Baluga theorem FTW

Great thread!

Ran pretty bad tonight (-700). Folded j9 on qk10x and guy showed me aj so that felt good even though I lost 400 that hand.

Regular update tomorrow

nice one man, congratz!

EZ Game
Nice to be on the good side of variance. Played 2 sessions on Friday and Saturday (no baseball games = poker time) and I realized how much money I am missing by not playing on the weekends. Jose Canseco just chillin at foxwoods dropping millions, games are so good on the weekends.

Since I always post hands where I make sick hero calls or bluffs or whatever here is a hand I grossly misplayed that bothered me to the point of leaving (at 1am and game starting to die a bit, + me getting tired + tilt from this BS hand = time to leave)

Villian is an older female regular probably in her 50s who is your typical casino poker woman. The 50 year old lady at your casino that talks too much, this is her.

We are like 1400 effective at 2/5.

Fish limps, she limps, I raise CO to 30. with AJ

Fish folds and dealer pushes me the pot, then he notices lady didnt fold, I give the pot back and she reraises to 80.

I elect to call preflop.
1. Most importantly I have position.
2. She views me as an aggro internetty type and want to trap me.

Flop comes 8 9x 10 (160)
She bets 105.

Hmm. So she has an overpair here like 100% of the time, but the fact that it was a bit later into my session made me think that maybe she would fire once with AK and give up.

Oftentimes these players overplay JJ and AK in this way because they are scared of the difficulty of the postflop playability of these hands. But anything past a cbet is always, always AA/KK. Always.

Turn is an offsuit 10.
She checks to me.

Given my image, stack sizes and the fact I have a ton of outs I don't want to value own myself.

The thing that people don't realize in these situations is that betting with 30%ish equity hands only becomes a good play if there is fold equity. If you are betting this hand against a station that will never fold, you are in essence, doing their valuebetting for them.

My logic here is that, if she has AK, I can check this back, eval river and see if I can bluff her off it. If she has AA/KK/QQ/JJ, she is neverrrrrrrrrr folding. Amateur players of this nature get engaged to overpairs and don't let go, no matter what.

River is the 6

89x10106

Hmm.

Interesting.

Here is where I lit money on fire-

This is a pretty bad card for her range, she checks to me. To bet or not to bet? Ace Jack high is not winning this pot at showdown.

the pot is over 400$ now. What hands does she fold? AK, thats about it. All the other combos of overpairs are going to call here. I did not think like this in-game, this is my post-hand analysis.

I bet 175$.

This lady doesn't know how much is in the pot because shes clueless and limp reraised me with aces.

I can accomplish the same thing with a 120$ bet (which is still incorrect imo, check and giveup is the best play by far, we saw all 5 and bricked out, give up).

Classic example of a fish playing their hand horrendously, but I took a marginally +ev spot for me and made it clearly -ev with my poor postflop play.

Stacks on Stacks on Stacks


Aside from that hand I described I thought I played good in my 2 days at Foxwoods. Sucks that I drove up Friday, drove back Friday night, drove up Saturday morning, then drove back Saturday night.

Oh yeah and I woke up sunday morning and went and coached for 6 hours. Dedication.

That stack is built from my AA>KK aipf for like a 800$ pot, and I owned some asian guy with KQ on Q5222. That accounted for like 800$ in profit, don't remember any other big ones.

Raised KQ in the BB after like 6 limpers and he called, I cbet flop checked turn and bombed river. He put me on AK ldo. I was betting river even if it didn't improve me, I just think he folds to my double barrel so checking back induces light river calls from him.

Will maybe go back tommorow as I'm off from baseball but I'm up pretty late and hate the drive now. I need to make friends at Foxwoods that I can split rooms with.

gg

Closing in on 20k profit too. At 19.3 now.

How long is your car ride to the casinos? Right now i live 2 hours away! eek, let me know.

1hr to mohegan sun

1.15 to foxwoods

very inspirational thread, hoping to experience similar success soon. Maybe we will cross paths at mohegan/foxwoods

gl

this is a fun thread to follow - i've been going to fw/ms for about 6-8 months now trying the same grind you are - 1/2 and 2/5 with success. I play tournaments too though those are probably less and less +EV now that I'm improving at cash games. It feels like there's more money to be made there.

we've probably played against each other. i have red hair and usually wear a purple hoodie. ~25

Hmm. Can't think of anyone with red hair off the top of my head but if your a 2/5 player at either place we have to of crossed paths before.

Sweating money I invested in WSOP people is so much fun. This is the closest I will get to degening money these days.

All the guys I have bought pieces of up to this point have yet to cash in any event.

Lol.

Everything you touch cant turn to gold lol.

can you comment on how easy/hard it is to earn points with the mohegan player's card?

it says at 1600 pts u get free rooms mon-thurs so im wondering how long that would take

Assuming you don't play pit games at all...

The way Mohegan's system works is points that earned in a given, fixed, 6month period.

The current qualifying period is 04/03/2012 To 09/30/2012.

What this means is that points earned in this period will qualify you for a tier card. For example my current card is a Wolf Club card, that I earned last qualifying period, and it is valid now although I havent qualified this period (and won't, too much at Foxwoods.)

1600 points is Sagamore, one step above me, where you get the rooms.

You get 2 points at 1/2, 3 points at 2/5 (per hour).

Playing 2/5 it takes 533 hours in 6months. Which is 88 hours a month, or 22 hours a week.

Playing 1/2 it takes 800 hours, which is 133 hours a month or 33 hours a week.

Mohegan also does these 5pt an hour promotions or whatever for the poker room, the extra points do not count towards your tier card. You only earn the base of 2 and 3 at the respective level. You will have more points on your card to spend but only the base count towards your VIP status.

I qualified last period and my card is good this period. I will not qualify again this period so my Wolf status will be gone on 9/30.

I know a fair amount about Mohegans system and next to nothing about Foxwoods' new one. Do your own research (or ask me lol) as well as many of the sagamore 2/5 players have no idea what they are talking about as it pertains to the system at Mohegan

...and I everything I touch should turn to gold

Thanks a lot

not sure whether you would know this but which casino has more/better plo action

Foxwoods ainec for PLO and plo8

Just finding this thread rob fun read We may have already played together I've been going a bit more, but Still have to meet up with you sometime down at fw. Grats on sick may!

ill be playing/donating at FW next Wed-Th

Is there anywhere I can check on the specifics of Mohegan's system? I live within about 2 hrs driving range of Mohegan's in Pennsylvania and want to start making regular trips up there

http://www.mohegansun.com/playing/sa...b-rewards.html

The Mohegan Sun in PA could be run differently than the one in CT...there is thread on this site specific to the one in PA that would probably be helpful

Sorry. Misread your post, one is PA is probably run differently

Standard at This Point

Volume ftw. This was 2.7k in a 2/5 at foxwoods yesterday.

When I walked to the cage everyone was looking at me cause I'm balla'


I am just running really well in poker and life. Its pretty fun when I never get sucked out on when the chips are in the middle. I'm also making pretty ridiculous folds because people are so polarized live.

I would certainly estimate I've been running well over EV the last month and a half but I am also confident enough to say that my game has developed a lot. I play a lot more aggro now (which causes regs to make huge mistakes) and it is working great cause I'm running good.

The worrisome thing is that it is a much more high variance style and when you hit the wall your more prone to tilt/overextending yourself on bluffs. It's ok to give up some times.

20k
The second 10gs came a lot faster then the first, that's for sure.

The upward swing in the second half of that graph is so lol...

Here's my update graph that includes all hands played (1/2 as well). This is my overall.



Here is 2/5 only.


Last few sessions


Thoughts on Heater
I am not inclined to think that my long-term winrate is even 40$/hr. The sample size is much too small. 8bb/hr live is certainly more than possible but after rake/tips etc it is very difficult. If your going to play for a living you can't just be better then your opponents. You have to be significantly better then everyone.

This is part of the reason the breakeven/slight winner regs will never make as much as they could. They are content with their small breakeven/low variance style and don't take chances. It is a leak in itself, your limiting the amount of money you could make.

It is very easy to extract money from the unknown "tourist" types. The best players at the level are doing that, plus exploiting the regulars.

Most of my hours come on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, there aren't really drunk maniacs spewing off thousands on those days. Of course it happens, but every game I play in is full of people who think they are much better then they are. I know I say that a lot in this thread but it is just 100% true. Poker is like sex, everyone thinks they are great at it but in reality 95% of people are terrible.

I hope I am not coming off cocky, I am far from a great player but I just think everyone live is terrible. It also makes me lol when I see someone sitting with 200-300$ stacks and talking like they make millions.

There is this one young kid at the casino I play at who's actually a decent player (by live standards) (I'm a cocky prick), and I saw him sitting really short in a game the other day. I would never judge the guy if he was some rec player just killing time or he just enjoyed poker and played for fun. However, I have heard this guy (probably 25ish) talk to people about winrates and speak of how he plays "for a living" and "this is my only job". I also saw him call of 75$ out of a 250$ stack with 89 and bink trips, then leave the table after saying once again how he supports his family solely with poker.

It's laughable actually. It doesn't tilt me at all, nor do I correct his blatantly obvious mistakes, but surely anyone who knows anything about poker can deduce that a winning pro is:
1. Not going to shortstack a game.
I disagree with people thinking that short stacking can be more profitable live. If your adept enough to win with this strategy your smart enough to play deeper and increase your hourly. Also if you only brought x amount of money with you and don't have enough for a full rebuy it's time to quit (or bring more money, I bring 2k usually).
2.Not ever,ever,ever telling people your a pro
This is pretty self explanatory. Why on earth would you want people to know your good? It only serves to stroke your ego. Your giving away free information to people who are listening. Talking strategy at the table (which I absolutely hate, so so much) falls into this category as well. Ego-mania
3.Being an Unprofessional Professional
Drinking while playing/straddling or basically doing anything that is not directly increasing the amount of money in your roll falls into this category.

There is no situation is live poker where straddling is +EV. None. Your image does not benefit like you think it does. I have never straddled at 2/5 and never will, it might be fun, but your lighting money aflame. Of course this doesn't apply to the people who play for fun, it's fun for them and that's great, don't look down on people that keep the poker economy going.

Mini-rant over. I get really tilted by people who are terrible but tell everyone there great, if you haven't noticed by now.

Good read

There are some scenarios where short stacking is more profitable. On deuce plays limon was talking about it. During the wsop he shortstacks the uncapped 25/50 game and his hourly is higher than playing 5/10-10/20. I know its not exactly the scenario you were talking about but thought I should mention it.

2 immediate thoughts of when straddling is +EV: when you can convince your entire table to do it, or playing 3 handed.