So after a nice day Thur I've had 6 losers in a row. I'm playing baby stakes and just spinning my wheels until football. A bink would be nice before this god awful ****ing summer ends.

Here's mon-tue-wed:

























Days 114-116

Buyins $1943, Payouts $971, -$972

Season +$30,500

read through this whole thing, your dedication is impressive. GL Man.. May you destroy the NFL.

Yeah Pads were money yesterday, 4-6 was nice for me. Went Bum/Conely in h2h that worked out well

I've never played on FD, but it seems like their pricing is a lot looser compared to DK from what i see.

I would have agreed in the past, but I was really surprised by how soft it was the other day (and that's the only time I've even looked at DK in over a year). For the most part FD's pricing has been much tighter this year than in the past, while my one slate sample looking at DK seemed softer. When I saw Bum was 13.2 I figured I'd have to dig the bottom of the barrel to fit another ace, turned out to be pretty easy, even fit in Miggy and Posey with no true punts. I remember playing absolute bum utility guys to fit in the pitching I want on DK many times.


Nice call on Conley, pretty solid #2 vs Philly.

Had a decent night Fri with a small profit and put the right lu's in sats for a change winning lots of seats. Of course Thur was bad and today was just awful. No idea how any of these mfers got points tonight, but they did. My best out of 150 lineups was around 160, lol. Here's the last 3 days:

























Days 117-119

Buyins $1945, Payout $1216, -$729

Season +$29,771


In other news I was pleasantly surprised to see that even after this terrible week no matter how I do on the 31st I'm gonna close out July a (small) winner. I mean were talking like +1900 as of now, so I probably shouldn't buy a boat or anything but after the way the end of May and all of June went it's not nothing.


Other notes-

I started playing low stakes 100 mans and quint's today. Other than the BIG multi-entry stuff (second screen shot from the bottom) I wont be tracking results in this thread because like with sats I'm not taking a shot of every $2 single entry game I play. Were talking hundreds a week.


I've been thinking more and more about football in general and bankroll strategies in particular lately. I'll make a post on it after I've thought it through more and have some time. I'm open to suggestions, specifically game types.


Also considering making a deposit on DK so I have more options.

They're heeeeere




Here's my first crack done in about 2 minutes





I'm excite! and happy to see the size of these GPP's.



also, I had planned on playing today but hated the weather forecast. The first couple lineups I built leaving out all the rain games were terrible so I just cancelled everything and went back to bed, felt good man!

Day 120

Did Not Play

How do they have a Sunday million without giving away a million lol

They are giving away 2 million?

Not to first

They are still giving away 2 million. The Sunday million on Stars doesnt pay out 1 million to first, it's still the Sunday million.

But draftkings does and that's their competitor

dk also has a stupidly steep payout structure and they call it the "millionaire maker" not the "million"

They give away more than a million, on a sunday thus the name sunday million. Really not difficult to understand.

I understand why they say it but it's not the same

Yeah, I refuse to play any game with their MM type structure, and that's a lot of different games. If 10th out of a 100K+ field GPP pays 1% of 1st, it might be a lotto.

Nothing wrong with admitting you're wrong sometimes. It's normal. Can't always be right.

Why are you taking over this mans thread to troll me?

I am so obviously not trolling. My god you're sad. So stubborn over something so incredibly simple to understand.

You sir are a moron and will not derail this thread anymore . Go troll someone else

You definitely proved me wrong there. Just remember, Sunday million doesn't actually mean 1 million to first.

Hey man just wondering how often/if ever you look at the home plate umpires. I am a big baseball fan and splash around the DFS streets occasionally. Curious because I am an Astros fan and watch most of their games. Tonight the home plate umpire was giving a consistent 2-3 inches off the outside corner and it really benefited Stroman and Fister. They combined 13 innings, 1 earned, and 21 strikeouts. Would have been a pretty deadly combo on DK. Obviously LOL sample, but it seems like it could potentially add some value to guys that get a more generous umpire. Maybe something to keep an eye on. Although now that the umps get detailed reports of their games this guy will know that he was 2-3 inches off and possibly adjust, which is why it would be a good thing to watch over time. Just throwing ideas out there, let me know what you think.

Excellent question!

Short answer- I haven't incorporated umpires in my play or really even looked into it.

Longer answer- I have thought about looking into it going back to last year. So much so that I posted this question in the "The Bat" thread on RG (The Bat is a projection model for sale at RG)




That was my nice way of saying I'm not interested in what your model thinks hitter X will do vs pitcher Y in Z park, but I might be willing to pay for this if I can separate out the stuff I want (umpires and weather). Turns out you can't btw.

and that's about the extent of my research on the subject. Good topic for an off season project this winter. This would have been huge in the 90's btw, before ump grading they really called a game how they wanted to call a game. I'm guessing it's a lot less drastic now, and probably a bit noisy, thus my lack of urgency. OTOH I'll take any sliver of edge I can get, so yeah, I need to at least look into it.



Tonight was brutal. Worst hitting ever other than a few shares of Kepler in otherwise bad Twin stacks (no Mauer). Anyway hitting was so bad tonight Kepler's 3 bombs alone were enough to cash in most spots, saving me from a possible zero.






Day 121

Buyins $700, Payout $208, -$492

Season +$29,279


So the Rally was 60K tonight and again tomorrow, which is about what I expected it to be all season. No idea why they waited until Aug to make it a decent GPP again.


I'm really on the fence about reupping at DK for NFL. On the one hand it should help smooth out variance as I can get my volume at slightly lower stakes spread over more entries, plus the difference in rules/pricing allowing a wider range of players.

On the other hand I hate the MM and MM type super top heavy GPP's that DK is so fond of. That's a big reason I left the site over a year ago and afaict it's only gotten worse. Also, playing 1 site allows me to focus in 100% on that set of pricing and rules. No big deal for the spreadsheet/algo guys, but I'm doing everything by hand from out of my head, so less clutter is more, a lot more.

Thoughts on today's slate? Pretty interesting pitcehers

You didn't have any Kepler / Duffy combos last night ?

Lots of nice options. I haven't started building lu's yet so I'm not sure how abundant the value hitting is but I think I'll have shares spread around something like this:

Carrasco 30%
Bum 10%
Fernandez 10%
deGrom 10%
Tanaka 10%
Price 10%
Davies 10% (maybe more)
Shoe 10%


Yu's a decent gamble but I just don't throw guys @Bal

If hitting looks easy I might funnel a couple points up to Bum/Fern.

I like Ray but really no need to get cute tonight



Wes- I was hoping I did but I didn't use much Duffy and didn't see the 2 of them on any of my higher scoring teams, so no.