxes you're supposed to send in are based on the year before's earnings. That's why my penalty was small for 2015, would be a lot more for 16, like 5 or 6 times as much. But still, I didn't much care as it's impossible to know what I'm going to make year to year at this and I knew I wouldn't be making a dime in Q1 as my sports don't run then. I was forced to rethink this once I was up a lot by mid-May, why pay the penalty for nothing? So I withdrew the full years worth of quarterly payments from paypal, sent in Q1 a little late, waited a week or 2 and sent in Q2. This was a sound business decision no doubt but it was also kind of an unexpected bill, 4 big ones actually.


2 Vacation- I've been too busy or too broke most of my adult life to do much vacationing, any vacationing really. I was 100% going to Vegas for a couple weeks this last Jan, then they ****ed around and banned DFS. I'd rather gouge out my eyes and flush em down the toilet than give those rat ****ing P'sOS a penny, so that was that. I had been thinking more and more about Miami and by the end of May I figured the time to talk about it was over, did a ton of research (decided on Fort Myers Beach BTW) and booked the month Jan 3- Feb 2. I wouldn't undo this for anything but it's going to cost about $10K.


3 Car- My 01 Ford Focus finally succumbed to old age and the absolute ****ing beating I put on her year in and year out. 5 years worth of super reliable transpo for $2700, RIP Betsy. I wasn't buying another $2700 car. It was between a new Focus and a used (like new though, as they say) Explorer. I went with the Explorer, better for the beach I figured


So long story short my -$16K downswing came right as I'm spending, or planning to spend around $60K that I wasn't really planning to spend a few weeks ago. I mean I was going to go somewhere in Jan and I would have had to pay taxes eventually (hopefully) the timing of all this just hasn't lined up very well.


The bankroll is sound, and I'm not too proud to move down, so it should remain sound, even if this keeps up awhile. Also, I think I deserved some salary (didn't take much except for the bare min +taxes last year) but I felt a lot better about $47K just sitting there as backup than I do the current $7K, esp with my main account shrinking every - single - day.


That's probably way more than I should have posted and likely way more than anyone would care to read. I'm pretty stressed out and I think that explains it pretty well. Last night was the first time DFS has kept me up at night, I couldn't shake it. I ****ing hate that ****, hopefully first and last time.
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Old 06-10-2016, 02:22 AM   #185
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

There was no pitching tonight (I used Karns, Wainwright, and Jimmy Nelson) so I just made a bunch of low stakes stacks with big bats filling in around the stacks. Small winner, which I'll gladly take!








Day 68

Buyins $655, Payout $917, +$262 woot woot

Season +$38,178


Nice return on low stakes sats too, first time In a couple weeks I can say that. I've got 51 tickets to the super slam tomorrow and gonna buy that up to at least 100 entries. I might do 150 but I'll need to get a better read on the slate as I couldn't formulate much of a plan tonight off the top of my head. Important day in the short term as my daily investment could go up or down quite a bit over the next couple weeks. If I get clobbered gonna hunker down for awhile.
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Old 06-10-2016, 02:48 AM   #186
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

After readin that post I understand why it hits you a bit harder than it maybe normally would, but I think you need to keep reminding yourself how brutal gpp variance can be + how well you've ran so far. In the end you will end up winning as I am sure you have an edge.

Also can't wait for football season man.

Gl and hang in there, really like the thread.
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Old 06-10-2016, 03:15 AM   #187
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mzbourg View Post
After readin that post I understand why it hits you a bit harder than it maybe normally would, but I think you need to keep reminding yourself how brutal gpp variance can be + how well you've ran so far. In the end you will end up winning as I am sure you have an edge.

Also can't wait for football season man.

Gl and hang in there, really like the thread.

Thanks man, and yeah, the last 12.5 months have been all I possibly could have asked for, even with this horrible run, a mostly bad April, a terrible end to football, and an Aug swong as bad as this current one (just on a smaller scale, I think I was -$8K at the low point, tho that was a bigger % of my roll). The good days have made up for all of that and then a bunch. I never came close to this in poker, just grinded out food on the table and barely kept the lights on.

Football is going to be a ton of fun, and a ton of work. I hate to say it in early June but I really can't wait.


Oh and I see I posted the squeeze twice and left out the slam:




one last thing: I had fun making lineups tonight in what seems like the first time in a long time. I think maybe I've fixed whatever glitch I was hung up on. At any rate I'm ready to move forward.
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:17 PM   #188
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I came across a lineup I liked so much I went a little wild with it. This is going for the throat and embracing that variance I've been bitching about so much.





















I liked these a lot more at 6 when I decided to post em here before the news that mispriced keke Hernandez was in fact playing came out around 6:30. It was too late to "fix" all my finished lineups so I could have scrapped them, ran big trains, or stick with what I had and just finish up my editing with all keke/Kershaw, I choose the latter. Ended up about 50/50 Kershaw-keke/other. The smart move was probably deleting everything, we'll see.


I'm going to pick up my car and gonna stop for grilling supplies, burger, dogs, buns, but mostly beer of course. I might be a little salty tonight, if I can figure out how to turn the computer on
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Old 06-10-2016, 08:05 PM   #189
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Gl boss
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Old 06-11-2016, 01:24 AM   #190
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Another bad night:










Day 69

Buyins $3285, Payout $1864, -$1421

Season +$36,757


After looking at box scores I feared this would be another -90% wipe out session, so at least it wasn't that. Sat and Sun are **** slates so I'll be playing low volume and working on my new plan. I can't keep bleeding a K a day, so $2K and $3K slates are over until I right this ship.
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Old 06-11-2016, 01:35 AM   #191
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Do you just fanduel or dk too?
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Old 06-12-2016, 01:58 AM   #192
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesrwood View Post
Do you just fanduel or dk too?
I haven't played DK in about a year now. No smaller sites since around NFL week 10 either, 100% FD.


Another blah night, low volume thankfully:














Day 70

Buyins $647, Payout $178, -$469

Season +$36,288


Tomorrow I'm only playing low stakes but I'm building a lot of lineups. I could use a bink.
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Old 06-12-2016, 02:15 AM   #193
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Think dk is the way to go. I play exclusively on there. Better gpps plus late switches.
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Old 06-12-2016, 05:56 PM   #194
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Fan of the thread. I don't know much about DFS. Where would you point a beginner that wanted to learn?


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Old 06-13-2016, 01:57 AM   #195
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Originally Posted by icanadd View Post
I don't know much about DFS. Where would you point a beginner that wanted to learn?


That's a really tough question for me as I had years of experience and a fair amount of success at highish stakes full season salary cap fantasy baseball contests since before DFS was even a thing, so I never really started from scratch at DFS.


Fangraphs for MLB stats and articles. In general I'd say read a lot at places like Rotogrinders, just beware there are a lot of bad ideas floating around, many as "common knowledge" so Think for yourself. Learn the sport you're planning on playing. I don't mean casual fan that knows the all stars, that's useless. Learn who all the backups are, and how they're used by the coach/manager. There's so much nuance in MLB, understanding as much of it as possible is really the only way to compete with the high frequency trader bots. A little creativity goes a long way.



Sun was kinda fun, threw together hundreds of $3 lineups across the 1pm/2pm/4pm slates. Not that it's saying much but my best day in 3+ weeks, lots of cashes but no big hit, this was the closest I came:




As you can see 23/34,682 doesn't pay much in a $3 game. This lineup was 1 or 2 small pieces away from $10K. Next time!














Day 71

Buyins $1197, Payout $1591, +$394

Season +$36,682
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Old 06-14-2016, 02:36 AM   #196
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I started out well with a lot of Max Det/Cin/Atl stacks, but the high scoring late games crushed all that. I was able to make a small profit in the late night slate despite going heavy on LAA and Mil, just enough Sf 1-4 and Oak. Another bad day overall though:














Day 72

Buyins $1187, Payout $578, -$609

Season +$36,073


I'll be max entering the $5 Super Rally ($1250). Not sure what else, if any.
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Old 06-14-2016, 03:03 PM   #197
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

FD is having some kind of glitch so despite this little message on the home page:




Jameson Taillon should be underowned, and he's quite a bargain at $4600 on a Coors night.
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Old 06-14-2016, 04:51 PM   #198
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Meh they just fixed it:




I'm thinking of going more the other way now, more Bum and deGrom and value bats (there's a lot of great value tonight).
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Old 06-15-2016, 02:02 AM   #199
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Wow did I get curb stomped again:











Day 73

Buyins $2655, Payout $483, -$2172

Season +$33,901



Meh, I think I'd rather try robbing banks than start over at my 5th or 6th career at this point. I'm riding this mother ****er straight to hell.
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Old 06-16-2016, 01:48 AM   #200
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread












Day 74

Buyins $1260, Payout $798, -$462

Season +$33,439


Taking Thur off

Day 75

Did Not Play


I might play Fri, if I feel like it. When that goes poorly I'll probably take sat/sun off and try to think about things. Start fresh Mon with #anustart
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