I just wanted to say thank you for this thread as I'm considering starting both of these sports, starting with NFL this upcoming season, and your thread really couldn't have been more valuable as to how a very good player thinks.

Mine will be for little money, at least at the start, but I couldn't be more excited for the season to start. With a Tigers avatar, it really just took the cake for me.

Thank you!

Just NFL



Wow, thanks for the kind words. You must have quit following my results about 3 months ago, read on!



Most of my teams started with Stras tonight, so those were all dead money. I mixed in some Musgrove and Bundy. Both pitched well, but I mostly had a lot of Hou with the better Musgrove, which was not enough, and no Lucroy/Hanley/Schimpf type combos to make any noise








Day 132

Buyins $800, Payout $204, -$596

Season +26,789



Tonight I crossed the stop loss number I set when I started losing again in late July, but I'm not quitting just yet. First, I've got a lot to do around here but I'd feel like a total loser not "working" for the next month. Second, quitting now is admitting to myself that I can't beat baseball anymore, and despite my lofty goals for football I'm pretty sure I can't expect to make a living in 16 weeks with my bankroll constraints, so I'd be admitting that this whole thing was a waste of time and it's time to get a job. I find that idea distasteful. If football doesn't go well it's going to be very desperate times come opening day 2017.


I don't mean to bring more gloom and doom to the thread, and I know it feels like I've made this exact post 10 times already. I'm not on tilt or depressed or anything, just trying to be realistic.

Nope, I read the whole thread in its entirety last night... I think you're just getting hit by the variance monster, personally.

Your research into all the bullpens was really some good stuff! I know you are frustrated because of the results, but I think if you stick to your process, it will turn. Yes, you are far off your peak, but when you get down to brass tacks, you've still made profit of more than a lot of people make in a year, and you did it in 3 months.

Just trying to be positive, I know how hard it is to negotiate huge downswings and how soul-crushing they can be. Honestly, I think you did a great job of managing a level of variance that would have destroyed a lot of lesser men. There's a ton to be proud of here, even if you don't make the lofty goal you set preseason!

The variance in these things is pretty scary. How possible do you think it is that you are actually around your expected profit on the season though? It seems really hard to actually accurately quantify what your edge is in the games. Maybe with the high rake it's just not beatable for as much as you thought and you aren't actually doing anything different/wrong?

Good pep talk, thanks




Yeah, really scary.


It's possible. If the season ended today I'd have made about what I made last season. The main differences being that I started with $6700 last season and a 6 week long BE "downswing" and then made pretty steady profit other than a bad 3 week run in Aug. Granted a lot of that profit came in chunks, but they were somewhat reliable. This season I started with damn near 10 times the BR, had a nice opening day and made $54K May 6-May 20. So April minus OD and May 21- today I'm down over $30K. Seems crazy, esp now that I'm playing $500 a day and still burning real money.


Yeah, I assumed 10%-30% ROI based on past results and the state of the games, but things are constantly changing. Much faster than they did in poker in the 2000's, so I don't really know.


The rake sucks and industry loyalty programs are a joke. They can get away with it for now because the games are still perceived to be so soft. I don't know if that's a big factor in this though. I mean it's always there eating away at profits and adding to losses, but it's not what's causing me to have what I'd expect to be my worst day of the month 8 times every month.

It's too bad there isn't a rake back program out there like there was in poker

Sat night I was looking over the Sun slate and didn't care for it so I decided to take the day off. Nice break, slept in, went out for a steak, got home and took a 3 hour nap I've been working on football since I got up.


I've been playing around with different combos a lot but it's way too early to start saving a bunch of finalized lineups. That said I wanted to put some rough numbers to my thinking at this stage and see what it looked like. It looks like this


QB

1 AROD 6%
2 Luck 15%
3 Brees 10%
4 Wilson 10%
5 Big Ben 2%
6 Bortles 3%
7 Palmer 2%
8 Cousins 4%
9 Carr 5%
10 Dalton 2%
11 Romo 4%
12 Ryan 4%
13 Marriota 0
14 Winston 3%
15 Stafford 5%
16 Fitz 2%
17 Rivers 3%
18 Eli 3%
19 TyGod 5%
20 Osweiler 2%
21 Flacco 2%
22 Smith 0
23 RG3 0
24 Graoppolo 2%
25 Bradford 0
26 Cutler 0
27 Tannehill 4%
28 Gabbert 2%

WR

1 Brown 28%
2 OBJ 28%
3 Julio 28%
4 AROB 12%
5 Hopkins 8%
6 Green 5%
7 Dez 10%
8 Evans 5%
9 Marshall 5%
10 Cooks 10%
11 Alshon 5%
12 Allen 8%
13 Watkins 8%
14 Fitz 0
15 Cobb 2%
16 Cooper 10%
17 Hurns 5%
18 Floyd 5%
19 Tate 10%
20 Decker 8%
21 Hilton 10%
22 Baldwin 10%
23 D Jackson 2%
24 Landry 10%
25 John Brown 2%
26 Snead 5%
27 Aiken 2%
28 Moncrief 28%
29 Lockett 2%
30 Crabtree 5%
31 Parker 0
32 White 0
33 Benjamin 0
34 Torey Smith 2%
35 M Jones 20%
36 Dorsett 2%
37 Kearse 0
38 T Willians 0
39 Coates 0
40 Ellington 0

RB

1 Gurley 20%
2 Johnson 10%
3 Peterson 15%
4 Freeman 15%
5 Charles 0
6 Elliott 20%
7 Miller 20%
8 Rawls 5%
9 Ingram 15%
10 Martin 0
11 D Williams 10%
12 Lacy 10%
13 McCoy 15%
14 Latavius 5%
15 Foster 0
16 Forte 5%
17 DeMarco 5%
18 Hyde 5%
19 Gore 10%
20 Ryan Matthews 0
21 Matt Jones 0
22 Jennings 5%
23 Woodhead 5%
24 Duke 5%
25 Gio 0



That's all the QB/WR/RB's I'm considering as of today. Obviously a lot is going to change between now and the start of the season 4 weeks from now, esp at RB. A couple key injuries could turn this upside down. A few guys will play their way onto the list, others off. I don't know how sneaky (or smart) it is but Tannehill and Landry are my not-so-secret-now weapons, both cheap and I think he'll be slangin it all game. Also, I'd like to completely fade the OAK/NO game but a 45-42 score (or 42-0 for that matter) could lead to a -100% ROI week, and I don't need that. We'll see how far I come down on those %'s by kickoff.




MLB

Here's Sat's results






Day 133

Buyins $500, Payout $409, -$91

Season +$26,698


Day 134, Did Not Play


And my final bull pen post of the season:




Ariz's pitching, starting and relief, is just a hot mess of hot garbage inside a burning dumpster on top of a giant tire fire. These guys aren't good...

I just can't shake this













Days 135-136

Buyins $1925, Payout $1060, -$865

Season +$25,793



The $25 entries were from sats, I'm not that dumb. Tho that is seriously feeling like a waste of money as well, even if I am +EV in the sats.


Take away my 2 best days and I'm now down $20K on the season. Not what I had in mind.

You've



Got to



Be



****ing



Kidding me, man.

Over half the pitchers sucked tonight

So some didn't? No need to check results then, haha -100%, at least I'm consistent.

I certainly don't question your process with your percentages but you really really spread your players out. I could never imagine taking 23 of 28 QB's regardless of the percentage I have them at. I think 5 QBs was the most I played last season on one site and didn't mind having some QBs at 30-50%. I played easily over 300 lineups a week in GPPs so I tried to narrow my range down a lot and didn't mind having high ownership of lower owned players.

Idk but your list plus Salazar musgrove and Duffy also sucked and I'm sure I'm missing some

It really doesn't matter because you know some of these drooling mongoloids are on Dillon ****ing Gee and the like, so whoever wasn't the worst wins.

I hear you and I could certainly go with a lot less. OTOH I'll be making around 1000 lineups a week and why not make 20 Garappolo/Gronk, Osweiler/Nuk, and Mariotta/Walker? First, crazy **** can happen and a cheap QB is nothing like a cheap SP (and crazy **** can happen there as well, like tonight). I had decent shares of Winston for his 5 TD game and made a serious run at some huge field low $ GPP's on FD, and he didn't even have many yards, Martin did all the work, just didn't punch them in. Also had him with Evans in every l/u and Evans didn't do much, like 5/70/1 off the top of my head. My point being that I doubt Winston was even top 10 for me that week, tho I don't remember the MU, and a few more yards and little more of that action concentrated towards his #1 and I bink, or really close. and all on a throw away 2% of my action type of play.


Second, a lot of these cheaper QB's allow me to get my shares up on the big 3 and top RB's.


3rd, variance. I had little to none of Wilson/Baldwin, Cousins/Reed the weeks that they were must haves, Bloodbath. I wasn't investing much at that point of the season but I was losing big ROI wise, and really weeks 1-10 I didn't experience much of that.

First results then I want to expand on the above post a bit, with examples!









Days 137-138

Buyins $950, Payouts $668, -$282

Season +$25,511


The way I've been running -$280 over a couple days could be considered a hot streak, but these have been 2 of the most frustrating days this season. Wed despite approx half my teams being dead due to a failed gamble on Skaggs I was positive I had a big day, and maybe a bink due to tons of Tomas/Weeks/Goldy exposure and some nice games from my fill ins. Well I had 10+ scores 250-280 but those guys were hugely owned like 20%/18%/15% and there were several 300+ scores, small loss, grrrr.


Tonight I was all over a not so popular Bal stack that really blew up and with most stacks I did tonight I mixed in some versions of stack A + 2-4 SD players. Well I posted what the 3 pitchers I used did. The fact that I didn't lose 90%+ tonight gives a pretty good idea of just how much hitting I had, mostly gone to waste of course.


It seems like a good player could have found a way to win with what I had the last couple days, not just lose less than normal, lol.



NFL


In my last post I didn't mention another big reason for using so many QB's. I want to try some different strategies this year, and a lot of them match up really well with guys I wouldn't necessarily use otherwise. Like Palmer, I don't think Palmer is a bad play in a vacuum or anything, but I like other guys more, so all else being equal I'd probably pass. Well there's only so many QB's that work on lineups like these, so I'll be using a few shares of them.








So there's 6/1000 lineups with Palmer, I'd probably add 1 really crazy full game stack and 3 more standard QB/WR1, QB/WR2, QB/WR1/2 type lu's. There's 10/500 on Sun and 10 lineups just like em on Thur for my 2%.


The vast majority of my lineups are going to be super standard QB/WR1 stuff, but I'm going to try to be a little creative with maybe 20% of entries. I have pretty strict criteria on this stuff (no QB/WR3/TJ Yeldon and pray for a miracle type trash) so hopefully I can keep it +EV, with bink upside!


Also, I already mentioned variance above, and that's not really why I'd run these out there, but a little insurance against a Palmer career game isn't so bad. Just an added benefit.

Standard night




Day 139

Buyins $450, Payout $162, -$288

Season +25,223


I'm hoping to only lose $292 tomorrow because that will put me at exactly -$30,000 in 3 Months


15-20 happened quickly and in big chunks from back when I thought I was good. I find the slow steady bleed off of the last 10K, at lower and lower stakes and volume much more troubling. I just checked back through the first 19 days of Aug: Best day +$223, second best +$57, third best -$ and I'm pretty sure I lost the last 10 or so days in July. Really? I'm a ****ing scratch off player now? they gotta be less -EV


I don't think any sane person would continue on like this, but wtf else am I gonna do? My options are, uh, limited. I'll donate again tomorrow, and then I'm taking Sun off. After that there's going to be some changes.


I'll update again next time I have a decent day, or leading up to kickoff week 1, whichever comes first. See you leading up to kickoff.

Bottles gonna be chalk week 1 iyo?

Brees and Carr should be the chalkiest of chalk, Luck could be a close 3rd.


Nice to have a decent day shortly after taking my ball and going home. First Sat and Mon were standard (took Sun off):










Days 140-142

Buyins $854, Payout $580, -$274

Season +$24,949



Tonight was my best day since July 21, topping the monster +$250 day that was my best in that Month+ span, lol. What a long strange month it's been






Nice to not only win a little money for a change, but also put a nice grouping in the top 100 and 200 like that, and with different pitchers and even different stacks (the 4 best were all Cubs/W Sox stacks but after that there's some Bal stacks and solo Sox stacks as well)


I really, really don't like "if this guy would have done this or that I would have won X amount" It's the DFS equivalent of bad beat whining and I consider it losers mentality to even go back and look for that ****. That said (lol) If Madea puts up a decent 40 instead of a lackluster 30 I finish 1st in the squeeze for $12K instead of 8th for $700. That's not me bemoaning my bad luck, just trying to illustrate the difference between a small winning Aug and a -5K-$10K Aug or where ever I'm going to end up. It's a game of millimeters.


The reason I bring it up is because I've been thinking a lot about my DFS future over the last few days. In the 3 or 4 days since I last posted my thinking has evolved from *Even if I hit a big score is it just putting perfume on a pig? Can I honestly look in the mirror and tell myself I'm a winning player? NO! to *After 2 soul crushing month long downswings in a 3 month period it's impossible to evaluate the situation properly. It's obviously not a good sign, but does it really prove anything? From Mid-Aug 2014 to late May 2015 I didn't make a cent at DFS. Granted everything was on a smaller scale then, and I didn't even play football that year, and a long BE run sucks, but it's nothing like a long -$30K run. Still, if I had allowed that to get to me as much as this and maybe even quit I wouldn't have made the $150K I made from late May 15' to late May 16'


All of this was before have a winning day btw, I'm not that fickle. A decent day is a bit of a relief but I had kinda pumped myself up to where I didn't need it. I could have really used this a few days ago as I didn't sleep for a few days and was just sick about this ****. So stupid, but I guess that's why they call it soul crushing.


Man have I turned this thread into a bummer. I'm gonna do my best to keep this mess out from now on. It is relevant though, most of it at least, though y'all could probably do w/o my emo mood swings, JFC. I think I've mentioned before that I'm a very private person. It feels strange to lay so much out there. Then again I don't know any of you, so **** it.


Day 143

Buyins $450, Payout $1990 +$1540

Season +$26,489



and just when I was starting to think about dropping sats I had a nice day there as well




2 full pages that look a lot like that. Nothing huge but $58 in buyins for $250 in seats is a little icing on the cake.

It's your thread bro, post whatever you want. Venting, complaining etc. are all fine. Glad to see you finally had a decent winning day, way to keep fighting.

Another good night, obv I'll take any winner at this point. That said I felt like I nailed things better than I have all year so a little disappointing. I used Fernandez in 150/150 lineups, he crushed everyone. I stacked a lot of teams but my main focus was on what turned out to be the 4 best performing stacks, Ari, Det, LAA, and Bal. I put 108/150 in the money which has to be my best % this year, and a few lineups made a deep run, just 1 piece away in several spots. 0 shares of Bourn was probably a mistake considering I made 40 or so Ari stacks, just hate using guys with less than 10HR power.




Day 144

Buyins $450, Payout $1324, +$874

Season +$27,363



Feels like maybe I'm back on track. I'd probably move up a bit (say $1K a day) if it were a little earlier in the season but football is so close I can taste it now so no need to **** around. I'll just play out the string in MLB and hope for a small bink, or more importantly ending the season on a good note.


Did well at sattys again turned $47 into $195 I need to remember these last 2 nights next time I brick em' 3 or 4 days in a row. The $25 week 1 NFL Sun Million and 9/13 MLB Slam seats are starting to pile up. Likely my last "shot" at baseball this season and hopefully a way to get a good start at football.


Speaking of football, as of a few days ago I had decided this season was make or break for my DFS career. I still plan on being aggressive with my BR, esp early, but I've come around to thinking it's probably a good idea to leave myself at least the option of going for one last hurrah at the start of baseball. So even if things go horribly wrong the first few weeks I wont be going all in or anything. I'll lay out my BR plans and some goals a little closer to wk1 kickoff.

I've felt really strong after looking at box scores the last couple nights but the results haven't quite matched up to expectations. The scores I'm putting up across the whole of my lineups over the last 4 days have been excellent. On that front I'm running better than I have all season, but no real outlier, and that's the name of the game in GPP's. At any rate it feels good to be back in the hunt. I can handle another 30-40 day crushing losing streak again next year, but let's keep it to 1 per season plz.







Days 145-146

Buyins $900, Payout $928, +$28

Season +$27,391


A couple more small winning days at sats. I'm shooting for 100 9/11 Sun Mil and 100 9/13 Super Slam tickets (both $25 entries). I'm well short as of now, 34 SM seats and I dunno how many Slam's, tho at least 25 I'd imagine. There should be a flurry of MLB sats into the SM as kickoff approaches, and they keep adding more Slam sats to NFL week 1. I'm guessing these cross sport sats are even a little softer than normal, and there should be a **** load of them starting 3 or 4 days before the big contests run.

No idea what this kid's pitch limit will be (probably low) but this is about the most absurd pricing I've seen

MLB


Sat sucked, I took Sun off, Mon was garbage, no hitting at all tonight but Max gave me enough mini-cashes to avoid a -90%. I could barely keep my mind off football when making my lineups tonight, not good, just going through the motions and playing out the string.









Days 147-150

Buyins $1350, Payout $532, -$818

Season +26,573


I bricked sats Sat and Mon but walked away with 1 $25 slam seat tonight to avoid the 3 game sweep.




NFL


I have a pretty good idea about what I want to do week 1 at this point so I started knocking out some lineups for the Thur slate before I started working on baseball and then again when I was done with baseball, just hit 200 lineups done so calling it a night. I wasn't paying much attention to how much I was using guys, I'll work off this and adjust future lineups as needed to get my weights right.


*Jamaal Charles is unplayable as of now, so he'll be coming out.


This is gonna be an ugly format but I figure some might be interested in seeing where I'm at ATM.
































I'm unclear on the RB situation for Sea wk1, some solid info there would change things quite a bit.

Kinda surprised how little I ended up on the big 3 (Brown 17.5%, OBJ 16.5%, Julio 16%). I guess they're a little harder to get in there than I thought.

Not many exotic stacks in this batch. I mean every single lineup has at least QB/somebody, and usually QB/somebody +DST with RB or K, and a few other smaller correlations, but nothing wild like 3/2's, or even 2/2's. Saving that for later...

The more lineups I made the more Sea DST/K made sense. On the other end we have the much less obvious and probably horrible Cle DST/K combo that I started to use some.

Cons- Cle sucks, road dogs, Cle D sucks, unknown kicker

Pros- Both min priced for the nut low 8500 K/DST combo, Philly sucks, SAM BRADFORD, Philly is AIDS, usage, Philly!

MLB


I hadn't planned on taking today off until looking at the schedule last night, 3 crappy games, unplayable. Wed I used Kluber 150/150 so I checked that box score first, he dominated, nice. Now if the Phillies or Padres had a + game I'll really be on to something. They both scored 1 run with most of my guys putting up exactly zero. I started most teams off with 3 or 4 of these guys because they were so cheap and I liked the MU. They pretty much allowed any 4 for the other slots, which is nice with the top pitcher, just didn't work out. I'm not running like total ass anymore but I just can't seem to put it all together.




Day 151

Buyins $450, Payout $352, -$98

Season +$26,475


Day 152

DNP



Game Theory: Week 1 WR's


First a note on being "contrarian". IMO way too much time and energy are spent worrying about this. I mean there's certainly a time and a place for it but the touts wont shut up about it, like it's the most important part of being a winning DFS player, no!, Not close! Not only do I get the impression that a lot of these guys don't know what they're talking about, I imagine the dupes that know so much less and are following what these clowns say like paint by numbers DFS strategy. What you end up with is a lot of chumps playing worse plays on purpose, 8th hitting bu C's, 3rd WR's, that guy nobody's ever heard of with the 5.23 ERA, etc. Don't bother trying to come up with the best plays for week 1, what's important is figuring out the percentages, NO MFER, NO!


But like I said, there is a time and a place for it, and now that I've got that out of the way I'm gonna dig in a bit.


I'm not going to try to guess exact %'s for WR's or any other position but based on Vegas, Fantasy Twitter Hype, What I expect the DFS touts to be saying once those shows start, popular stack partners, price, etc. I think I can pinpoint 10 or so WR's that should be most widely owned. *This is all based on the site I'm playing, FD. I'm sure there will be a ton of crossover, but it's all based on my knowledge of the FD week 1 pricing grid.


1 Moncrief hits all the markers, straight chalk homie

2 Marv Jones, same, probably to a lesser extent, but also even cheaper

3 Cooks, not a great price but the most obvious stack partner for the most obvious QB and many will want a piece or 2 of this game even on non-OAK@NO lineups

4 Cooper, pretty much the same as Cooks but a lower price makes up for any possible lower projection than Cooks, even better play IMO

5 Brown, widely considered the best of the "big 3" plus I think Big Ben will be the most popular of the big 3's QB's. These factors should push Brown up past the lesser 2 by a few points

6 OBJ, Brown will be higher % but this dude gonna be up there

7 Julio, Same

8 Allen Robinson, I hope I'm wrong on this one cause jimmy likes, butnah, he's getting almost as much hype as the big 3

9 Baldwin, another guy I hope I'm wrong on, but the Vegas line is going to push sharps to this game and the backfield situation is murky as of today so there's only a few options, Wilson A+, K and or DST A+, 3rd WR Lockett So yeah, Vegas is going to drive some Baldwin ownership for anyone not content with K/DST or a naked QB

10 Dez fits here for 1 reason, DAK is going to be hugely owned and Dez is the logical stack partner. Even if 50% of DAK lineups somehow don't have Dez he's going to be widely owned. oh and maybe it's super obvious but I was thinking about this stuff last night when it hit me: Dez cannot be used w/o DAK because if expensive Dez hits value it's going to be vary hard for dirt cheap DAK NOT to hit value as well.

11 Floyd, hits all the markers


Then we have a few fringe guys:

Crabtree, Tate, Hilton, Snead are all solid options in shootout narrative games, except I think these are all the 2nd option on their respective teams, at least factoring in price.

Hopkins, He;s expensive, and likely bound for regression even before figuring in Hou's new and improved running game, not to mention that D can't possibly play as bad as they did in the first half last year (when NUK was lighting it up, because they were always 2 scores down and in perpetual garbage time) all that aside he's a ****ing beast and coming off a huge year. He probably should go on my next list, lower % guys with WR 1 potential, but I just have a feeling he'll be higher owned than you'd think


Fleener's bitch ass is a TE but I might as well put him here too because if nothing changes between now and KO he'll be widely owned, likely by far the highest % TE. Price and MU are right, like alright, alright, alright. But this dude is a goon and hasn't bothered to learn the playbook. That's not really the point of this post though, he'll be the chalk.


So like that's most of the best plays, wtf are we supposed to do with that? First I'm not advocating not using any of those guys or even lowering exposure. My value lineups (the vast majority of my lineups) are littered with them, many times all 3 WR's come from that list. You can and people regularly do win huge field GPP's w/o even thinking about this crap. That said if you can shoehorn in a few shares of a guy just as likely or even almost as likely to explode at half or less (sometimes much less) the % of another guy you got a stew going baby.



I want guys with reasonable WR1-5 upside for every slot, so no, I'm not really talking guys like Boldin and Tavon Austin here. I mean I guess they could end up WR 1 and 2 for week 1, but I doubt it. That's what the talking heads push, off the wall dart throws. I'm looking for smarter plays than a scratch off.


Elite(ish in some cases) week 1 plays I think will be somewhat overlooked, at least compared to the above. My top 3 by a lot I think:

1- Keenan Allen, absolute beast, target hog, tough road MU @KC, but shapes up nicely for game flow. Rivers wont be popular week1

2- Alshon, another ****ing beast, tough road MU @HOU, but shapes up nicely for game flow, Cutler wont be popular week1 (or ever)

3- Sammy Watkins, TyGod ownership should push his numbers a bit, likely higher than Keenan and Alshon, that's the only reason he's 3 instead of 1

others

I heard someone describe the Cin@NYJ game as not sexy for DFS, exactly. Marshall, Green, and even decently priced and beloved Eric Decker should be somewhat depressed, tho I'm less certain on Decker.

Landry, I mentioned way up that I'm on Tanehill/Landry. I still am, less on the QB and probably even more on Landry, 15 garbage time receptions? Yes please

Mike Evans, This dude is getting some hype, but he's expensive and on a much less sexy team in a much less sexy MU than some guys around him. I'm really not sure what to expect here but lets just say if you have Evans/Moncrief/Brown in a lineup you'll want to watch the TB game. Oh and this mother ****ing beast has WR1 upside for sure.

Aiken not sexy but some cheap volume upside

DJax cheaper homerun upside

Hurns @$7K is pricey, esp for a #2 opposite a baller #1 Terrible value but should be low owned


The last 3 are really hard to pencil in with so many good/better options around the same price/cheaper, so a little more dart throwy than I like, but you want contrarian, you got contrarian. If you're building an absolute ****ton of lineups, like me, mixing in a dash of guys like that is probably worth it.