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Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals

10-22-2018 , 04:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I honestly can't be f**ked posting any hand histories because I'm not in the mood to have to deal with the haters today when I'm on the worst LLSNL downswing of my life.


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I'll just let long-term results speak for themselves, and I'm going to ignore these short-term results and just stay focused.
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Number of hours played: ~500
Number of hands played: ~15,000
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Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 04:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
5 losing sessions in a row at 1/3 NL live

So not long ago, I was on a 1.9k downswing where I had 6 losing sessions in a row... I'd only just recovered from that and then BAM: another downswing emerges: this time I'm 2.3k down from my peak, which sets a new record for me as the biggest downswing I've ever had at 1/3 NL live. Fantastic.

It's kind of frustrating losing this much at such a soft, passive game. Today in particular, I lost $766 after 4.5 hours of playing (hit my stop loss and had to leave early), and it primarily boiled down to 4 things:
1) Lost $200 set over set
2) Lost $300 with flopped top 2pr vs turned set (2 outered)
3) Lost $90 TP + bdfd vs overpair
4) Lost about $300 from constantly missing flops and Cbets not getting through

I honestly can't be f**ked posting any hand histories because I'm not in the mood to have to deal with the haters today when I'm on the worst LLSNL downswing of my life.

I think I played very well today, but I can't be bothered providing hand histories as evidence of that. I don't feel like I need to prove myself in every session I play. I'll just let long-term results speak for themselves, and I'm going to ignore these short-term results and just stay focused.

I'm going to take a few hours break, watch some YouTube, play some online chess, maybe go for a walk... then I'll put in another 25nl online session tonight. Or not. We'll see how I feel. Right now I'm feeling really sh*t.
I knew you were stupid when you thought 10-15bi downswings were huge...''the worst downswing of my life'' what is $2100 at 1/3 7bi? lmfao, good news is you have something in common with about 95% of other poker players who think they're Gods after a short term heater(delusional),You sir are weak maybe ask your backer to give you a sponge bath and massage so you don't feel so **** and lose more of his $.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 04:58 AM
Yes, everybody who doesent high five you and everything you do is "haters"- thats the classic defenseline from delusional people, or from people that only wants a church with gospel.

What is happenning is that reality is starting to catch up to you, that is why you feel like ****. The delusional world you live in is getting challenged by reality. All i read is how you describe the 1/3 games as so soft,passive and easy to beat, only for you to make the one spewy play after another and to have bad sessions and more bad losing sessions.

You have some serious mental work to do, regarding both your attitude, connections to reality and show more humility towards your task. You arent entitled to anything, even beating 1/3 live NL against "passive fish" as you always call them. It still requires you to make good decisions, not tilt, execute discipline when you have to fold for hours and to exploit the mistakes people are making. Hint: exploiting passive fish doesent mean 3 betting into their strong ranges with AJ off or KQ off, or even 6-7 suited.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:08 AM
The good news is you're only on a 7 buyin downswing.

The bad news is you're definitely going to have 15 buyin downswings, and this could be one of them. At least you're.... half way theeeeere. oooooh ooooh liiiiiving on a staaake
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgiggity
The good news is you're only on a 7 buyin downswing.

The bad news is you're definitely going to have 15 buyin downswings, and this could be one of them. At least you're.... half way theeeeere. oooooh ooooh liiiiiving on a staaake
If the 15 buyin downswing starts today, then that will actually become a 22 buyin downswing.

Then if another 15 buyin downswing starts after that, it will actually become a 37 buyin downswing.

And if another 15 buyin downswing starts after that, it will then become a 52 buyin downswing. It's ridiculous. It never ends.

It's so annoying how variance doesn't remember past results... even if I'm currently on the worst downswing of my LLSNL career, I still have no way of knowing if the next session is going to be a winning or losing session. I could start a brand new chain of losses today, and that chain will just add on to the current chain. It's insane. Ughhhhh...
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
If the 15 buyin downswing starts today, then that will actually become a 22 buyin downswing.

Then if another 15 buyin downswing starts after that, it will actually become a 37 buyin downswing.

And if another 15 buyin downswing starts after that, it will then become a 52 buyin downswing. It's ridiculous. It never ends.

It's so annoying how variance doesn't remember past results... even if I'm currently on the worst downswing of my LLSNL career, I still have no way of knowing if the next session is going to be a winning or losing session. I could start a brand new chain of losses today, and that chain will just add on to the current chain. It's insane. Ughhhhh...

Welcome to poker reality OP.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:33 AM
its only taken a 7bi down swing for OP to start losing his mind. Thread just went up a gear. lolz.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
If the 15 buyin downswing starts today, then that will actually become a 22 buyin downswing.

Then if another 15 buyin downswing starts after that, it will actually become a 37 buyin downswing.

And if another 15 buyin downswing starts after that, it will then become a 52 buyin downswing. It's ridiculous. It never ends.

It's so annoying how variance doesn't remember past results... even if I'm currently on the worst downswing of my LLSNL career, I still have no way of knowing if the next session is going to be a winning or losing session. I could start a brand new chain of losses today, and that chain will just add on to the current chain. It's insane. Ughhhhh...
This mindset is exactly the opposite to what you need, paranoia is setting in your confidence is shot all the doubts you have are more than likely real because you're not a very good player and that can be hard to accept. You should stop now before you lose all your profits/get more upset and work on improving at the game then when you're ready return.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:35 AM
I remember once 2 years ago, I sat down at the 5/10/20 table for the first time in my life. Back then, the minimum buyin was only $600, and that's what I bought in for.

There was a guy there in his late 20s, talking about how he wanted to retire from poker. It was September and he was saying how he was previously $66k up for the year, but he'd recently been on an $18k downswing and was now only $48k up for the year. And he wanted to end his poker career because of that.

I said to him "but you're still 48k up in 8 months, that's pretty good", but he didn't see it that way.

I'm going to make an effort to just focus on my yearly results, rather than focusing on the downswing. I'm still 13k up for the year, and at least 5k up from 1/3 NL alone. I'm not going to let the recent downswing cripple me and make me quit. I'll push through this.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgiggity
The good news is you're only on a 7 buyin downswing.

The bad news is you're definitely going to have 15 buyin downswings, and this could be one of them. At least you're.... half way theeeeere. oooooh ooooh liiiiiving on a staaake
Can't make my hands even losing with 2pair! woaaaaaaaaaaah ohhhhhhhhh liiiiiiiiiving on a staaaaaaaaaaaake

He's down on his luck it's tough, so tough.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:49 AM
So I take you actually owe money at this point in time?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 05:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I'm going to make an effort to just focus on my yearly results, rather than focusing on the downswing. I'm still 13k up for the year, and at least 5k up from 1/3 NL alone. I'm not going to let the recent downswing cripple me and make me quit. I'll push through this.
6b, be honest with yourself here. Let's say you're up $6k at 1/3. That means you're up 2000bbs. The hours quote I posted earlier was from 9/29, so let's say you're at 600 hours now. Assuming 75% of that was spent at 1/3, that means you've done 450 hours. If we look at this "long-term", we can see that you're making $13.33/hr. That's your actual long-term reality right now. You said that you were look at long-term and there it is. But now it's $13.33/hr while being backed, so you can expect $6.67/hr if you look at the "long-term". edit: before you say "it's not 75%", 50% is still $20/hr with making $10/hr staked. Would've been nice to keep records to know this stuff, right?

I know what I wrote won't matter but that right there is the truth of where you are.

But while you're playing, keep
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I could start a brand new chain of losses today, and that chain will just add on to the current chain. It's insane. Ughhhhh...
Now imagine a 350k hands (7 months) of break-even stretch as a pro... If you play millions of hands, such a stretch will probably happen... And yes, it does test your sanity
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated
6b, be honest with yourself here. Let's say you're up $6k at 1/3. That means you're up 2000bbs. The hours quote I posted earlier was from 9/29, so let's say you're at 600 hours now. Assuming 75% of that was spent at 1/3, that means you've done 450 hours. If we look at this "long-term", we can see that you're making $13.33/hr. That's your actual long-term reality right now. You said that you were look at long-term and there it is. But now it's $13.33/hr while being backed, so you can expect $6.67/hr if you look at the "long-term". edit: before you say "it's not 75%", 50% is still $20/hr with making $10/hr staked. Would've been nice to keep records to know this stuff, right
You can't just pick my net results during the very bottom of my worst downswing and then say that that's what my long term hourly win rate is... this is going to underestimate my win rate.

Besides, I'm probably closer to 8k up at 1/3 with closer to 400 hours. But a lot of this is guess work because for the first 5 months of the year, I only recorded my net profit, not what games I played.

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Originally Posted by .isolated
But while you're playing, keep
Lol my girlfriend says that a lot. "Fighting".

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Originally Posted by Dubnjoy000
Now imagine a 350k hands (7 months) of break-even stretch as a pro... If you play millions of hands, such a stretch will probably happen... And yes, it does test your sanity
This is supposed to happen online, not live. Downswings and breakeven stretches are supposed to be significantly less bad live than online, due to higher win rates and more passive games.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
It's so annoying how variance doesn't remember past results... even if I'm currently on the worst downswing of my LLSNL career, I still have no way of knowing if the next session is going to be a winning or losing session. I could start a brand new chain of losses today, and that chain will just add on to the current chain. It's insane. Ughhhhh...
There's nothing worse than playing bad for a few days, taking a breath, sorting yourself out mentally, coming back sharp and focused, playing your A game and then running into a bunch of coolers.

I feel you. I've been there a bunch.

But remember that's why it's so important to always play your A game and not punt off buy-ins. Days like today will always happen but days like the prior ones shouldn't.

Today would just be slight blip in your graph if you always played well, instead it's bad luck being piled onto bad play culminating in a big loss.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
So I take you actually owe money at this point in time?
Technically, he is in make up, by about 1 buy in.

The interesting question is how long DLuo allows the OP to continue on his "downswing." If he decides that his $500 profit is the bottom, the OP has about 3 buying to go. If he decides he'd just like to breakeven, it is about 5 buyins.

My guess is he'll provide some coaching at 3 buy ins and cut him off at about 6-7 buy ins.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:23 AM
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Originally Posted by 6bet me
Lol my girlfriend says that a lot. "Fighting".
Girl in pic is also Thai

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You can't just pick my net results during the very bottom of my worst downswing and then say that that's what my long term hourly win rate is... this is going to underestimate my win rate... I only recorded my net profit, not what games I played.
We'll call it guestimating.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:24 AM
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Originally Posted by venice10
Technically, he is in make up, by about 1 buy in.

The interesting question is how long DLuo allows the OP to continue on his "downswing." If he decides that his $500 profit is the bottom, the OP has about 3 buying to go. If he decides he'd just like to breakeven, it is about 5 buyins.

My guess is he'll provide some coaching at 3 buy ins and cut him off at about 6-7 buy ins.
For sure interesting question. If DLuo decides enough is enough soon, OP could be out of action faster than he would think.

The chances that OP will tilt/spew/punt off some more buyins in the near future because of worse mental state due to the recent losses is significant if you ask me.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci
The chances that OP will tilt/spew/punt off some more buyins in the near future because of worse mental state due to the recent losses is significant if you ask me.
With what money? Could be wrong but pretty sure OP is flat broke.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
This is supposed to happen online, not live. Downswings and breakeven stretches are supposed to be significantly less bad live than online, due to higher win rates and more passive games.
I hate to say it, but given your (very) limited understanding of variance demonstrated ITT thus far, you have not visited the abyss yet as far as prolllonnnng downswings goes
Spoiler:
it is f**king hell
Spoiler:
yes winrates are smaller online, but you get to play 10-20x more hands : all you need is a stretch of a few thousand hands of run bad for live to be a living nightmare
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
With what money? Could be wrong but pretty sure OP is flat broke.
Staking money is what i had in mind. I know DLuo is babysitting OP as much as he can, but i would guess he cant fully prevent him from torching off more money at the tables- unless he take him out of action of course, and refuses to stake him anymore.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 06:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci
Staking money is what i had in mind. I know DLuo is babysitting OP as much as he can, but i would guess he cant fully prevent him from torching off more money at the tables- unless he take him out of action of course, and refuses to stake him anymore.
OP mentioned a stoploss. My guess is he doesn't get an opportunity to jump stakes or torch stacks at 1/3, at least not for more than $1k. Which of course is boring for us but it's more interesting to see OP incinerate money while being stakes than him scraping pennies on his own.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 07:06 AM
Forgot to include this in my post because it's kinda vital:

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Besides, I'm probably closer to 8k up at 1/3 with closer to 400 hours. But a lot of this is guess work because for the first 5 months of the year, I only recorded my net profit, not what games I played.
You do realize that's the $20/hr I mentioned, right? So $10/hr right now w/DL which is nearly half minwage and no way to save up to get on your own.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 07:12 AM
$20/h is probably still running slightly over expectation. A big enough sample size will sort itself out eventually.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
10-22-2018 , 07:17 AM
That's veering from the point I'm making. If he's looking at long-term results and it's $20/hr, he has to sit down and be realistic and realize that even if he was on his own that that isn't enough to support himself. Not only is $20/hr not enough, but he's giving money away when he wins.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote

      
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