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Old 09-10-2017, 02:08 PM   #501
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Mid way through the second quarter of the early games and this is shaping up to be a total disaster with several core players hovering around 0 points. Bold prediction: I go -75% or worse
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Old 09-10-2017, 10:47 PM   #502
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

back to a point you made earlier about "top" DFS players not speaking out about bull**** and touts and a variety of other stuff...it's LOL...I don't want to say poker has ever been a bastion for do gooders and $hit, but at least there are/were some higher profile people who would speak up about the bull$hit...guess they want to make sure they can get in on the grift...amazing how many DFS guys are selling packages of some sort or another...

another funny thing about the industry's future health...I signed up to DK/FD through RG at least 3-4 years ago and they gave me access to their premium content "indefinitely"...found out "indefinitely" ended on 9-1-17...pretty LOL decision by them considering I would put 5 figures through the NFL in a month...either DK/FD aren't giving them a % of my rake any more (doesn't sound right because i'm sure they are a top affiliate) or RG is run by a bunch of ****** morons...there's no way in hell I'm playing DFS and contributing any % of my rake towards them after they basically told me to pound sand...cal can go jam it up his a$$...
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Old 09-11-2017, 12:42 AM   #503
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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I don't want to say poker has ever been a bastion for do gooders and $hit, but at least there are/were some higher profile people who would speak up about the bull$hit...guess they want to make sure they can get in on the grift...amazing how many DFS guys are selling packages of some sort or another...

I understand your frustration, and yeah, the poker world hasn't exactly set a high bar for integrity, it would be nice if DFS could at least appear to reach for that.



Today felt like such a bloodbath. Going into the 4PM games I told myself it wasn't over yet and if GB/Sea was a shootout I could maybe turn it around. Needless to say I felt sick to my stomach when I turned off the game half way through the second quarter at 0-0. I really thought I could go -90%.

I played around $2K on DK:




That was a huge relief because it took a few minutes for all the payouts to add up after the late game ended (it's usually instant) So when the first number I saw was $250 I thought I got absolutely destroyed, phew.


This isn't great:




but really, I expected much worse. Also, this includes sat buyins and not payouts, and I won around 100 $7 sun mil seats. So all else being equal tomorrow it looks like I'm gonna lose around $1K- $1500 on FD, $1K-$2K total. I'll have the exact numbers after both slates (thur-mon and main sun only) separate and pay out.
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Old 09-11-2017, 03:14 AM   #504
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

+1 to bloodbath
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Old 09-12-2017, 04:04 AM   #505
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

So the Mon night games surprisingly improved my results a little, and I did a little better on sats than I thought (on FD, on DK I won 0 MM seats on a couple hundo in sat entries)





I haven't added everything up yet but it looks like I lost under $1500, maybe even closer to $1K, which feels pretty great as it seemed like a -$5K+ weekend in real time. We live and learn and move TF on. That said I don't want to learn too much from this weekend, it was so ****ing stupid! It was a nice friendly reminder of how far off the rails this thing can go, though.


Looking ahead to week 2 a couple things jump out:


1) Unlike week 1 this week has a lot more super juicy matchups. I'll be building the majority of my lineups around GB@Atl, NE@NO and Steelers. There's a few other spots I like but I'll be building around those QB's and pass catchers. I plan to be overweight all of them.

2) I'm glad I'm back on DK because FD's pay structures on anything over $4 are terrible. $3M pays $1M to first. I don't have it open but I think the $33 pays 25% to first, $12 20 or 25%? ok, so I'll just play the big $5, or $10, or $25 games with standard payouts, np. Oh wait, they don't offer anything like that. There's $3 or $4 games, or lottery, or DK. Brutal. The big $8 game on DK looks like my best option going forward.



I'm playing about $1K on FD baseball Tue. It's so weird, I live it all summer and then a couple days off and I feel completely out of the loop (OotL great movie BTW, written and I think directed by the VEEP guy, brilliant and hilarious!). In Aug I tell myself I'll try to play every day (except Sun) once football starts but in reality there's a good chance I wont put in any meaningful volume after tomorrow, which I believe was my last day playing MLB in 2016/ This **** is a lot of work
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:36 PM   #506
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Hey LA, I've been following this thread for awhile now, via lurker status. I appreciate your sharing of insight and your experiences here. I was thinking about your comments on sites like Rotogrinders, and was curious as to what sort of value you would assign to Pro Football Focus and their content? I have been thinking about signing up for their lowest tier level of membership. Do you have any thoughts on PFF?

Best,
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:29 AM   #507
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Hey LA, I've been following this thread for awhile now, via lurker status. I appreciate your sharing of insight and your experiences here. I was thinking about your comments on sites like Rotogrinders, and was curious as to what sort of value you would assign to Pro Football Focus and their content? I have been thinking about signing up for their lowest tier level of membership. Do you have any thoughts on PFF?

Best,
ZA

Hey ZA, I don't want to blow this off but honestly I'm not the right guy to ask as I'm pretty reflexively anti-pay for any DFS related service. I don't know much about PFF or the product they're selling but I'm pretty sure they're respected in FF circles, for whatever that's worth. I follow Jeff Ratcliffe on twitter and listen to his solo pods a couple times a week so I don't hate him at least (and that's saying something as I poop most of these guys straight into the turd bucket).


I know most of the top guys subscribe to FC or labs, or something, but that's for projections and lineup building tools. The way I look at it is if someone needs those sites to compete, they probably can't even with the sites, if that makes sense. I mean take FC away from Awesemo or Ehaf and those guys are still going to ****ing crush. Maybe I'm way off and someone with just a little bit of talent, like me, could make a killing by signing up for RG incentives. We're not likely to ever know...




I wouldn't say the salaries are tough on FD this week, but I'm trying to squeeze in as much Gronk, and Julio, and Thomas, expensive QB's, and a bunch of other studs as I can. Then I stumbled on these guys (with a couple nice correlations)




and of course that really opens things up:




Pretty sick, these 2 are very boom or bust, but I think the odds of booming are a lot higher than the typical 5400 dart throw. I'm sure they'll be talked up a ton this week but I haven't heard it yet.


There seems to be many more juicy correlation plays this week. For instance I like Parker/Allen better than any wr/wr play last week, at least for the price. There's really 5 or 6 combos that I'd like to play in every lineup, which obviously isn't possible.
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Old 09-14-2017, 12:25 PM   #508
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Thanks for your feedback. I paid for a month or two of RG incentives last year and didn't really like the content much. I found most of the free playbook info on DK to give as poignant insight as the incentives package. I could have just been using the extra info sloppily.

Thanks, again for the feedback. I will be continuing to follow and may chime in here and there. Happy building.
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Old 09-16-2017, 07:40 PM   #509
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Honestly Saul Goodman, Reshi, and Empire Maker are the best twitter follows obv not touts but funny and sharp.
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Old 09-16-2017, 11:32 PM   #510
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Honestly Saul Goodman, Reshi, and Empire Maker are the best twitter follows obv not touts but funny and sharp.

Which pods are the trash? Want to know to avoid them
ez
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:50 PM   #511
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I haven't had much to report lately, truth be told I've been pretty down on DFS. The games are getting tougher, the rake has gone up yet again and I have zero confidence in the clowns running the industry, especially DK. What they want is some kind of unbeatable sports based scratch off lotto to emerge from the ashes of what we once knew as DFS.


Football's been hit or miss, mostly miss with 1 decent lineup:





to cover up a hugely disappointing first half of the season. This has been a such a strange year. It feels like a total failure and the end of my DFS career, yet despite a steady bankroll bleed from mid-April through early Aug and my second best NFL week being +$400 half way through the season, if the year ended today I'd actually make a few K more than last year.


All that said I have no other palatable options ATM so imma try to make it work again next year (and hope for that big score, say a $100K day at MLB) And if I'm going to try to make it work I'm gonna work my ass off and try to keep a positive attitude. With the terrible end to my 2016 MLB season I was so glad it was over and I could work on football. Other than watching the World Series as a baseball fan I didn't even think about or look into MLB until Feb. This year ended on a much better note and I wanted the season to keep going. I've been doing some preliminary work on the 2018 season for a couple weeks and I'm really looking forward to it. Also, I'm really digging into football this week like I haven't for the last couple weeks. maybe I'm burned out because even winning $20K in week 6 didn't really do much to change my attitude, now it feels like the juice is back. I'd like to rip some ass these last few weeks but I'll be ready to attack MLB the day I get back from Florida regardless.




"(OotL great movie BTW, written and I think directed by the VEEP guy, brilliant and hilarious!)"

This was me suggesting one of my favorite movies a couple months back, except it's In The Loop not out of the loop, JFC, what a dumbass.
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Old 11-03-2017, 07:14 PM   #512
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

I feel like your perspective would be massively different if you had score .5 more points
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Old 11-03-2017, 08:08 PM   #513
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

good luck man, don't know how youre still doing it. worse grind than poker. at least with poker you used to get some rakeback, now that's non-existent.

think I said this earlier, but when RG lifted my premium subs after signing up through their links (and entering mid-to high mid 4 figs a week during NFL and MLB) I knew that was a bad sign for the industry. theyre trying to suck every last drop of blood outta this thing before it implodes on itself.
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Old 11-06-2017, 04:05 AM   #514
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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I feel like your perspective would be massively different if you had score .5 more points

Meh, I dunno. Like I said at the time winning $20K didn't change much about my outlook, tho it was a nice infusion to the BR and sure, $40K would have been better. At this point my roll and outside finances are in pretty good shape. My days of having close to a $100K roll and planning to run it up to $250K so I can really go for the kill are over. I mean that would be great and all but not too realistic w/o a time machine ride back to 2014. Now I'd be happy to grind out $30K-$50K with just a little upside, and heh, $25K last year and $30K this year with just awful, soul crushing months long downswings, that were hopefully at least a little bad luck. I'm kind of rambling but I guess my point is I'd sacrifice some of the cash for a better feel on how this is going to work 2018 and beyond. I think it's fair to say that the ball could bounce right for me 4 or 5 times next year and I have a huge year, totally realistic. otoh I could see me making $100+ in 2018, thinking I've finally figured it out and then losing $40 or $50K in 2019, lol.




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good luck man, don't know how youre still doing it. worse grind than poker. at least with poker you used to get some rakeback, now that's non-existent.

Yeah, you have to be a little sick in the ****ing head to put yourself through this. As bitter as I am I still love it I love baseball and baseball stats and making a living off of it really is a dream come true for a guy like me. That's why the dream dies so hard....




Frustrating week in football. Gonna end up a few hundred $ but I was hoping for an outlier as most of my core guys overperformed.

Lots of Brissett, Goff, Cam, Russell, Dak, Brees with less Carr/Ryan which seems like a great mix today to go along with huge shares of ty Hilton. too much Evans and not enough Kamara I guess. about 10 99.7-99.9 percentilers, but no bullseyes.
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Old 11-13-2017, 02:28 AM   #515
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

The reason it sucks so much to nail your QB's and not get paid is because when you whiff:





You get destroyed. Goff, the one +QB I did have in the mix and for the second week in a row I threw him out there with everybody in every conceivable way, except possession receiver Robert Woods, who somehow had an even bigger game than his huge game last week. What a ****show!
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