MLB
I hadn't planned on taking today off until looking at the schedule last night, 3 crappy games, unplayable. Wed I used Kluber 150/150 so I checked that box score first, he dominated, nice. Now if the Phillies or Padres had a + game I'll really be on to something. They both scored 1 run with most of my guys putting up exactly zero. I started most teams off with 3 or 4 of these guys because they were so cheap and I liked the MU. They pretty much allowed any 4 for the other slots, which is nice with the top pitcher, just didn't work out. I'm not running like total ass anymore but I just can't seem to put it all together.
Day 151
Buyins $450, Payout $352,
-$98
Season +$26,475
Day 152
DNP
Game Theory: Week 1 WR's
First a note on being "contrarian". IMO way too much time and energy are spent worrying about this. I mean there's certainly a time and a place for it but the touts wont shut up about it, like it's the most important part of being a winning DFS player, no!, Not close! Not only do I get the impression that a lot of these guys don't know what they're talking about, I imagine the dupes that know so much less and are following what these clowns say like paint by numbers DFS strategy. What you end up with is a lot of chumps playing worse plays on purpose, 8th hitting bu C's, 3rd WR's, that guy nobody's ever heard of with the 5.23 ERA, etc. Don't bother trying to come up with the best plays for week 1, what's important is figuring out the percentages,
NO MFER, NO!
But like I said, there is a time and a place for it, and now that I've got that out of the way I'm gonna dig in a bit.
I'm not going to try to guess exact %'s for WR's or any other position but based on
Vegas, Fantasy Twitter Hype, What I expect the DFS touts to be saying once those shows start, popular stack partners,
price, etc. I think I can pinpoint 10 or so WR's that should be most widely owned. *This is all based on the site I'm playing, FD. I'm sure there will be a ton of crossover, but it's all based on my knowledge of the FD week 1 pricing grid.
1 Moncrief hits all the markers, straight chalk homie
2 Marv Jones, same, probably to a lesser extent, but also even cheaper
3 Cooks, not a great price but the most obvious stack partner for the most obvious QB and many will want a piece or 2 of this game even on non-OAK@NO lineups
4 Cooper, pretty much the same as Cooks but a lower price makes up for any possible lower projection than Cooks, even better play IMO
5 Brown, widely considered the best of the "big 3" plus I think Big Ben will be the most popular of the big 3's QB's. These factors should push Brown up past the lesser 2 by a few points
6 OBJ, Brown will be higher % but this dude gonna be up there
7 Julio, Same
8 Allen Robinson, I hope I'm wrong on this one cause jimmy likes, butnah, he's getting almost as much hype as the big 3
9 Baldwin, another guy I hope I'm wrong on, but the Vegas line is going to push sharps to this game and the backfield situation is murky as of today so there's only a few options, Wilson A+, K and or DST A+, 3rd WR Lockett
So yeah, Vegas is going to drive some Baldwin ownership for anyone not content with K/DST or a naked QB
10 Dez fits here for 1 reason, DAK is going to be hugely owned and Dez is the logical stack partner. Even if 50% of DAK lineups somehow don't have Dez he's going to be widely owned. oh and maybe it's super obvious but I was thinking about this stuff last night when it hit me:
Dez cannot be used w/o DAK because if expensive Dez hits value it's going to be vary hard for dirt cheap DAK NOT to hit value as well.
11 Floyd, hits all the markers
Then we have a few fringe guys:
Crabtree, Tate, Hilton, Snead are all solid options in shootout narrative games, except I think these are all the 2nd option on their respective teams, at least factoring in price.
Hopkins, He;s expensive, and likely bound for regression even before figuring in Hou's new and improved running game, not to mention that D can't possibly play as bad as they did in the first half last year (when NUK was lighting it up, because they were always 2 scores down and in perpetual garbage time) all that aside he's a ****ing beast and coming off a huge year. He probably should go on my next list, lower % guys with WR 1 potential, but I just have a feeling he'll be higher owned than you'd think
Fleener's bitch ass is a TE but I might as well put him here too because if nothing changes between now and KO he'll be widely owned, likely by far the highest % TE. Price and MU are right, like alright, alright, alright. But this dude is a goon and hasn't bothered to learn the playbook. That's not really the point of this post though, he'll be the chalk.
So like that's most of the best plays, wtf are we supposed to do with that? First I'm not advocating not using any of those guys or even lowering exposure. My value lineups (the vast majority of my lineups) are littered with them, many times all 3 WR's come from that list. You can and people regularly do win huge field GPP's w/o even thinking about this crap. That said if you can shoehorn in a few shares of a guy just as likely or even almost as likely to explode at half or less (sometimes much less) the % of another guy you got a stew going baby.
I want guys with reasonable WR1-5 upside for every slot, so no, I'm not really talking guys like Boldin and Tavon Austin here. I mean I guess they could end up WR 1 and 2 for week 1, but I doubt it. That's what the talking heads push, off the wall dart throws. I'm looking for smarter plays than a scratch off.
Elite(ish in some cases) week 1 plays I think will be somewhat overlooked, at least compared to the above. My top 3 by a lot I think:
1- Keenan Allen, absolute beast, target hog, tough road MU @KC, but shapes up nicely for game flow. Rivers wont be popular week1
2- Alshon, another ****ing beast, tough road MU @HOU, but shapes up nicely for game flow, Cutler wont be popular week1 (or ever)
3- Sammy Watkins, TyGod ownership should push his numbers a bit, likely higher than Keenan and Alshon, that's the only reason he's 3 instead of 1
others
I heard someone describe the Cin@NYJ game as not sexy for DFS, exactly. Marshall, Green, and even decently priced and beloved Eric Decker should be somewhat depressed, tho I'm less certain on Decker.
Landry, I mentioned way up that I'm on Tanehill/Landry. I still am, less on the QB and probably even more on Landry, 15 garbage time receptions? Yes please
Mike Evans, This dude is getting some hype, but he's expensive and on a much less sexy team in a much less sexy MU than some guys around him. I'm really not sure what to expect here but lets just say if you have Evans/Moncrief/Brown in a lineup you'll want to watch the TB game. Oh and this mother ****ing beast has WR1 upside for sure.
Aiken not sexy but some cheap volume upside
DJax cheaper homerun upside
Hurns @$7K is pricey, esp for a #2 opposite a baller #1 Terrible value but should be low owned
The last 3 are really hard to pencil in with so many good/better options around the same price/cheaper, so a little more dart throwy than I like, but you want contrarian, you got contrarian. If you're building an absolute ****ton of lineups, like me, mixing in a dash of guys like that is probably worth it.