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Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread

08-05-2016 , 03:59 PM
I'll take 25k for 3 bucks
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08-05-2016 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wesrwood
I'll take 25k for 3 bucks

Of course, sure, but there's another way of looking at it "I'll take $25K for 3 bucks approx 1 out of every 2,000,000 times I enter this contest"
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08-05-2016 , 04:07 PM
DK had a $4 GPP on Monday where 1st was 50k and 2nd was 5k pretty insane
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08-05-2016 , 04:10 PM
That I am aware of cause I legit had a chance at 2nd but not first.

They've had one where first is 100k not 10k

That's usually only for the 3 and 4 dollar ones not the bigger ones
Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread Quote
08-05-2016 , 07:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Losing all

I'm sure you're right but I am pretty good at it. Once I get an idea of what I want to do I can knock out 75 an hour w/o any mistakes. I spend more time gathering info and playing with the salaries to get a feel for the slate than I actually do building lineups. I should probably at least play around with the RG tool or whatever FD offers, unless you or someone else has a better suggestion?
I find FantasyLabs lineup creator/interface the best and is the one I use daily.
FantasyCruncher is pretty solid and good if you want to import your own projections.
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08-06-2016 , 02:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrOlson
I find FantasyLabs lineup creator/interface the best and is the one I use daily.
FantasyCruncher is pretty solid and good if you want to import your own projections.

Thanks, I'll check it out


After checking box scores I was a little nervous that I got hammered again and I'd have to stick to my word and scale back even further.









I really earned that $57, more importantly, I live to fight another day!


Day 125

Buyins $700, Payout $757, +$57

Season +$27,938


Onward and upward. Tomorrow I kick these sonsabitches right in the teeth.
Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread Quote
08-06-2016 , 04:48 PM
Duffy's been a beast, but Tor going with 9 righties






Nothing outrageous in the splits, it's just that this is not a 'duffy in a vacuum' start because typically he'd have a couple lefties in the lu. I'm avoiding, even stacking against a bit.
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08-06-2016 , 11:49 PM
How beatable do you think NFL cash games are?
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08-07-2016 , 02:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
How beatable do you think NFL cash games are?

I don't have much experience at NFL cash as I switched over to 100% GPP play shortly after starting football last year. That said I would imagine 10% is very doable for a sharp, non-elite player up to a certain amount wagered per week (finding $10K worth of action at $5's and $10's and maybe some cherry picked $25's+ shouldn't be that hard across both sites and including at least some Thur action. up to $25K would be more difficult, less game selection, likely forced into more Thur action, more work entering and managing teams).


I could play about $10K a week now, but I just don't think it's worth it for maybe a +$15K season, and that's if everything works as planned. Instead I'll be playing half that a week in GPP's, and while slightly more risky the upside is off the charts compared to $15K.


I know several of the guys that have posted in this thread have a lot more experience at NFL cash than me and they can feel free to chime in.


Speaking of football, I've been reading up all week and playing around with lineups a lot the last couple of days. At first I thought the salaries were too soft but I'm coming around. I like that you can go all out on WR or RB, but not really both. I keep making lineups that lean to one or the other, but it's the more balanced teams I come up with that I'm liking more, like the 3rd team here.




I can tell I'm going to have to shoehorn in some shares of WR4-like 20th because the big 3 are gold and there's 5 or 6 value guys that I'm all over.



Baseball- ugh. I hope you all got on the horn and bet the house as soon as Eddie Mush mentioned Duffy, someone needs to make some money off this "talent" I have. The duff man didn't dazzle or anything, he simply avoided getting prison gang raped on the mound, like all of my choices, and that was good enough.






bricked about $100 in sats as well.


Day 126

Buyins $550, Payout $104, -$446

Season +$27,492


I'm really struggling to see the silver lining here. The nice profit I showed in the first 3 weeks of July has now been burned through and I'm back to losing Mid-May profit. The daily $ amounts lost is less than when this all started, but the roi is somehow even worse, I'm just getting absolutely trucked almost every single day. I've dropped down about as low as I can to where it's even conceivably more worth while to play over working in the yard or fishing or hiking or studying football.


I'm not sure what to do but I think I'm going to give it a couple more days.
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08-07-2016 , 02:43 PM
I was looking around at DK NFL last night and Tyrodd stood out to me a lot. I've never played NFL DFS thus far so kinda figuring out where I wanna go as far as GPP/Cash go. Probably will play both like i do now for MLB.

Should be pretty interesting.

What slate is considered the main for NFL (I know week 1 is just sunday) but is it normally Thurs-Mon? that most play
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08-07-2016 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyTops5

What slate is considered the main for NFL (I know week 1 is just sunday) but is it normally Thurs-Mon? that most play

No idea why DK left Mon off the Sun slate, very strange. Traditionally the main slate is Sun-Mon, which is a lot bigger than the still huge Thur-Mon slate, which dwarfs the more creative slates, like Sun 4pm only, Sun night/mon night/thur night, and the lol Mon/Thur slate. I'll play about 75% main, 25% Thur and skip the silly ****, though I might play some Sun afternoon if I'm not too tired after being up all night making lineups, which was usually the case last year.


I'm getting pumped. Only 5 weeks to go
Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread Quote
08-08-2016 , 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
How beatable do you think NFL cash games are?

I wanted to give a better idea of how much different the fields are from MLB to NFL. Here's a $1 MLB 50/50 for tomorrow. Blue circle is highly experienced, however they come up with that, white circle with blue star is experienced, no circle is dip****, or drooling ******, or whatever




So yeah, MLB is highly experienced at the $1 level.


Here's a $5 NFL 50/50 5 weeks before kickoff (I mention this because you'd think this far out there'd be a higher concentration of serious players and less fun players), I went to page 4 of the first game I checked and that's the extent of my cherry picking





You get the idea... if you're joining random $5 and $10 cash games on Sat and esp Sun morning you're gonna see a lot more unknown's than known's, to say the least. Of course there's a ton of information out there, and some "wives and girlfriends" and other types of scandalous accounts, so there will be some wolves in sheep's clothing, but still, if you're playing 50/50's with 80-90% low volume-brand new players there's going to be some totally dead spots, and a lot more that are just a bit too soft to beat solid lineups enough to make them anything but +EV for the game.


It's almost like I'm talking myself into cash here, but I've got a plan and I'm sticking to it. Maybe if the roll was where I expected it to be at this point (about double of what it is) I'd split into GPP and cash rolls and see which performs better, maybe next year.. Also, GPP's are even softer




MLB- small winner today, which is nice for a change









Day 127

Buyins $410, Payout $623, +$213

Season +$27,705


Really nice day for sats as well, made up for yesterday's brick and then some. Speaking of Sats:




I saved up my points all season and had enough to buy 27 of these, won the other 4 +3 more today that haven't been credited yet. Ballin' on a budget homies
Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread Quote
08-09-2016 , 01:56 PM
RG giving away 120 $10 MFL 10 entries

https://rotogrinders.com/threads/rot...scores-1385113


I doubt these last another hour...
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08-10-2016 , 12:04 PM
I've been stuck in limbo the last few days. I'd really like to turn this season around and show a profit from now until football, any profit. OTOH I'm not willing to lose much more so I could put the brakes on this baseball season at any time. Funny how I didn't play football in 2014 because I didn't want to risk my baseball roll. Oh how the tables have turned.












Days 128-129

Buyins $1075, Payout, $812, -$263

Season +$27,442


I've been reading a ton of football stuff and there seems to be some new thinking on correlation plays that I don't remember reading much about last year. This has me thinking about the game 24/7 and trying to come up with all kinds of different strategies. Feels good, I used to be that way with baseball but I'm so beaten down by this point that it's all numb and I'm just going through the motions. Hopefully I get whatever I had back next season.
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08-10-2016 , 01:50 PM
I had a thought on the experienced in mlb vs fish in NFL. I feel like part of that could be based off of how experience is determined. If its based off of total games played, and the number is set absurdly high, in theory it'd make sense that there'd be a lot of solid NFL regs who just haven't hit the minimum standards for a circle
Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread Quote
08-10-2016 , 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xnbomb
I had a thought on the experienced in mlb vs fish in NFL. I feel like part of that could be based off of how experience is determined. If its based off of total games played, and the number is set absurdly high, in theory it'd make sense that there'd be a lot of solid NFL regs who just haven't hit the minimum standards for a circle
Makes sense, so I had to look it up:




Pretty easy for a winning reg to hit those targets, and quickly. I think it's more that the NFL, fantasy football in general, and DFS football in particular are just so much more popular. Plus I think a fun player at least has a puncher's chance to win over a month or even a season at football. Baseball, notsomuch.
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08-10-2016 , 06:11 PM
Definitely makes sense. Also wanted to say I've enjoyed this thread, I've been looking to get into DFS. Good luck the rest of the season, hopefully the luck turns around.
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08-11-2016 , 01:55 PM
Happy Jose Berrios day
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08-12-2016 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyTops5
Happy Jose Berrios day

I skipped the day slate, pretty much just playing the main at this point in the season. UGH at that stack exploding like that though the one time I'm not all in.


I thought maybe I put something together after checking box's the last couple days.


Wed I had my best pitching (relative to the field) in a week+, hit on many of my core players, and other than a couple shares of min priced Preston Tucker I completely avoided the rainout. Really thought maybe I nailed an outlier, instead I made $100 or so with a nice profit in sats (maybe another $200).


Tonight I went around 80/20 Duffy/Kluber and had several Cle stacks, sweet! except everyone had a lot of Cle and better guys around them than me. I went from thinking maybe big night to seeing I turned 100 squeeze entries ($300) into $70 and $75 in sats into zip, lol.










Days 130-131

Buyins $875, Payout $817, -$58

Season +$27,385


I had planned on going 100% Stras tomorrow, but there's a couple cheaper guys that are going to be hard to pass on.
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08-12-2016 , 01:01 PM
Thoughts on Carrasco? He's 6.9k on dk which is way too low even tho the Angels dont strike out a lot seems like an ideal SP2. Bundy is in a similar situation at the giants but not sure i want to go there. I like Chris Archer always too cause his floor is solid. Feel like Gray is gonna be popular in GPP too.
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08-12-2016 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyTops5
Thoughts on Carrasco? He's 6.9k on dk which is way too low even tho the Angels dont strike out a lot seems like an ideal SP2. Bundy is in a similar situation at the giants but not sure i want to go there. I like Chris Archer always too cause his floor is solid. Feel like Gray is gonna be popular in GPP too.

Yeah that seems way too low, he's 3rd on FD




Agreed that he's the perfect guy to pair with Stras. I like Bundy too, I would imagine he and Carrasco really open up the cap for GPP. Weather looks to be a real pita tonight
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08-12-2016 , 02:43 PM
More on the weather- So on a weird day like today with rain forecast from Dallas to Boston it's all a balancing act. I start building lineups in about 30 minutes and as of now I've got Bos/Cle/Tex as too risky, and that includes hitters. Min and both NY games are more iffy, no pitchers as of now and if the forecasts get much worse I'll nix hitters as well. I'll be monitoring these all afternoon and making changes on the fly. As anyone who follows this stuff knows, these forecasts can and will change from 1 minute to the next (and often back again, I've seen 90% for the entire game turn into 20% and back to 90% again in an hour or 2, hard to work around that!)

I wont let this stop me from throwing Stras




but I will have my eye on it
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08-12-2016 , 03:56 PM
Hey man great thread followed it pretty much from the beginning hopefully everything thing turns around for you're mlb season. Was just woundering what you do for the rest for the mlb/start of the nfl .do you just wait till mlb is over the start playing nfl

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using 2+2 Forums
Jimmyrad's 2016 DFS thread Quote
08-12-2016 , 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by leafsfan55
Hey man great thread followed it pretty much from the beginning hopefully everything thing turns around for you're mlb season. Was just woundering what you do for the rest for the mlb/start of the nfl .do you just wait till mlb is over the start playing nfl

Thanks. Once football starts it takes priority and baseball goes on the back burner. I'll still play, esp Tue and Fri, but that might be about it.
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08-12-2016 , 09:36 PM
Did you play NCAA Football last year too or no
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