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Old 09-10-2017, 02:08 PM   #501
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Mid way through the second quarter of the early games and this is shaping up to be a total disaster with several core players hovering around 0 points. Bold prediction: I go -75% or worse
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Old 09-10-2017, 10:47 PM   #502
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

back to a point you made earlier about "top" DFS players not speaking out about bull**** and touts and a variety of other stuff...it's LOL...I don't want to say poker has ever been a bastion for do gooders and $hit, but at least there are/were some higher profile people who would speak up about the bull$hit...guess they want to make sure they can get in on the grift...amazing how many DFS guys are selling packages of some sort or another...

another funny thing about the industry's future health...I signed up to DK/FD through RG at least 3-4 years ago and they gave me access to their premium content "indefinitely"...found out "indefinitely" ended on 9-1-17...pretty LOL decision by them considering I would put 5 figures through the NFL in a month...either DK/FD aren't giving them a % of my rake any more (doesn't sound right because i'm sure they are a top affiliate) or RG is run by a bunch of ****** morons...there's no way in hell I'm playing DFS and contributing any % of my rake towards them after they basically told me to pound sand...cal can go jam it up his a$$...
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Old 09-11-2017, 12:42 AM   #503
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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I don't want to say poker has ever been a bastion for do gooders and $hit, but at least there are/were some higher profile people who would speak up about the bull$hit...guess they want to make sure they can get in on the grift...amazing how many DFS guys are selling packages of some sort or another...

I understand your frustration, and yeah, the poker world hasn't exactly set a high bar for integrity, it would be nice if DFS could at least appear to reach for that.



Today felt like such a bloodbath. Going into the 4PM games I told myself it wasn't over yet and if GB/Sea was a shootout I could maybe turn it around. Needless to say I felt sick to my stomach when I turned off the game half way through the second quarter at 0-0. I really thought I could go -90%.

I played around $2K on DK:




That was a huge relief because it took a few minutes for all the payouts to add up after the late game ended (it's usually instant) So when the first number I saw was $250 I thought I got absolutely destroyed, phew.


This isn't great:




but really, I expected much worse. Also, this includes sat buyins and not payouts, and I won around 100 $7 sun mil seats. So all else being equal tomorrow it looks like I'm gonna lose around $1K- $1500 on FD, $1K-$2K total. I'll have the exact numbers after both slates (thur-mon and main sun only) separate and pay out.
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Old 09-11-2017, 03:14 AM   #504
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

+1 to bloodbath
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Old 09-12-2017, 04:04 AM   #505
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

So the Mon night games surprisingly improved my results a little, and I did a little better on sats than I thought (on FD, on DK I won 0 MM seats on a couple hundo in sat entries)





I haven't added everything up yet but it looks like I lost under $1500, maybe even closer to $1K, which feels pretty great as it seemed like a -$5K+ weekend in real time. We live and learn and move TF on. That said I don't want to learn too much from this weekend, it was so ****ing stupid! It was a nice friendly reminder of how far off the rails this thing can go, though.


Looking ahead to week 2 a couple things jump out:


1) Unlike week 1 this week has a lot more super juicy matchups. I'll be building the majority of my lineups around GB@Atl, NE@NO and Steelers. There's a few other spots I like but I'll be building around those QB's and pass catchers. I plan to be overweight all of them.

2) I'm glad I'm back on DK because FD's pay structures on anything over $4 are terrible. $3M pays $1M to first. I don't have it open but I think the $33 pays 25% to first, $12 20 or 25%? ok, so I'll just play the big $5, or $10, or $25 games with standard payouts, np. Oh wait, they don't offer anything like that. There's $3 or $4 games, or lottery, or DK. Brutal. The big $8 game on DK looks like my best option going forward.



I'm playing about $1K on FD baseball Tue. It's so weird, I live it all summer and then a couple days off and I feel completely out of the loop (OotL great movie BTW, written and I think directed by the VEEP guy, brilliant and hilarious!). In Aug I tell myself I'll try to play every day (except Sun) once football starts but in reality there's a good chance I wont put in any meaningful volume after tomorrow, which I believe was my last day playing MLB in 2016/ This **** is a lot of work
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:36 PM   #506
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Hey LA, I've been following this thread for awhile now, via lurker status. I appreciate your sharing of insight and your experiences here. I was thinking about your comments on sites like Rotogrinders, and was curious as to what sort of value you would assign to Pro Football Focus and their content? I have been thinking about signing up for their lowest tier level of membership. Do you have any thoughts on PFF?

Best,
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:29 AM   #507
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Originally Posted by ZombieApoc21 View Post
Hey LA, I've been following this thread for awhile now, via lurker status. I appreciate your sharing of insight and your experiences here. I was thinking about your comments on sites like Rotogrinders, and was curious as to what sort of value you would assign to Pro Football Focus and their content? I have been thinking about signing up for their lowest tier level of membership. Do you have any thoughts on PFF?

Best,
ZA

Hey ZA, I don't want to blow this off but honestly I'm not the right guy to ask as I'm pretty reflexively anti-pay for any DFS related service. I don't know much about PFF or the product they're selling but I'm pretty sure they're respected in FF circles, for whatever that's worth. I follow Jeff Ratcliffe on twitter and listen to his solo pods a couple times a week so I don't hate him at least (and that's saying something as I poop most of these guys straight into the turd bucket).


I know most of the top guys subscribe to FC or labs, or something, but that's for projections and lineup building tools. The way I look at it is if someone needs those sites to compete, they probably can't even with the sites, if that makes sense. I mean take FC away from Awesemo or Ehaf and those guys are still going to ****ing crush. Maybe I'm way off and someone with just a little bit of talent, like me, could make a killing by signing up for RG incentives. We're not likely to ever know...




I wouldn't say the salaries are tough on FD this week, but I'm trying to squeeze in as much Gronk, and Julio, and Thomas, expensive QB's, and a bunch of other studs as I can. Then I stumbled on these guys (with a couple nice correlations)




and of course that really opens things up:




Pretty sick, these 2 are very boom or bust, but I think the odds of booming are a lot higher than the typical 5400 dart throw. I'm sure they'll be talked up a ton this week but I haven't heard it yet.


There seems to be many more juicy correlation plays this week. For instance I like Parker/Allen better than any wr/wr play last week, at least for the price. There's really 5 or 6 combos that I'd like to play in every lineup, which obviously isn't possible.
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Old 09-14-2017, 12:25 PM   #508
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

Thanks for your feedback. I paid for a month or two of RG incentives last year and didn't really like the content much. I found most of the free playbook info on DK to give as poignant insight as the incentives package. I could have just been using the extra info sloppily.

Thanks, again for the feedback. I will be continuing to follow and may chime in here and there. Happy building.
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Old 09-16-2017, 07:40 PM   #509
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Honestly Saul Goodman, Reshi, and Empire Maker are the best twitter follows obv not touts but funny and sharp.
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Old 09-16-2017, 11:32 PM   #510
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Re: Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

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Originally Posted by LazyTops5 View Post
Honestly Saul Goodman, Reshi, and Empire Maker are the best twitter follows obv not touts but funny and sharp.

Which pods are the trash? Want to know to avoid them
ez
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