High stakes PLO adventures
10-08-2019
, 09:11 AM
Here's the long coming post on dealing with variance.
The key point I want to get across is that variance an integral part of poker. It's not something that 'happens' to you, it IS part of the game.
First let's define Expected Value (EV) as a measure of how much we will win on average. It's basically a mean of distribution of results.
And Variance measures how far our results MAY be from the expected value. I'll spare you the technical details, but it is important to point out that in poker we would usually look at Standard Deviation (square root from variance) and that it's always a positive number.
Variance (StdDev) and EV are metrics that we employ to estimate of our win-rate. I would encourage you to play around with this variance calculator: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator. I'm sure it will be an eye opener for some of you. Check how often you can expect to end up losing over 100k hands with a win-rate of 2.5bb/100. Are you surprised that it's above 20%?. It's very easy to deceive yourself that the positive results in poker are more representative of how things should be, while the negative outcomes are a deviation from 'the norm'. Don't fall into this trap. Realise that there is a lot of variance in short term results and we need a significant hand sample size to make solid assumptions about our win-rate. It's sad to see how some novice pros ignore bankroll management principles and move up the stakes and/or increase their monthly expenses just because they had a couple months with very good results. The reality check comes sooner than later.
Alight, so now that we've covered the basics and laid the groundwork for estimating win-rates, let's talk about 'dealing with variance'.
Bankroll management is out of scope of this post and is a huge topic on it's own. If you're not familiar with Bankroll Management theory, I encourage you to dig deeper into it, because whatever other measures we take to deal with the emotions arising from variance, if you're risking 10% of your bankroll every session you play - I can't help you. You're just setting yourself up for an emotional roller coaster. Anyway, I will assume that you make good BRM decisions and let's move on
Complaining or drowning in self-pity won't get you anywhere, so just face the reality and keep moving forward.
First you have to accept that there is no such thing as 'fair' result, whatever the outcome of the hand - it is final and non-reversible.
Next accept that there's no continuity to results. There's no such thing as momentum, the run of luck and all the other BS. There is just decision after decision that you make. Each one is isolated. If you get emotionally attached to results and that emotional state starts interfering with your judgement then you must take a break or quit your session.
And finally appreciate variance for what it is. We all have a tendency to notice the bad stuff and dwell on the 'injustice' of it, while largely ignoring the positive variance. We also tend to pay more attention to the 'big' hands, the large pots, the huge suckouts etc. But every decision and I mean EVERY decision has an element of variance. We are acting on incomplete information and variance is part of the game. Paying closer attention to the positive outcomes can be quite a transformative experience.
A lot of people bring up variance and dwell on their graphs as a way to make sense of why they're losing. That way they find external circumstances to blame e.g. "I'm just on a downswing", "I'm running really bad" etc. I have to admit that at some point in my poker career I was also one of those people. Breaking out of that mindset has been liberating. The effect that results had on me dramatically changed to the better when I accepted a simple fact that variance in the outcomes is neither fair or unfair and thus I can only accept the results and keep going. Also accepting that there's no continuity helped me to break out of a 'bookkeeping trap' where I would look at my graphs filtered for a time period that best fits the narrative I was trying to sell myself. E.g. if I wanted to believe that I'm on a 'downswing', I would filter for time period that would support this claim. E.g. 3 months of downswing. But, hey - what if you 'zoom out' and check lifetime results? Or what if you don't check results at all? There's no practical reason to check your results for a month, for a week, for a quarter etc. Thinking in these time frames can only hurt you. For example if you are losing for the month, you might approach your sessions differently to if it were a winning month. And vice versa, if you're having the best month ever, you might get risk averse in your last couple sessions. These things only hurt your win-rate.
Instead be process oriented. Study, work on your game and make good decisions, the rest is going to take care of itself. In this game there's no substitute for hard work in the long term. But there's a huge difference between merely working hard and working hard on the right thing.
And finally I'd like to advise not to attach your ego to the results. The best way to play a game (any game) is to detach from the scoreboard. The scoreboard is your best friend if you use it to track your progress, it becomes your enemy if you attach your ego with it.
The key point I want to get across is that variance an integral part of poker. It's not something that 'happens' to you, it IS part of the game.
First let's define Expected Value (EV) as a measure of how much we will win on average. It's basically a mean of distribution of results.
And Variance measures how far our results MAY be from the expected value. I'll spare you the technical details, but it is important to point out that in poker we would usually look at Standard Deviation (square root from variance) and that it's always a positive number.
Variance (StdDev) and EV are metrics that we employ to estimate of our win-rate. I would encourage you to play around with this variance calculator: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator. I'm sure it will be an eye opener for some of you. Check how often you can expect to end up losing over 100k hands with a win-rate of 2.5bb/100. Are you surprised that it's above 20%?. It's very easy to deceive yourself that the positive results in poker are more representative of how things should be, while the negative outcomes are a deviation from 'the norm'. Don't fall into this trap. Realise that there is a lot of variance in short term results and we need a significant hand sample size to make solid assumptions about our win-rate. It's sad to see how some novice pros ignore bankroll management principles and move up the stakes and/or increase their monthly expenses just because they had a couple months with very good results. The reality check comes sooner than later.
Alight, so now that we've covered the basics and laid the groundwork for estimating win-rates, let's talk about 'dealing with variance'.
Bankroll management is out of scope of this post and is a huge topic on it's own. If you're not familiar with Bankroll Management theory, I encourage you to dig deeper into it, because whatever other measures we take to deal with the emotions arising from variance, if you're risking 10% of your bankroll every session you play - I can't help you. You're just setting yourself up for an emotional roller coaster. Anyway, I will assume that you make good BRM decisions and let's move on
Complaining or drowning in self-pity won't get you anywhere, so just face the reality and keep moving forward.
First you have to accept that there is no such thing as 'fair' result, whatever the outcome of the hand - it is final and non-reversible.
Next accept that there's no continuity to results. There's no such thing as momentum, the run of luck and all the other BS. There is just decision after decision that you make. Each one is isolated. If you get emotionally attached to results and that emotional state starts interfering with your judgement then you must take a break or quit your session.
And finally appreciate variance for what it is. We all have a tendency to notice the bad stuff and dwell on the 'injustice' of it, while largely ignoring the positive variance. We also tend to pay more attention to the 'big' hands, the large pots, the huge suckouts etc. But every decision and I mean EVERY decision has an element of variance. We are acting on incomplete information and variance is part of the game. Paying closer attention to the positive outcomes can be quite a transformative experience.
A lot of people bring up variance and dwell on their graphs as a way to make sense of why they're losing. That way they find external circumstances to blame e.g. "I'm just on a downswing", "I'm running really bad" etc. I have to admit that at some point in my poker career I was also one of those people. Breaking out of that mindset has been liberating. The effect that results had on me dramatically changed to the better when I accepted a simple fact that variance in the outcomes is neither fair or unfair and thus I can only accept the results and keep going. Also accepting that there's no continuity helped me to break out of a 'bookkeeping trap' where I would look at my graphs filtered for a time period that best fits the narrative I was trying to sell myself. E.g. if I wanted to believe that I'm on a 'downswing', I would filter for time period that would support this claim. E.g. 3 months of downswing. But, hey - what if you 'zoom out' and check lifetime results? Or what if you don't check results at all? There's no practical reason to check your results for a month, for a week, for a quarter etc. Thinking in these time frames can only hurt you. For example if you are losing for the month, you might approach your sessions differently to if it were a winning month. And vice versa, if you're having the best month ever, you might get risk averse in your last couple sessions. These things only hurt your win-rate.
Instead be process oriented. Study, work on your game and make good decisions, the rest is going to take care of itself. In this game there's no substitute for hard work in the long term. But there's a huge difference between merely working hard and working hard on the right thing.
And finally I'd like to advise not to attach your ego to the results. The best way to play a game (any game) is to detach from the scoreboard. The scoreboard is your best friend if you use it to track your progress, it becomes your enemy if you attach your ego with it.
10-14-2019
, 02:48 AM
Hey guys, this week is going to be quite busy. Got a lot of things planned both for work and leisure. Got a sailing trip scheduled for the end of the week. Quite looking forward to it.
Anyway, won't be posting much this week, but I will be on Twitch on Wednesday 6pm CEST. Tune in, I've got something cool planned for that one.
Anyway, won't be posting much this week, but I will be on Twitch on Wednesday 6pm CEST. Tune in, I've got something cool planned for that one.
10-20-2019
, 01:47 PM
I'm going to be on https://www.twitch.tv/bluffthespot EVERY Wednesday at 6pm Malta time. Some of my poker friends will be joining me. The plan is to have no plan So we'll be railing some games, discussing hands, strategy, mental game tips, talking about live trips, degen stories etc.
So we'll be railing some games, discussing hands, strategy, mental game tips, talking about live trips, degen stories etc.
10-30-2019
, 12:34 PM
https://twitter.com/RunchuksP/status...40336839487489
I've witnessed that earlier today. Still can't get over it
Seems a bit rough from mogli there. Obv I don't know if there's some similar history between them of potential grimming happening. But even though St1ckman does make some slightly dickish moves occasionally, from many times that we've played together, I never saw him grimming.
Is it just one of those times when it's too easy to be an ******* keyboard warrior or is mogli trying 'the long con' of tilting the guy for the next few sessions? What do you guys think?
I've witnessed that earlier today. Still can't get over it
Seems a bit rough from mogli there. Obv I don't know if there's some similar history between them of potential grimming happening. But even though St1ckman does make some slightly dickish moves occasionally, from many times that we've played together, I never saw him grimming. Is it just one of those times when it's too easy to be an ******* keyboard warrior or is mogli trying 'the long con' of tilting the guy for the next few sessions? What do you guys think?
10-30-2019
, 05:22 PM
Grimming is unacceptable and end of story... what about unintentional? still grimming - end of story I suppose
10-30-2019
, 10:32 PM
Quote:
Here's the long coming post on dealing with variance.
The key point I want to get across is that variance an integral part of poker. It's not something that 'happens' to you, it IS part of the game.
First let's define Expected Value (EV) as a measure of how much we will win on average. It's basically a mean of distribution of results.
And Variance measures how far our results MAY be from the expected value. I'll spare you the technical details, but it is important to point out that in poker we would usually look at Standard Deviation (square root from variance) and that it's always a positive number.
Variance (StdDev) and EV are metrics that we employ to estimate of our win-rate. I would encourage you to play around with this variance calculator: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator. I'm sure it will be an eye opener for some of you. Check how often you can expect to end up losing over 100k hands with a win-rate of 2.5bb/100. Are you surprised that it's above 20%?. It's very easy to deceive yourself that the positive results in poker are more representative of how things should be, while the negative outcomes are a deviation from 'the norm'. Don't fall into this trap. Realise that there is a lot of variance in short term results and we need a significant hand sample size to make solid assumptions about our win-rate. It's sad to see how some novice pros ignore bankroll management principles and move up the stakes and/or increase their monthly expenses just because they had a couple months with very good results. The reality check comes sooner than later.
Alight, so now that we've covered the basics and laid the groundwork for estimating win-rates, let's talk about 'dealing with variance'.
Bankroll management is out of scope of this post and is a huge topic on it's own. If you're not familiar with Bankroll Management theory, I encourage you to dig deeper into it, because whatever other measures we take to deal with the emotions arising from variance, if you're risking 10% of your bankroll every session you play - I can't help you. You're just setting yourself up for an emotional roller coaster. Anyway, I will assume that you make good BRM decisions and let's move on
Complaining or drowning in self-pity won't get you anywhere, so just face the reality and keep moving forward.
First you have to accept that there is no such thing as 'fair' result, whatever the outcome of the hand - it is final and non-reversible.
Next accept that there's no continuity to results. There's no such thing as momentum, the run of luck and all the other BS. There is just decision after decision that you make. Each one is isolated. If you get emotionally attached to results and that emotional state starts interfering with your judgement then you must take a break or quit your session.
And finally appreciate variance for what it is. We all have a tendency to notice the bad stuff and dwell on the 'injustice' of it, while largely ignoring the positive variance. We also tend to pay more attention to the 'big' hands, the large pots, the huge suckouts etc. But every decision and I mean EVERY decision has an element of variance. We are acting on incomplete information and variance is part of the game. Paying closer attention to the positive outcomes can be quite a transformative experience.
A lot of people bring up variance and dwell on their graphs as a way to make sense of why they're losing. That way they find external circumstances to blame e.g. "I'm just on a downswing", "I'm running really bad" etc. I have to admit that at some point in my poker career I was also one of those people. Breaking out of that mindset has been liberating. The effect that results had on me dramatically changed to the better when I accepted a simple fact that variance in the outcomes is neither fair or unfair and thus I can only accept the results and keep going. Also accepting that there's no continuity helped me to break out of a 'bookkeeping trap' where I would look at my graphs filtered for a time period that best fits the narrative I was trying to sell myself. E.g. if I wanted to believe that I'm on a 'downswing', I would filter for time period that would support this claim. E.g. 3 months of downswing. But, hey - what if you 'zoom out' and check lifetime results? Or what if you don't check results at all? There's no practical reason to check your results for a month, for a week, for a quarter etc. Thinking in these time frames can only hurt you. For example if you are losing for the month, you might approach your sessions differently to if it were a winning month. And vice versa, if you're having the best month ever, you might get risk averse in your last couple sessions. These things only hurt your win-rate.
Instead be process oriented. Study, work on your game and make good decisions, the rest is going to take care of itself. In this game there's no substitute for hard work in the long term. But there's a huge difference between merely working hard and working hard on the right thing.
And finally I'd like to advise not to attach your ego to the results. The best way to play a game (any game) is to detach from the scoreboard. The scoreboard is your best friend if you use it to track your progress, it becomes your enemy if you attach your ego with it.
The key point I want to get across is that variance an integral part of poker. It's not something that 'happens' to you, it IS part of the game.
First let's define Expected Value (EV) as a measure of how much we will win on average. It's basically a mean of distribution of results.
And Variance measures how far our results MAY be from the expected value. I'll spare you the technical details, but it is important to point out that in poker we would usually look at Standard Deviation (square root from variance) and that it's always a positive number.
Variance (StdDev) and EV are metrics that we employ to estimate of our win-rate. I would encourage you to play around with this variance calculator: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator. I'm sure it will be an eye opener for some of you. Check how often you can expect to end up losing over 100k hands with a win-rate of 2.5bb/100. Are you surprised that it's above 20%?. It's very easy to deceive yourself that the positive results in poker are more representative of how things should be, while the negative outcomes are a deviation from 'the norm'. Don't fall into this trap. Realise that there is a lot of variance in short term results and we need a significant hand sample size to make solid assumptions about our win-rate. It's sad to see how some novice pros ignore bankroll management principles and move up the stakes and/or increase their monthly expenses just because they had a couple months with very good results. The reality check comes sooner than later.
Alight, so now that we've covered the basics and laid the groundwork for estimating win-rates, let's talk about 'dealing with variance'.
Bankroll management is out of scope of this post and is a huge topic on it's own. If you're not familiar with Bankroll Management theory, I encourage you to dig deeper into it, because whatever other measures we take to deal with the emotions arising from variance, if you're risking 10% of your bankroll every session you play - I can't help you. You're just setting yourself up for an emotional roller coaster. Anyway, I will assume that you make good BRM decisions and let's move on
Complaining or drowning in self-pity won't get you anywhere, so just face the reality and keep moving forward.
First you have to accept that there is no such thing as 'fair' result, whatever the outcome of the hand - it is final and non-reversible.
Next accept that there's no continuity to results. There's no such thing as momentum, the run of luck and all the other BS. There is just decision after decision that you make. Each one is isolated. If you get emotionally attached to results and that emotional state starts interfering with your judgement then you must take a break or quit your session.
And finally appreciate variance for what it is. We all have a tendency to notice the bad stuff and dwell on the 'injustice' of it, while largely ignoring the positive variance. We also tend to pay more attention to the 'big' hands, the large pots, the huge suckouts etc. But every decision and I mean EVERY decision has an element of variance. We are acting on incomplete information and variance is part of the game. Paying closer attention to the positive outcomes can be quite a transformative experience.
A lot of people bring up variance and dwell on their graphs as a way to make sense of why they're losing. That way they find external circumstances to blame e.g. "I'm just on a downswing", "I'm running really bad" etc. I have to admit that at some point in my poker career I was also one of those people. Breaking out of that mindset has been liberating. The effect that results had on me dramatically changed to the better when I accepted a simple fact that variance in the outcomes is neither fair or unfair and thus I can only accept the results and keep going. Also accepting that there's no continuity helped me to break out of a 'bookkeeping trap' where I would look at my graphs filtered for a time period that best fits the narrative I was trying to sell myself. E.g. if I wanted to believe that I'm on a 'downswing', I would filter for time period that would support this claim. E.g. 3 months of downswing. But, hey - what if you 'zoom out' and check lifetime results? Or what if you don't check results at all? There's no practical reason to check your results for a month, for a week, for a quarter etc. Thinking in these time frames can only hurt you. For example if you are losing for the month, you might approach your sessions differently to if it were a winning month. And vice versa, if you're having the best month ever, you might get risk averse in your last couple sessions. These things only hurt your win-rate.
Instead be process oriented. Study, work on your game and make good decisions, the rest is going to take care of itself. In this game there's no substitute for hard work in the long term. But there's a huge difference between merely working hard and working hard on the right thing.
And finally I'd like to advise not to attach your ego to the results. The best way to play a game (any game) is to detach from the scoreboard. The scoreboard is your best friend if you use it to track your progress, it becomes your enemy if you attach your ego with it.
11-02-2019
, 06:32 AM
Quote:
relating to your downswings post.
You mentioned the topic of graphs and how it shouldn't affect your play at all, how the daily/weekly/monthly, even longer time periods should not matter in the grand scheme of things.
How do you get such a mindset, how often do you look at your own graph and how often would you recommend other pros to do so?
You mentioned the topic of graphs and how it shouldn't affect your play at all, how the daily/weekly/monthly, even longer time periods should not matter in the grand scheme of things.
How do you get such a mindset, how often do you look at your own graph and how often would you recommend other pros to do so?
As to how often I would recommend to check your graph... Everyone's different and I think once you get into a process oriented mindset, it won't really mater how often you check your graph.
You should use the information about your results and your graph primarily to estimate your win-rate (which is not static) and for that you should obviously look at the larger hand sample sizes. The results for the day, the week or the month have too much variance to be truly useful.
Thanks
I'm glad you like it and I appreciate that you posted about it here. I'm planning to keep it up on a regular basis from now on. Will be publishing most of my weekly Twitch shows and also some exclusive content just for YT.And if you guys have any suggestions as to what you'd like to see on the channel - let me know.
11-06-2019
, 09:45 AM
About 2.5 years ago I've stopped checking the graph for how much over / under ev I am. It was liberating. Tracking the over/under caused nothing but trouble and affected my game in many negative ways (regardless if it was over or under). I was just sinking into a kind of 'graph building' behaviour. We must not forget that we're in the business of making money, not of making graphs.
Anyway, from the old days I remember the first huge under ev swing was 120bb and I thought that's awful. But then about 2 years later I went 150bb under ev and that was my worst. The last one I remember was about 3 years ago when I went 90 BI under ev in 200k hands, while still winning 20 BI. When these swings were happening, I remember obsessing about them, sending the graphs to some of my poker friends. I guess I was seeking some sort of support and encouragement. But tbh, what's the point? If there was a prize for the unluckiest poker player, I wouldn't want to be a contender. The bottom line is that there's no upside to dwelling on your swings. And there's no upside in looking for the periods where your graph fits the narrative that you want to convince yourself of. Just do the work. Concentrate on what's important. The more time you spend on thinking about your swings, the less time you have left to spend on improving your game and winning.