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Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals

05-10-2018 , 05:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
Actually Avaratia I am not a unicorn. I am a jackass. I have been tryin to get outta gamboolin since 1997. Every time I think Im out...they drag me back. Maybe THIS time it will stick
Have you considered other hobbies to keep you away, such as maybe buying a remote control toy or something?

Gthisthreadmightbemorefun/hasmorepotentialthanthechatthread;let'stakeitover? G
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-10-2018 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Been avoiding this one but your recent post seemed sincere so I'll respond. I know none of this will get through because I too was once a young adult male.
I agree with this. High stakes games are rare. Anything above 2/5 at my local casino barely ever runs.

It's quite sad to see OP has dreams of making it to high stakes, when he hasn't actually checked if such high stakes games even exist and run frequently enough. That is very poor planning on his part. I would have thought this is the first thing you do before embarking on climbing up the stakes. OP is grinding towards games which are virtually non-existent.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-10-2018 , 06:26 PM
In LA, you can play 5/T+ essentially all the time. Not to say it’s somethig to aim for, but it is a great poker hub.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-10-2018 , 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spirit123
In LA, you can play 5/T+ essentially all the time. Not to say it’s somethig to aim for, but it is a great poker hub.
What about 10/20? OP thinks its easy to win $300K playing 2000 hrs of 10/20 in a year.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-10-2018 , 07:43 PM
To get even 1000+ hour of 5/10+, he's gonna have to play online and against much tougher comp.

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Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-10-2018 , 07:56 PM
I think it's great go after your dreams and aspirations so long as you are cognizant of reality. I say go for it but have realistic expectations, if you can make >50k in a year you are doing very well, >100k in a year you are doing extremely well. 300k in a year may be possible for the handful of truely elite in a decade or 2 if you include landing sponsorships, book deals, starting some kind of poker related business venture and other supplemental income.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-10-2018 , 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
What about 10/20? OP thinks its easy to win $300K playing 2000 hrs of 10/20 in a year.
Today’s my third day playing at Hawaiian gardens. There has been a T/T/20 going almost all the hours I’ve been here. I have not been to the bike or commerce yet, but I’m assuming they have similar availability since they both have more tables than HG.

But it’s not easy. You have to be a sharp patient player and run really good and have a big bankroll to withstand the variance in that game. People are buying in 5-10k on average.

Last edited by spirit123; 05-10-2018 at 08:45 PM.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 05:56 AM
So many whales at the 5/5/10

The past few days, I'd been playing a fair bit of 1/3 PLO and running really hot. I won a few thousand there. Then last night I saw the 5/5/10 running, which doesn't happen every night. Not only that but it was full of 9 players and even had 4 others on the waiting list. I knew something was up, so I went to check out the game for myself.

It took me an hour before I got a seat, but when I sat down, it was basically 3 whales, 3 decent live regs and 2 high stakes online pros. The whales were playing about 50% of hands. They were calling raises with J4s and 32s. Some were voluntarily putting out a $20 double straddle every orbit. There was a hand where a guy limps $10 in MP, BTN opens $60, BB 3bets $220 and BTN calls. At showdown, BTN shows 96o.

I played for a few hours. I was 2k up at one stage but ultimately left the game 2k down. I just seemed to be missing everything towards the end. I'd flop the nut flush draw and miss, I'd 3bet AK and miss, etc. This resulted in me pulling a few spewy river bluffs because I thought I could credibly rep a strong hand, but in all occasions I got hero called by weak to medium strength hands.

Here are my results for the year now, after the disappointing session last night:
Live profit: +$11,157
Online profit: -$1000
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 06:04 AM
I think you have to tighten up significantly when the game is loose to be profitable. It’s ok to give up in many situations when you miss the flop. Stop trying to bluff loose players. Especially if you have been caught once or twice, you really just have to sit tight until you hit a hand and your image improves.

I think a big part of moving up in stakes is learning how to protect your stack when you play deep. No need to bloat pots in marginal situations when you’re likely to be outplayed by more experienced players.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 06:36 AM
Lol at bankrollmanagement you are executing OP,or shall we say the total lack of it. I mean this is just all over the place. You have no business whatsoever to sit in a 5/10 game or a 5/5/10 game with a total 11K roll when that also includes your liferoll. You should be happy you didnt end down more than 2K. Despite what you think neither your experience level or your skill level is dictating that you are ready to play 5/10. Putting yourself in a situation where youre going through 4 K swings in one night (from up 2K to down 2K) is reckless and ridicilous.

You are extremely vulnerable to going busto when you dont give a damn about proper bankrollmanagement. And when you dont have any other savings/replenish options for your roll other than the pizza deliver job that you hate, that would be the worst thing happenning for you.

This is the classic trap i have seen for so many players, especially young ones. They want to hurry on (because they are too good and have too big of a dick+ego to play 1/3) and move up in bigger games way way to fast- wich eventually lead to them going broke because they simply dont have the roll to handle the swings. Like go on a 300 hour monsterheater, then they suddenly think they are the new Tom Dwan. Totally failing to see that their short term results is due to exremely positive variance,not that they are the new poker wonderboy.They go on a random heater for 200-300 hours when they start out live, then failing to look at the situation correctly. Succeding in poker (as in stay in the game with a small as possible chance of going busto), is a marathon- not a sprint. You need volume to develope your game, and to get big chunks of experience under your belt. Then shottake occasionally when the time is right, when the games are good- and when your roll can manage the possible swings.

Talking about being a serious pro when you show in every post you make how unserious and immature you are about everything poker related,and playing in 5/10 games with a total of 11K roll is just laughable.

Last edited by Petrucci; 05-11-2018 at 06:41 AM.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 07:43 AM
Confirmed last night game was insane. I rushed in but couldn’t make the list before 8:30. Game was dead by then.


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Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 10:39 AM
I've given up caring now. OP is obviously going to go broke, he's still trying to bluff whales on the river because in his own head it's credible for him to have a strong hand. Not bluffing the fish is one of the first things you learn in poker, not when you decide to "go pro". He's playing a game he has **** all buy ins for, he's on a massive heater and there's absolutely nothing to suggest that 1) he has the poker game to go pro and 2) he has the discipline to.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerforumposter
First of all a realistic, generous estimate for you is about 10bb/100, i.e. a good llsnl grinder. Secondly 5% risk of ruin is only good if you can easily redeposit, an actual pro will want roughly double that. If you want to know why, look at all the online crushers with 6bb+ winrates who have gone on 50+ bi downswings. Thirdly, pokerdope underestimates variance heavily because even a little bit of tilt will skew the risk of ruin dramatically.

Since a conservative estimate for winrate is the only kind of estimate that is not completely ******ed when considering the size of your bankroll, lets use that. Lets say you are winning at 7bb/100 (this could easily be even less). Now you need ~20bi for 5% RoR, but it's your life roll so make that 40bi, so that's 12k that you need to be properly rolled to play 1/3. Now if you don't mind busting your roll and redepositing then 20bi is technically fine, aside from the mental effect of the swings.
7bb/100 are you kidding me? Live poker takes 3hrs per 100 hands, so you're telling me that you think that $7/hr at 1/3 is my true long-term win rate?

I know I'm not making $100/hr like I've been making over the past 120hrs or so, but surely I'm making more than $7/hr.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 12:47 PM
Even with 20bb/100 it's still only $20/hour. Why waste your time on 1/3 when there are 5/10 games where you can make much more?

No risk no reward.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
7bb/100 are you kidding me? Live poker takes 3hrs per 100 hands, so you're telling me that you think that $7/hr at 1/3 is my true long-term win rate?

I know I'm not making $100/hr like I've been making over the past 120hrs or so, but surely I'm making more than $7/hr.
repeat your calculation, but slowly this time


Edit: oops im wrong, but yeah 7$/hr is a fair estimate. But of course you went on a 2k hands heater so you think you are a crusher i guess i cant change youe mind

Last edited by pokerforumposter; 05-11-2018 at 12:55 PM.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 12:54 PM
This just in..... OP admits to not winning 100bb per 100 hands!

Last edited by robert_utk; 05-11-2018 at 12:54 PM. Reason: Mafs hard yo
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DianeAbbott
I've given up caring now. OP is obviously going to go broke, he's still trying to bluff whales on the river because in his own head it's credible for him to have a strong hand. Not bluffing the fish is one of the first things you learn in poker, not when you decide to "go pro". He's playing a game he has **** all buy ins for, he's on a massive heater and there's absolutely nothing to suggest that 1) he has the poker game to go pro and 2) he has the discipline to.
I've definitely cut down on trying to bluff fish, but some spots just feel too good to pass up, especially when I have no SDV and the board texture is 1 card off something (1 off a straight, 1 off a flush or 1 off a boat). Those are the only times I really try to bluff. And it so happened that those were the board textures where I got hero called and lost 1k+ each time last night. It was a bit unlucky, but I guess I could pass up on those spots too, even though it feels gross to check back a hand which has no SDV when your opponent is severely capped on a dangerous board.

You think that I'm "obviously going to go broke". Maybe I will and maybe I won't, but I don't think it's as inevitable and obvious as you think it is. Part of the reason I've been taking shots is because I've been winning and this is essentially just house money. If I start losing more then I'll start dropping down in stakes. Simple.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I've definitely cut down on trying to bluff fish, but some spots just feel too good to pass up, especially when I have no SDV and the board texture is 1 card off something (1 off a straight, 1 off a flush or 1 off a boat). Those are the only times I really try to bluff. And it so happened that those were the board textures where I got hero called and lost 1k+ each time last night. It was a bit unlucky, but I guess I could pass up on those spots too, even though it feels gross to check back a hand which has no SDV when your opponent is severely capped on a dangerous board.



You think that I'm "obviously going to go broke". Maybe I will and maybe I won't, but I don't think it's as inevitable and obvious as you think it is. Part of the reason I've been taking shots is because I've been winning and this is essentially just house money. If I start losing more then I'll start dropping down in stakes. Simple.


“house money”

Ding Ding Ding!
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk
“house money”

Ding Ding Ding!
+1

Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spirit123
In LA, you can play 5/T+ essentially all the time. Not to say it’s somethig to aim for, but it is a great poker hub.
Thank you. For some reason, people think that it's impossible to find volume at the 5/10 and 10/20 live level. I think that if you're willing to move to live near the biggest poker room in your country, you're willing to adjust your sleeping pattern to whatever time the games run, you're willing to tell your friends that you'll socialise on the days that you're not working and not on weekends, and you're willing to be friendly and mix things up between home games and the casino, then it shouldn't be hard to get in 50hrs per week of 5/10 and above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
Even with 20bb/100 it's still only $20/hour. Why waste your time on 1/3 when there are 5/10 games where you can make much more?

No risk no reward.
Not sure if sarcasm... I mean $20/hr is fine, it's what I currently earn at my job, except I'd be playing poker, which is far more entertaining than my current job, but if you had the choice between $20/hr and $50/hr, then you'd choose the $50/hr. The higher games have higher variance but also greater potential to maximise your win rate, so I think that all aspiring live pros should aim to move to 5/10 as quickly as possible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk
This just in..... OP admits to not winning 100bb per 100 hands!
I've never been that unrealistic about my win rate?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spirit123
In LA, you can play 5/T+ essentially all the time. Not to say it’s somethig to aim for, but it is a great poker hub.
It seems that some of these cities that run the big games also have a much higher cost of living.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nevertilt19
It seems that some of these cities that run the big games also have a much higher cost of living.
Yeah that's definitely true. Even in Australia, I notice a correlation between the rich cities and the cities that have the highest games and most whales.

I still think though that the benefit of having softer games outweighs the higher cost of living.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-11-2018 , 07:33 PM
Friday and Saturday nights are the worst for poker.

Counterintuitively, I've found that weekends tend to be the worst for poker. They're always full of nitty grinders. I've noticed that for the past few months, all the soft games have been on Mondays through to Thursdays. Like those 5am Tuesday morning sessions tend to be so much looser than the 2am Saturday morning sessions.

There was a 5/5/10 game running but it looked dry so I decided not to play it. I think it's only worth me taking shots at the big games during the really soft, really juicy nights. There's no point in me playing such a big game when there are no whales at the table.

I was playing 2/5 tonight and the game was awful. There were 2 tables running and both were full of nit regs. The only "fish" there were a few players that were loose-passive pre but tight-aggressive postflop. You can win some money off these guys, but you're not going to make a fortune.

I lost a big pot stacking off 66 vs 53s on a 543r flop and bricking out. It was a single raised pot, a few players called, I flatted from the BB and then I just x/jammed the flop for my full stack.

Other than that, my stack would only really fluctuate when either I coolered someone else or someone else coolered me. I left the session $465 down. Such a dry game.

Live poker profit: +$10,692
Online poker profit: -$1000

My peak was just over 15k profit during the 5/5/10 session last night but oh well, at least I'm still above the 10k mark.

Last edited by 6bet me; 05-11-2018 at 07:38 PM.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-12-2018 , 02:02 AM
lol the level of delusion and ignorance from you is insane, really just seems like an elaborate troll
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
05-12-2018 , 02:21 AM
OP seems like a text book live degen. I'm in.

OP you should just grind 200 zone on ignition and get away from the scummy casino grind. Your life style will be much better. From what ive read about the casino grind, Id rather shoot myself.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote

      
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