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Old 05-13-2016, 02:13 AM   #126
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

So despite not taking any large field GPP's down I'm really on a roll now. The top 10's are piling up and it feels like it's just a matter of time.









Day 40

Buyins $1707, Payout $8684, +$6977

Season +$28,253
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Old 05-13-2016, 02:32 AM   #127
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Congratulations man, haven't dropped in for a couple of weeks but love watching you smash it!
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Old 05-13-2016, 09:34 AM   #128
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Congrats man! One of my favorite threads to follow along to. I'm in NY so can't play DFS, living vicariously through you!!
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Old 05-13-2016, 10:59 AM   #129
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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I'm in NY so can't play DFS
America, land of the free!

Nice bink man, solid season so far.
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Old 05-13-2016, 12:05 PM   #130
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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America, land of the free!

Nice bink man, solid season so far.
Depressing, isn't it? Hopefully my main man Donald Trump will be in office soon and make American great again!
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Old 05-14-2016, 02:13 AM   #131
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Thanks guys. I try to keep an even keel but I've gotta admit this last week has been a lot more fun than most of April. Tonight, not so great:




Day 41

Buyins $2120, Payout $1125 -$995

Season +$27,258



Saturday Wow what a **** slate, both slates actually. I'm skipping the 1pm for sure, if it rains in Philly Dillon Gee is the #2 pitcher on my list for the night slate (and that's not good). I'm about 50/50 right now on just taking the entire day off (and I do have a ton of **** to do) or maybe donking around with a couple hundred $ between like 6-7pm. I'll check the weather and make a decision when I get up, very light volume at most.


Bull Pen So I've been talking about tracking bull pens quite a bit, recently what a **** show Wed night was for Hou heading into Fenway for 4. Something caught my eye from Thur night in Boston.




Keuchel gave up 5 in the first 3 innings, probably not enough to get him pulled that early in a vacuum (and esp with the pen in shambles) but after getting hit so hard early I'd think they would have warmed someone up when he got into trouble again in the 6th, esp with an already high pitch count, but no, he's left in to serve this up:




There's no way to say for sure, but I'm thinking if the pen wasn't so tattered there's little chance Keuchel's still in the game to face Betts. Maybe the pitch wasn't that bad or Keuchel wasn't even tired. I'm guessing it was and he was.


Cliff's- I think Betts may have been gifted a free 3 run HR due to Hou's pen issues, and that's not nothing. In fact it's got me thinking I need to really work harder on this issue instead of having it be a little thought experiment side project.

More importantly, always be thinking about the game and adjusting. You think these ****ing touts are trying to mine EV like this between trips to the mansion? NO
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Old 05-15-2016, 02:15 AM   #132
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I ended up taking the day off. Mostly due to the fact that I hated the slate, good move though as I feel refreshed after the mental break. I should probably do this a little more often. Also, I got a ton of stuff done, errands and chores that I've been putting off, some bull pen work and an early start to Sun.

I don't have a lot of time to get into this now but thought I'd share the early phase of my bull pen project. Sorted by innings pitched, stats through 5/13.




Red dot- attack situationally. These are mostly bad pens that pitch in extreme pitchers parks when at home. So like SF's pen isn't very good, but it's projected to have a better ERA than the much better AL East pen's, why? Extreme pitchers park in SF vs launching pads in the AL East. Of course this doesn't matter when they're on the road, then the true colors come out.

X- Always in play. Some of these teams play in pitcher friendly parks as well (LAA, Min, Atl, Mia) but the starting rotations and/or pens are even worse than the Dot squad. A pitchers park can't help Jared Weaver or Phil Hughes at this point, and the fact that their pens suck as well is a bonus.

XX- Attack! 4 of the best hitters parks in the league, 4 of the worst rotations in the league, 4 of the worst, most overworked pens in the league. What's not to like? Injury or extreme overuse can move any pen in the league into this group temporarily, but these 4 dwell here all the time.



I could see how this might look contradictory as I'm talking about weak rotations and hitters parks and not mentioning a lot of teams that have both, like basically all of the AL East minus Tampa. I target the **** out of those situations, it's just that it has nothing to do with bull pens. In fact these teams have good enough pens that it's a slight negative in what is often otherwise perfect hitting opportunities. I'm just mostly focusing in on this one variable with these posts.
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Old 05-15-2016, 02:18 PM   #133
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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I'm guessing Mississippi based on the timing? Nice to see them and Tenn both pass pro-DFS laws on the same day, assuming the Gov's sign of course.
Yep, MS. The governor finally got around to signing off on it, so it looks there will be some more dead money in the player pool soon.

I think it is actually really good news for the industry. A conservative state like MS can ban but then pass a bill legalizing it.
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Old 05-16-2016, 12:38 AM   #134
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Yep, MS. The governor finally got around to signing off on it, so it looks there will be some more dead money in the player pool soon.

I think it is actually really good news for the industry. A conservative state like MS can ban but then pass a bill legalizing it.

yeah, cool. Same thing happened in Tenn recently as well. AD came out saying it's illegal, then they passed a law before anything could even be done to stop it. Nice seeing Col join the list this week too. We need more states as I'm not too confident about the status quo holding in places with no positive language (though it is odd that so many states have done nothing with so much high profile action in the last few months. I really don't know what to think about states we haven't heard anything about, good or bad.)


I'd like to win NY back, not lose Ca, or Pa/Fla/Ill. Those are the 5 I'm watching, gotta have a couple of those in the mix, or at least NY or Ca. The list is growing, Va, IN, Ma, Co, MS, TN, KS is a nice start though (remind me if I'm missing any).


Today was meh:




Day 43

Buyins $1745, Payout $1369, -$376

Season +$26,882
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Old 05-17-2016, 02:36 AM   #135
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Way too much Maeda tonight, above avg other than that though so only a small loss:





Day 44

Buyins $2094, Payout $1701, -$393

Season +$26,489


I hated, hated! the pitching options tonight (sometimes I feel "forced" into taking more shares of a pitcher than I'm comfortable with just because he's so much better, at least on paper than the next guy. with Maeda it was more like he was the least ****ty option), and now tomorrow there's way too many good options, and that's mostly a waste as Kershaw is pitching. I see 5 guys that would have been my #1 tonight, maybe 2 others, and 5 I would have used in the rotation that wont get touched Tue. It seems like it's been like this all season too. Usually teams having different off days and rain shuffle everything up by a couple weeks after opening day and all the aces are split up on the schedule, not so this year. Flukey, and annoying.


Cincinnati pitching ladies and gentlemen:




Amazingly awful, the greatest (****)show on earth.



Oh, and I had no idea this was in the works when I posted about NY last night:

http://www.legalsportsreport.com/100...s-bill-coming/
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:12 AM   #136
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Wow that K Davis walkoff grand slam was huge for me, 3 HR's, 66 points, unowned, nice (still no wins tho)







Day 45

Buyins $2272, Payout $5922, +$3650

Season +$30,139


Oh Cinci:




At least the pen didn't add insult to injury by walking in 5 runs in a row, just 4:




I'm skipping the uninteresting day slate on Wed, loading up at 7.
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Old 05-18-2016, 05:43 PM   #137
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

nice results man, congrats. what sources have you been using for park factors and how much importance do you put on them? It seems like all the ones I look through are different.
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Old 05-19-2016, 01:34 AM   #138
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Very low scoring slate, esp for me Ugly:





Day 46

Buyins $2234, Payout $775, -$1459

Season +$28,680


I'm not crazy about the slate tomorrow so I might scale back a bit.


Cinci pen:

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Old 05-20-2016, 01:55 AM   #139
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I used a lot of Sale and Strass tonight but I just couldn't resist going deep on Harvey at that price, din't work:






Day 47

Buyins $1385, Payout $822, -$563

Season +$28,117



Sats So I've never played any sats on FD before this last Sun, been playing them all week since (and doing very well, until tonight where I got smooshed). I didn't realize this would cause a little accounting problem for the purposes of this thread because if you play 5 $5 sats and win a $25 slam ticket it shows the $25 in play but not the $25 win. I noticed this right away but I was thinking maybe won seats wont show as $ in play, it looks like I was wrong about that. Here's the slam seats I've won before tonight's get credited




So anyways other than tomorrow's Slam, the super Rally on 5/31, and the Line Drive on 6/7, which I've been winning seats to all week, I'll have to come up with a new way to report buyins/payouts if I continue to play sats. I'll probably just post the lobby for each $ GPP I play and not include sats +/- at all.


So going forward you'll only see this on nights I don't play any sats:




If I do play sats I'll post this for every GPP I'm in and not include sats:






Tomorrow's Slam looks pretty sweet:




We'll see how many I have the nerve to play, at least 100.
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Old 05-21-2016, 01:52 AM   #140
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

A Kendrick or Puig single, walk, HBP, anything, looks to be worth $25K+ in the 9th... Sweating bullets... ONE TIME!
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Old 05-21-2016, 01:54 AM   #141
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread



3-6 have the same guys as me, but less of them.

Last edited by Losing all; 05-21-2016 at 01:55 AM. Reason: ****, didn't notice Puig is out of the game, c'mon Howie for $25K
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:06 AM   #142
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

gl man!!
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:31 AM   #143
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I went out at 7 when I was done making lineups and stayed as far away from baseball scores/news as possible. Got home around 12:30 and took a look, box scores not too good, results: down around $2500, yikes, would be my worst day at baseball. Usually this is when I dig in to the following day a bit as I wait for all the late games to end but I was pretty disgusted and couldn't concentrate at all. Watched a little TV and checked again at 1:30, down $2 outmother****ingstanding! felt like winning $2500. Walked away from the computer for a few minutes and when I came back to this



I read it as $3,903 and thought I moved down a couple hundred from $4110, nope, check again, WTF, The Turner HR in the 8th did that.

Here it is, first the crap:












Pretty ugly there, I **** you not these 4 or 5 LAD stacks I made were the last teams I built before lock and all I had left unedited were a few slam entries. Here's the goodness:




Day 48

Buyins $4055, Payout $30,869, +$26,814

Season +$54,931


I'll have to re-check the numbers later because my paperwork looks like chicken scratch and my brain is fried tonight. If anyone sees anything LMK
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:35 AM   #144
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

wow hell of a score man!
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:38 AM   #145
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I guess I should post the (almost) winning lineup in case anyone wants to see it




Nothing really stands out other than that Arrieta and Machado and hugely underowned, IMO. I used Arrieta in over half of my 130 slam entries, and Machado was the clear #1 SS
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:40 AM   #146
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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wow hell of a score man!
Thanks man, these last 2 weeks have been insane.
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:47 AM   #147
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Amazing score man, one of my fav threads even though I dont understand a thing about baseball

Is there just a million baseball games and a million players to choose from? I don't understand the game(baseball) at all, but I am surprised at how low the ownership on all your players is.
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Old 05-21-2016, 03:04 AM   #148
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Thanks man. There's 30 teams and on a full slate, like every Fri Night they all play, so 15 games. So 30 C's starting, 30 first basemen, and so on in the infield, 90 outfielders. Of course many are unplayable. For tournie play you can usually make a case for 5-10 players per position. I typically use around 75 players a night, some on 1-3% of my teams, some much much more.
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Old 05-21-2016, 03:39 AM   #149
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Great stuff, love this thread. I dabble in DK baseball but just a few lineups a night.

Do you use FantasyLabs or any other of the online tools?

And how was Arrieta only 7.5% owned?
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Old 05-21-2016, 07:45 PM   #150
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Wow! Congrats on the nice night man

Also ty for the bullpen stuff really making me think beyond just who the starter is
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