Sun was a pretty light day for me. Woke up at 10am and cranked out lineups until 2pm, took a 2 hour nap, went out to dinner, came home and took another 2 hour nap. So anyways I'm well rested and I've got some free time, which feels weird. I was doing some reading and kicking the tires on Mon night's slate a bit when I decided to dig into my pre-season notes on bull pens seeing as I finally have a few minutes and I've been putting it off. Thought I'd share.
First, here's all 30 pens sorted by innings as of Sun. I circled the ERA of the worst 10 by Fangraphs pre-season WAR projections, along with Col and Mil.
Not surprising to see Ari way ahead (behind really) in IP. Not as bad as it looks though as a good chunk of those innings were eaten by guys called up from the minors, used up (RIP Wagner, never forget he used to have an arm hanging from that empty socket) and sent back down.
TB and Sea pens are doing fine and haven't been worked hard at all, mostly irrelevant as those are the 2 least likely targets of these 12 teams due to mostly decent+ starting pitching and 2 of the best pitchers parks in the AL.
The other 10 teams are all favorite targets of mine to begin with mostly due to weak starting pitching and/or hitters parks (5 check both boxes) Them having terrible and/or overworked pens is just a little extra icing on the cake. Not at all surprising to see all 10 of these pens in the top half of IP, with mostly bad numbers to boot. These things have a way of snowballing. The bad starter gets knocked out early, the bad pen comes in and throws more pitches than it should because they came into the game earlier than a team with good SP's. Now the next day they're bad and fatigued, next starter gets knocked out early because he sucks and his park just gave up 2 HR's that would have been outs most places, pen comes in tired and bad and gives up 5 runs, now they're more tired, or the team is forced to make multiple moves, like ARI (calling up even worse minor league pitchers). You get the idea.
So looking at my notes for current or soon to be interesting situations, there's a few but 1 really jumps out.
Cin This bull pen is bad:
1 WAR is the worst rest of season projection for all 30 teams, their closer is projected for negative WAR (lol), they've thrown the 3rd most innings so far, they have by far the worst ERA, They've already given up 21 home runs, 4 more than 2nd worst, terrible Mil.
The rotation is a mess, and already injury riddled:
All those green crosses mean hurt, and that's their 1,2,3,6,7 starters. So for now they're running out their 4,5,8,9,10 absolutely brutal!
To top it all off here comes the scheduling quirk gremlins. If my notes are right they play April 13- July 6 with 5 days off, yes 80 games in 85 days.
So I follow the league closely enough to know that Cin was worth targeting well before digging in deeper tonight, but I didn't have a full grasp on just how bad the situation was. That's the main point of this, not for any players following this thread to know they should hammer away at Cin (tho they should, I'll be going after this mess all summer) more about how you can find real actionable information by digging into the numbers.
Quick note on the Ari pen, they finally get a day off today after 20 in a row. Tomorrow starts 16 more before the next day off. I'll be watching these bums.