Raising the river vs this opponent is suicide imo. Did you see we got counterfeit? I don't think he's even leading 9x much tbh.

Daily Update - Sunday 26/11

Hours Played: 8
Profit: $211

Again, another fairly frustrating day of being card dead. Wasn't tooooo bad today actually. We did get a little unlucky though I suppose, running AK into AA in a $550 pot and losing a flip KQ < 99 in a $650 pot. I do have one interesting hand, however...

BTN limps, hero $22 w/ JQo in SB, BB and BTN call.
Flop $66: J67hh
Hero $40, BB call, BTN fold.
Turn $146: Ao
Hero x, BB x.
River $146: Ko
Hero x, BB $125, hero ???

Glad that I was able to stick around and play a solid 8 hour session tonight. Definitely want to be clocking 8+ hour sessions as often as possible now that I've gotten back into the swing of things.

In other news, Bitcoin just hit US$9,250 which is awesome.

Probably going to take tomorrow off. Doubt the games will be very good being a Monday. I have a rest day gym wise too which will be nice. I might play actually since on Tuesday I'm teaching a girlie how to play poker. She has a work Christmas party that is casino royale themed and apparently I have to teach her how to win @ poker so will likely not play Tuesday. So I imagine I'll get up early tomorrow, go smash some breakky somewhere, come home and nap, then go play in the evening. Hoping to start to make a dent in this bit of a downswing sometime soon.

Easy fold. WP post. Would prefer just calling the SB also.

Keep getting that volume in!

I think with just the BTN in the hand, we can raise this. If the limp had come from EP or there were two players in the hand, then yeah just completing almost 100%. QJo is a deceptively weak hand.

Betting the turn is interesting. The Ax should only hit AhXh, AxJx, and A7. There shouldn't be any A-hi floats from the BB with BTN left to act. We could get value from the flush draws and maybe a weaker Jx by betting $70-$75. By betting this amount, we can get to cheap showdowns too as players just don't bluff river often enough when someone double barrels.

River is kind of tough. Think we just fold. The two obvious draws miss, but we have third pair. Also the two overcards are the ones most likely to hit heart draws. I could see a case for calling though given the sizing. It's probably just slightly -EV.

Yeah, I'm not convinced it's a snapfold either. I don't think 1 pair bets this size OTR and I think his Ax two pair bet turn. So I feel he has to have KJ or a bluff. But then again bluffs mightn't bet this size, idk.

Shove?

If villain isn't leading 9x then yeah, raising is suicide. Aware that the board paired. Can't fold here except for extreme cases though imo. Prefer betting turn and trying to check down river.

This is a troll ye?

Yeh I think X or bet turn are both okay. I prefer to X tho vs this guy who will have a ton of slowplays.

Daily Update - Mon 27/11

Hours Played: 9.4
Profit: -$262

Surprisingly good volume today. Felt like I was only there 7 or so hours but I guess time flies when you're having fun with the other regs and mucking around. Unfortunately, I ran fairly terrible overall today. Again, super annoying day overall being up $700 very quickly and then finishing down nearly $300...

H1:
3 limps, folds to her in SB who makes it $35 w/ AJss (@ a 5/5 table), UTG limper calls.
Flop: K72r
Hero cbets 25, UTG calls.
Turn: 4ss
Hero cbets $65, UTG tank calls.
River: To
Hero shoves for ~$200, UTG folds.

H2:
UTG opens to $20, UTG+1 calls, hero calls QJo in SB, BB folds.
Flop: QT6r
x, x, UTG+1 bets $45, hero calls, fold.
Turn: 4cc
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $90, hero calls.
River: 2o
Hero xc $120 and MHIG vs 99.

H3:
Hero opens $25 w/ AA, two callers IP
Flop: TJ2ss
Hero cbets $65, one caller
Turn: 2sscc
Hero bets $130, villain (OMC) sigh shoves for $290, we call. Obv OMC sigh shoving is the nuts nad he has JJ lol gg.

H4:
Hero gets AK in pre vs AA $200 deep and rivers a straight to win! Yeehaa!

H5:
Hero opens QTdd UTG $25, BB spastic calls.
Flop: 223dd
Hero cbets 25, call.
Turn: 8o
Hero cbets $65, call.
River: 4ddd
Hero cbets $125, villain raises $250, hero calls. We lose to A5dd vs the biggest muppet I've played against all week. -_-

Hand 5 and Hand 3, while perfectly standard, are the two hands that really crippled me this session.

Think I played fairly well again today, unfortunate results-wise but that's whatever, main thing is we played decently.

Day off tomorrow. I'm teaching a Kenyan girl how to play poker @ my apartment. Should be interesting.

H3, pretty standard spot to call w/AA and stack/pot sizes but I wanted to get your thoughts on:

1. OMC
2. Sigh
3.Shoves
4. On a sscc board

Is this ever a non-nutted hand or does the times he has KK/Qq.lol AJ make the call a no-brainer?

Generally an OMC sigh shove is possibly the strongest move anyone can make in poker. I do think it's possible he occasionally shows TJs or QQ or AJ sometimes tho. When the 2 pairs with the two flush draws, never ever folding AA obv. Just annoying because he sighs. :')

One of those spots imo you just have to torch that money. If it was any different board, different stack depth etc, I'd want to be thinking muuuuch longer about it.

Co-incidentally, I saw this today.

Co-incidentally, I saw this today.



Start at 6:19

I did see this vid when it first got posted actually. Insanely good fold but in all honesty, you have to be extremely careful doing this. I folded the best hand twice last night. 62o on AK66ccss because an OMC raised last to act in a MW pot. Turns out he had cheese and was just mucking around. I think in general going for highly XPLO spots like folding KK pre is definitely +EV even if we get it wrong occasionally.

Daily Update - Wed 29/11

Hours Played: 7.3
Profit: $74

An extremely boring session tonight. Extremely card dead and didn't make any hands on the few occasions I did go post flop. Got AA in pre vs 88 and lost (literally lost my last 3 AA allins to 88 which is pre spooky).

Was still a good night though because there was a couple fun regs who I'm mates with and we ended up just talking **** the whole night. Which really makes the time pass by quickly.

Also, BTC price is going through the roof atm. I woke up this morning and it was juuust about to hit 10k USD. It just hit 11.5k USD this evening. **** is crazy.

Brunch with mum and sister tomorrow then homegame at 6. Keen to finish off the week strong.

That KK fold is a pretty bad example imo, and yes he did have it right, and maybe he knows something about the guy the viewers do not, but that same guy (Ken), jammed 500bb with AKo face a Cold 4B after 3beting BTNvsEP. So I would assume his range to 5b jam 100bb to be wide enough for KK to never be a fold. Then again, maybe he had a stone cold soul live read.. who knows

Yeah, it was a 25/50/100 game and I'm pre sure they were about 100bb deep. Still not sure whether folding the KK at that stack depth is a good play at all.

Daily Update - Thurs 30/11

Hours Played: 7.9
Profit: -$560

Another extreeeeeemely frustrating session today. We had a drug dealer rock up and start punting off cash at the 2/3 homegame today. The game was extremely juicy and yet I was unable to win any money. I want to make sure most of this was just down to variance and so I'm going to review a bunch of hands. Let's jump straight in.

Hand 1

One limper, SB completes, Hero $23 w/ TT, one caller.
Flop: 589r
Hero cbets $35, call
Turn: Acc
Hero check/calls $65
River: Qo
Check, check, MHIG vs 33.
Notes: This is a spot I hate on the turn. I expect most villains to bet river a lot and I'm going to have to fold 100% of the time. Yeah villain prob doesn't have a ton of Ax but for some reason I feel like we're torching money on the turn by calling when we're always folding river?
Happy With

Hand 2

UTG limps, hero in HJ $25 w/ KJo, BTN cold calls, UTG calls.
Flop: K89dd
UTG checks, Hero cbets $40, BTN calls, UTG calls. (We meant to make it $45 but missclicked).
Turn: 5ddhh
UTG checks, hero checks, BTN bets $100, UTG folds, hero calls
River: 6o
Check, check, we lose to KQs.
Notes: I think the iso is fine. We have good fold equity in this spot and I think this iso is very profitable. Flop I think we can check if rainbow but given there's a fd we have to bet. Turn once we get called twice, decent chance we're behind but then again most of villains' ranges are flush/straight draws or ppd/Kx type hands. I like then check though. But again it feels like we're going to be check/calling turn and check/folding rivers almost always? Or do we just have to station rivers that are bricks? I am fairly happy with how I played this hand.
Happy With

Hand 3

EP opens $15, hero CC 7d7c in SB, BB calls.
Flop: 668dd
Hero checks, BB checks, EP bets $25, hero calls, BB folds.
Turn: 5ddd
Hero check/calls a $45 bet.
River: Tdddd
Hero check/folds to a $89 bet.
Notes: Very pleased with the disciplined fold in this one. Was an excellent example of slowing things down in real time and really thinking through what hands he could have here. Once he bets turn IMO his range is mostly flushes, overpairs with a diamond, or hands like AdKx, all of which beat me on the river. He also has 55 and TT and I can't really think of any hands I can beat.
Happy With

Hand 4

Hero (e800) opens red QQ UTG to $20, HJ & BTN call.
Flop: Q89cc
Hero cbets $40, HJ folds, BTN calls.
Turn: Ko
Hero checks, BTN bets $100, hero calls.
River: 5o
Check, check, MHIG vs AJcc.
Notes: Feel like I left a bunch of money on the table in this hand? Realistically, I'm probably only going to get 2 streets of value vs his actual hand though. He's a good player and knows bluffing river here would be pretty bad. I checked turn for pot control since it completes some draws and I can also get him to bluff with draws - I don't really want to bet and get raised at this stack depth either. Also is nice to protect my checking range vs this player who I'm going to want to be a bit more balanced against.
Happy With

Hand 5 - PF Coolers

May as well use this slot to discuss pre-flop coolers briefly. I got JJ in pre vs KK at $159 effective stack. We run it 3 times and I lose all 3. I also got AA in pre vs KK at $500 effective and won 2/3 times. Essentially, I lost two flips here - in the first hand it's a coinflip as to whether I win 1/3 runs. In the second hand he wins the flip to win 1/3 of the pot. So ran a little bit bad but overall ofc very happy to get AA in pre vs KK any day of the week.

Hand 6

Hero opens JsJx UTG $22, SB ($300) makes it $55, hero calls.
Flop: 852ss
SB checks, hero bets $60, SB jams $240ish, hero calls and we chop JJ vs JJ.
Notes: Think this one was missplayed tbh. I expect his 3bet range here to be fairly tight overall, JJ+/AK. I think when he jams we should simply be folding because A) we have only 15% equity vs JJ+/AsKs. I asked him if he ever has TT here and he said no way. So basically we were extremely lucky to run into the nut bottom of his range here. As gross as it is, I think we just have to bet/fold the flop.
UNHAPPY With

Hand 7

3 limpers, hero $30 w/ AKo in BB, EP limper calls.
Flop $70: 944r
Hero checks, EP bets $40, hero calls.
Turn $150: 5o
Hero checks, EP bets $65, hero calls.
River $280: 2o
Hero checks, EP bets $165, hero calls & MHIG vs TJ.
Notes: Very happy with this one. Villain reps close to nothing (55 maybe 99) and I know he knows I'll have AK here a bunch. What he doesn't realise is that his limp/calling range is very small/medium PP heavy. He certainly doesn't bet 3 streets like this with 66-88 or 9x since I can have TT/JJ fairly easily. So when he bluffs river, I think he should pick a very small size, maybe $85 if he wants me to ever consider folding ace high.
Happy With

Hand 8

BTN straddles to $5, SB re-straddles to $10, hero in BB opens KQo $35, MP shoves for $62, BTN...

(BTN is our special guest whale for the night. A coke dealer who punts off money like it's no thang. He'll definitely have ATC in this spot, loves to gamble, and bluffs excessively postflop)

BTN calls the $62, hero calls as well.
Flop $195: K45cc
BTN checks out of turn and looks very disinterested in the hand, hero decides to check for pot control/deception vs this spazzy villain @ about 850-900 deep.
Turn $195: 6o
Hero bets $85, villain raises to $300, hero calls.
River $795: 6o
Hero checks, villain bets $200, hero calls and BTN scoops w/ 73o.
Notes: Obviously it's great that villain decided to call $62 pre with 73o but I think we should probably bet flop vs this guy. At the time I kind of hate the idea of being $800-$1000 deep and cbetting flop with this hand because it basically means I have to go with it. This guy will float a bunch and bluff a lot. So there is merit to disguising the strength of our hand. But I think betting flop for value is just way better vs this spazz. Even though he basically checked before I had acted - so I don't really mind betting or checking actually. It's probably results oriented to say checking was bad. Obviously once we bet turn we have to call vs this guy I'm pretty sure, river is ofc a good runout and even though he bets really small, I've seen him downbet with air/raggy hands in spots like this before. Very good river for us, obv river is played fine. Overall I'm probably unhappy with this hand but don't think I can beat myself up for it too much - the guy did get insanely lucky.
UNHAPPY With

Hand 9

Limp, hero $25 in CO w/ Q8hh (6 handed), BTN calls, limper calls.
Flop $80: AQJr
Check, hero cbets $35, BTN calls, limper folds.
Turn $150: Tss
Hero bets $85, BTN calls.
River $320: 2sss
Hero checks, villain checks, we lose to AJ.
Notes: Okay, hand looks super botched so let's try figure this one out. Pre is questionable for sure. I don't hate it though - it's 6 handed and I'm CO so I'm going to want to be iso'ing pretty wide here. I think I have fairly good fold equity vs this villain and obv hand is playable post with position. Flop, I could check but BTN is very stab happy - he's down $2k and tries to steal tons of pots. I don't really want to xc 2nd pair here OOP vs this guy so I decide on the small cbet, to get him to fold out underpairs and air that he could potentially bluff with. We'd also bet small here with 16 combos of the nuts and maybe like top set so I don't think the small sizing is necessarily bad/weak. Once BTN calls and we get this turn, I struggle to see a lot of Kx in his range. I expect him to raise KT on the flop fairly often, we block KQ, he 3bets AK pre, so really his only Kx is KJ. I obviously have way more Kx than he does so decide to barrel. Think this is fine. Once he calls however, I'm unsure whether to fire river. He could have peeled with some flush draws which got there and ofc he'll have a fairly dense amount of Kx after calling turn. I decide to take the low variance option and just give up, which I think is fine come river - although if we get to river with this particular hand, we probably should be bluffing. If we bet though and get snapped off by Kx or shoved on by a flush, it just seems like the most horribly played hand in the history of the world. Up until the river, I think the hand is mostly played fine actually - pre I'm okay with, flop's a little ambitious but don't mind it, think our logic on turn is very good too.
Indifferent To?

=========================

Overall, not a terrible session. Pretty unlucky to lose that $1200 pot to 73o in a bloated pot vs the biggest spastic in Brisbane. Very frustrating because of that. But otherwise, think we played fairly well overall.

So currently on a bit of a downer... It's official. Down just a bit over $4k from my peak which was day 1 of Sydney trip a few weeks back. So 8 buyins odd which is currently my biggest downswing yet!

Results: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AkK4doh8PHLEgk6pBpFJrgcokPKM

Of course, this is a little bit demoralising, I will admit. Especially because it seems a lot bigger - 8BI is just the cash downswing. I also recently dusted off $3-3.5k from the MTTs in Sydney as well, so it feels like I'm simply losing a lot of money overall atm. All part of the game though I suppose!

Forthcoming Week - Fri 1/12 - Thur 7/12

So something I like to do when on a downswing, and this is what I did last time I went on a small downer, is go back to basics, play reeeeeeal exploitative, boring, ABC poker vs spastics at the casino. So I'm going to self-ban myself from homegames this week where the meta is a little bit different and just go get some consistent grinding in at the casino.

Friday - 8+ hours casino
Saturday - Partying
Sunday - 8+ hours casino
Monday - Day off
Tuesday - 8+ hours casino
Wednesday - 8+ hours casino
Thursday - 8+ hours casino

The reason I want to JUST play casino this week is because I think at times I struggle adjusting to the meta of casino vs EMP homegame - they are verrry different games with verrry different opponents. And I think if I play all my volume in the same environment for a bit, I'll be playing extremely good poker and adjusting extremely well because I'll be used to the pace.

Really hoping I'm able to post a winning week this week. But if the downer continues, then so it shall - but I want it to be because of variance and not bad play or suboptimal play. Will be very happy if I can squeeze out 40 hours of my A-game. And whatever happens happens, if that means we go deeper down the rabbit hole, than so be it!

A lot of the hands here look good, the level of detail put in analysis is superb as well.

Only hand I have a qualm with is the QQ hand. Turn check call I think is definitely worst option. Villain should really never have J10 here, given your 150bb deep I think he will fastplay all combos. You also unblock all his bet/calling range (FD's, pair+gutter, 2p+) so c/r looks good or would bomb turn myself

QQ hand if you're going to check, I prefer a check-raise and then bet river

I think it's very possible he has 16 combos of TJ that just flat the flop but yeah, I guess I probably have too much focus on pot controlling at these stack depths and just need to practice ramming money into the pot with really big hands.

Do you ever think about the people that might read this? I think if I were you I'd describe players as a 'rec' or whatever instead of "coke dealing spastic". You just don't want it to ever catch up with you. Obviously its unlikely this guy is gonna be reading 2+2 but someone might mention it or whatever and then its unlikely he'll ever go back to the home game.

Meh, not really fussed tbh

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I looked at your spreadsheet and your ~$4000 downswing is actually more like 12.5 buy ins (not 8) because a good deal of that is at 2/3. Im counting 100BBs as a buy in.

I guess, technically. I still buyin for $500 at the 2/3 games and they play almost identical to my 2/5 game. So I just consider all the games I play ATM as 2/5.