Yeah I also folded the JJ. I don't usually muck about raising paired flops and I didn't think that one through. It was simply a function of me not winning a single pot all night and both of these guys looking weak af that lead me to throw the chips away. Pretty bad.

Interesting. I had a feeling that might begin to happen down the line. I'm really good with maintaining the diet and exercise stuff so hopefully it's not too difficult to keep the routine going 12 months from now.

Daily Review - Monday 02/10

Hours Played: 6.2
Profit: -$1000

Note: Got fairly pumped today in the 1/2PLO/2/5NLH rotation. Originally started as two orbits of holdem and then 1 of PLO, but descended into 1 of each about half way through.

Couple spots...

Hero has A5AT, flop is KJ8 hero cbets or whatever, turn comes 9, villain leads $300 into a pot of $400.

Equity-wise, I only have 27.5% here. This is a bit lower than I suspected but makes sense considering villain will block one of my outs.

To call profitably, we need 30% equity. I had about $200 behind at this point. I don't think there's any point in shoving turn into the likely nuts. If I make my hand, I can donk shove and get called maybe 75% of the time? Which means I have another $150 in equity. So if we call turn and make our hand and get paid off on the river 75% of the time, we only need 26% equity on the turn, which we have. So I don't hate the call.

It's kind of a high variance approach though and we can just fold instead. But seems such a pity to fold so much equity when we've been losing all session.

The last hand I played was a holdem, it's literally the last hand of the night, it's 4 handed, dead SB, BTN opens $25, hero calls QJ in BB.

Flop $50: A9Tdd
x, villain bets $25, hero raises to $80, call
Turn $210: Addcc
Really bad card for us obv. I have about $475 behind at this point. I check. Villain bets $200. Woof. Such a gross spot vs that size. I feel like I fold the absolute world, OESD + FD, and yet on this turn we actually only have 21% equity. This was kind of shocking to me because at the time I thought I'd have closer to 30-35% easily vs a range of Ax. But vs A2s-AKs and A9o+, we actually only have 21.8% equity. Obv his range is wider than that but w/e.

Like assuming he doesn't fill up on the river, I have 15 outs right? That's 30% equity + my river donk jam equity if I call and bink... To call the turn profitably we need 33% equity excluding our implied odds. But apparently we have no where near 30% equity...

Anyway, I call. River is an offsuit king giving me a straight. I donk jam the rest in and he snaps with AK. Unlucky I guess. But not a good call OTT.

How else can we play this hand though realistically? Bet/calling turn seems awful. We can't shove 2x pot OTT... Bet folding is obv out of the question. Checking turn is def best imo but check folding just seems soooooooooooo weak when we have such a massive draw, 4 handed, on the last hand of the night vs a bit of a spot. What do you do?

Bit of a yucky run the last few sessions. Tomorrow is a full day off and back at it again on Wednesday!

Results: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...7C8876B842!334

Re the PLO hand, we get paid off on Qx rivers. But yeah, in general flatting to see a river is much more +EV than jamming. Folding is definitely the low variant route, but sometimes calling to just show that you're willing to "gamble" can be more +EV than the low variant route.

The Hold em hand, I think our equity is so low because we could already be drawing dead or some of our outs are tainted. His most likely hand OTT is AK, because we have QJ and T9 are out there. The next lowest kicker, the 8, is somewhat likely. Just keep your head in the game, it pulls through eventually!

Yeah agree, so xf turn in H2???

I would mostly just fold the QJs hand from the BB especially with it being the last hand of the night. If I called, I would bet the flop looking to shove over a raise.

Turn check is really bad. V should open much wider otb, and flat the cr much wider than just lol AK. He also would probably 3b flop with 99, TT, AA, A9, AT. Most likely would flat with 9T waiting for a safe turn... and would never turn it into a bluff when checked to (even though he should).... meaning he usually only has Ax and diamonds.

Your flop cr range is probably ridiculously tight... and you probably wouldn't ever check a FH or even good trips on the turn... so you only have diamonds/ monster draws. Whether villain knows that or not is irrelevant considering how wet the board is, he's always going to bomb it with a perceived good hand. You owned yourself.

You should always be betting the turn and never expect V to raise (again he would never raise with less than a FH, yet he never does have a FH in this spot)... in less words you get to choose your price and realize your equity.

also i would play as much as humanly possible on ppoker with your live poker friends. You're able to play 3x as many hands against live players... its a no brainer.

Obv we can't fold it pre. Never donking the flop either so this doesn't help me much.

Not sure how the turn check is really bad when it's obviously the worst card in the deck and extremely good for his range. With SPR of 2, none of the options look appealing OTT. If I bet the turn, what size? If I bet 2/3 pot and miss, I can't really shove river.

JJ hand from earlier is an easy fold.

the QJ is tough, I would have played it the same way actually, not sure if correct though tbh

Yeah, just annoying really. Kept getting the worst turn in the deck all session. Doesn't help in PLO!

PLO is a whole 'nother beast. Seems worth learning for the future but the 'larger' variance scares me away every time I begin to try....

Yeah, I'd definitely recommend it if you can roll yourself for the swings. Or find a decent 1/2 or sth.

Check fold turn in QJ hand is the play especially against that sizing. As played it's fine upto that point

It's so sad though :')

QJdd hand I think its better to bet $70 1/3rd pot instead of chk/call on turn.

Its good theoretically and in practicality bc you need to have bluffs still when you bet (which you prolly dont have when you check this hand). and you get to set the price to see the river. not at the mercy of needing to call whatever size he picks

edit: Villain can forsure have hands other then Ax and with it being the last hand of the night you do have some amount of fold equity imo

folding turn in qj hand is fine, especially when trying to take the low variance option. i like the play on the flop, it's just the turn is a pretty bad card.

Betting small on the turn is probably an okay option but we're going to get raised a lot and then be in the same tough spot.

its ok to bet/fold. you will have plenty of strong hands to continue with

Seems a right pity to do that and deny ourselves any chance of equity realisation. Turn we usually have a very profitable xc, hard to expect he'll bet pot.

Anyways, tonight I've been invited to a 1/2PLO. Was originally going to have the evening off but the lineup is looking quite decent. Ik I reeally shouldn't be playing PLO during such an idle stretch results wise but I definitely feel like it would be +EV to play in this game. I'd be buying in for $200 max so I can control variance fairly well. Will have a think about it but leaning very much towards getting it in.

Looking at it, I do think xf turn is best. It sounds and feels gross, but we don't know what outs are tainted, we could be drawing dead, and on the flushing cards it's very likely V won't pay us off. We need some implied odds and I just don't think we're getting them.

If you're looking into learning PLO, I highly recommend The Big Play Strategy by Jeff Hwang. It's a great intro to PLO with all of the essentials IE starting hand structures, post-flop betting, naked A bluffing, etc. It's not an advanced book though, so you'll only learn the basics (which IMO is enough to make you a 10bb/hr winner live).

Yeah j think it's the grossest xf on the turn but one we need to make regardless.

I've a fairly good understanding of PLO theory, have watched a ton of hours of various training content. Nothing can prepare you though for the game im in currently which is 3 players AI every hand minimum, spazzing out everywhere.

Did you not read what I wrote or did you just not understand? Your range on the turn is probably like 30 fullhouse combos in relation to your MAYBE 4 semi bluff combos. The fact that villain is strong but never nutted in this spot (he's never not 3b flop with a very strong hand) and that your immediate holding has a ton of equity vs that range means c/f is simply awful.

Your assumption that you were unlucky in that he chose a big sizing is wrong. He's choosing that sizing EVERY SINGLE TIME with a strong, yet very vulnerable hand on an extremely wet board. If you bet around $125 you're saving yourself at least $40 on average and you get to charge the weakest parts of his range that would check back the turn. Not only that, you would also get paid off when the diamond hits (highly unlikely villain pays you off on the river when you c/c turn... your hand is exactly diamonds to even the most unaware player).

playing super tight, abc, and auto piloting all these spots is +EV, a money maker no doubt... but it won't give you the returns you're expecting to make. If you want NL to be your game, you need to stop the autopilot and start doing everything in your power to manipulate your opponents ranges the way you want them to.

I agree with everything you've said except he's obviously not choosing that size every single time. No one can know what live recs will pick, they don't even know til it happens. This guy doesn't play holdem. I wasn't autopiloting this spot either. It's perfectly fine to not want to bet the worst turn in the deck when it almost always gives your opponent an 80% equity advantage and reduces your fold equity to zero, every single time.

Daily Update - Wed 4/10

Hours Played: 6.2
Profit: -$90
Game: 1/2 PLO

Notes: Super juicy game. Being card dead in PLO is noooot fun. Folded like 90% of hands this session simply because I didn't get any good PLO hands. Then when I would see a flop, I'd miss every single time. Never connected with a board etc. So that said, happy to have only lost $90.

Lost a chunk ($1100) playing PPPoker 3 handed vs a 70VPIP whale. Couple of punts on my end and I just ran into the nuts every time. Not going to play short handed again, even if it's vs a huge spaza - it's highly volatile and my overall strategy doesn't suit 3 handed meta. So really disappointing day in the end since I managed to lose a bunch by playing fairly bad.

Got a RIO sub again ($33) just to catch up on some NLH stuff for when I get back on the online grind. Looking to do that in the next couple days on Ignition but having trouble getting my identity verified atm.

Aussie Millions Trip

So I'm looking to head to Melbourne in January to play mostly cash during the AM. I'll look to play Event 9 and 15, which is a 1k and a $500 deepstack. But the main purpose of going down is to shot some juicy 5/10 games. I'll look to take a $5k 5/10 shot roll (i.e. 5 bullets), $1500 for the livaments, and the rest for 2/5 assuming I brick the shots.

To do this I'll need $30k in the bank by January. I'm no where near that atm and need to start winning again soon if I want any chance of getting down there. Whether I'm able to stay for 2 weeks, whether I'm able to play more tournies, how much 5/10 I can play will all depend on results up until that point. If I don't have $30k in the bank in 3 months, I am not sure I'll be able to go down.

Tomorrow I'm going to take the full day off to refresh. I need to go to the gym, sort out some Ignition documents, go to the post office, and just take a break. I won't get my 40 hours volume in this week but I think right at this point taking a full day off to refresh is important, considering I basically just punted $1k in 30 mins playing against the biggest whale ever.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...7C8876B842!334

I hope you were autopiloting and didnt deliberately decide to make the worst possible decision out of the three choices (c/f, c/c, bet). Look, these are the kind of spots that will make you or break you. Playing tight, face up, abc autopilot poker will only get you a small winrate @ nl 100bb cap games.

Everybody thinks the winrates come from coolering fish and winning flips, when in fact its not. Your ability (lol luck more like it) to cooler fish and run good on the flips through all the standard tag stuff like value betting thin, making tight folds, avoiding rio etc only allows you to survive. Correctly navigating the murky grey uncomfortable spots is what allows you to excel/ move up/ actually earn instead of surviving from one heater to the next.

think your looking at the wrong tourney schedule for aussie millions, i don't think they have any $500 tourneys, you may have been looking at the vic champs schedule which starts in a week. and crown doesn't have 5/10 per say, they have 5/5 which is a 1k buy in which i think sometimes has a $10 straddle.

https://aussiemillions.com/schedule

Is what I looked at. Seems to be a ton of small buyins? Weird the biggest event on that list is a 5k... Idk.

I was also under the impression that when it gets busy, i.e. January, 5/10 would get up fairly frequently? Maybe you're right and it's just a 5/5/10. I'd be happy with that however.