Sigh, I feel like I'm reading my history. Good luck, I really hope you get a 'clear view' on your situation soon.

Here is my advice, I am a winning, mostly stars msnl+ reg since 2006. I also play live 5/10+10/20 and I promise your live analysis is far from reality as you're not accounting for many different factors and simply guessing a very generous winrate then multiplying it and assuming it will never deviate. I would guess the reality is you can play about 25-35 hours a week consistently at 2/5 with an expected long term hourly of 30$, max 50$ if your mental game and work ethic are both very strong. Even if its 50$, it is far from a guaranteed long term wage as the games are constantly changing and evolving, as well as potential for poker to fizzle out altogether for various reasons. You also need to account for getting none of the benefits of a career (healthcare etc). Even if it was a long term guaranteed wage, take my word for it you will NOT want to put in 20-30 hours a week live for more than another 3-5 years in all likelihood. That all said, I wish you luck and you should consider yourself lucky that you have a decently paid job that you enjoy for now.

Advice:

Keep playing poker part time for now.

That said, do everything in your power to figure out a career path doing something you would enjoy somewhat that pays decently. Please do not seriously consider playing poker long-term with your current skill level and likely future trajectory for poker. This isn't an insult, I wouldn't recommend poker long term for 90% of players likely. Spend as long as it takes researching jobs you may enjoy, then commit to whatever it takes to get there. In the meantime go ahead and grind as its going to be more fun and higher hourly than working some crap min wage job, but please plan for it to be short term.

Prioritize research and action for a future career over poker studying in your spare time. I suggest you take this famous personality test : https://www.16personalities.com/free-personality-test which is quite helpful as it gives you a deeper understanding of yourself and tells you what kinds of careers you would do well at and enjoy. I also suggest you check out the youtube channel called "actualized.org" and browse through to video titles that you think would help, tons of great free content there. He also offers a life purpose course for ~600$. I also suggest checking out Jordan Peterson lectures online, as well as his recent book "12 rules for life". Please heed my warning.

You're not in as bad of a spot as you may currently feel. Stay positive and good luck on your journey.

[QUOTE=feel wrath;53457523]how are you playing online if you live in Australia?

Answer is the app based poker options with club based cash games. NL50 is probably softer than live NL300, almost certainly.

quoting this for 2x the chance of seeing it. Adam is very levelheaded and I've gotten great advice from him before. All of us would be smart to take this post to heart. I am and I've been playing poker full time for 3+ years

Looks like a meaningless sales pitch to me. 16personalities? What a joke. Society certainly is dumbing down if people take this rubbish seriously.

Yeah, and this is true enough too.

Ha, I remember I was just coming off a $31/hr year at recreational 1/3 NL in 2012, and in 2013 I followed that up with a $35/hr year where I booked over $20K in winnings just playing a hobby once a week. I thought to myself, wow, if for some stupid reason I lose my job I could probably just do this and ship the easy money year in and year out. Lol, thank god it never came to that (I never once considered giving up my job, it was just an option I thought I might have in a worst case scenario), as I've since had a couple of single digit hourly win years since then, and the conditions have changed drastically for the worse. But in the midst of it, you can't sometimes realize how naive you really are.

But at least 3+ posters have responded to how incredibly unrealistic OPs high stakes aspirations are (for so many valid reasons). OP would be wise to give serious weight to those comments.

GgoodluckG

Stumbled upon this thread a couple of days ago. It is pure gold. But also kind of sad obviously. Best advice I've read:

Poker makes a great hobby, but a lousy job.

OP is gonna hit the wall pretty hard as soon as he reaches his first real downswing. (Lol lol lol also when talking about 3 buyins being a downswing).

Reality check incoming eventually, lets just put it that way.

1) Is $10/$20 live really as hard as you guys are making it out to be? I've seen players limp-calling pre at the 10/20 at Crown Melbourne. I've also seen some awful plays on LATB, even at 25/50. Surely a 6bb/hr win rate should be achievable there?

2) Is it that hard to find games? I'm willing to move cities if need be, but I heard that there are a bunch of 5/10 and 10/20 home games around Melbourne. I also heard that the Commerce casino in Los Angeles has multiple 10/20 games running most nights, so I could always do some overseas trips.

3) Is variance really that bad at low stakes live? I looked up a poker variance calculator online and it said that if my win rate is 20bb/100 (which is like $35/hr at 2/5) and my standard deviation is 100bb/100 (I assume this is about right for 2/5 live) then my risk of ruin should only be 5% with a 7.5 buyin bankroll ($3750). Since I have 9k to my name, wouldn't that bring my RoR to less than 1% if I were to play 2/5 and avoid doing anything tilty/spewy?

4) Precisely what is it that separates the long-term pros (those that have been playing for 10+ years professionally) from me? Weren't they all just passionate poker players that ran well initially, took a leap of faith, spent 7 days per week grinding/studying/thinking about poker and ultimately became successful? Why do some of you say that it takes a certain type of person to become a pro and that I don't fit that personality type? I love maths, finance, gambling and grinding. Aren't those the perfect traits to have for an aspiring pro?

youve never played 10/20. Why are you thinking so far ahead? Become the best player at 3/5 first. Build up a 40-50k roll. Then see how you want to move forward re: moving up in stakes. The swings at 5/T and T/20 are way bigger than you think.

OP, if you wanna listen for once regarding what people here tells you- who have played the game for countless years and several thousands of hours. This happend to me last summer during my Vegas grind, and simliar stretches for my best poker buddy who also crushes LLSNL games.

1) KK into AA 3 times in a row. Same session. 100 BB buyin lost each time.

2) Flopped 5 sets in one night: lost full stacks (100 BB or more) every single time. 5 flopped sets, lost with all 5 same session. Sucked out by gutshots on 3 of them and flushes on the river the two other times.

3) Losing like every big flip 10 times or more in a row. AK against QQ, Combodraw 14-15 outs on the flop against sets or the other way around: didnt matter. Lose,lose and lose once more. Full 100 BB stacks or more each time.

4) People hitting 2 and 3 outers on you time and time again. KK against QQ allin,lose. AA versus KK, lose. Over and over again. If the devils switch is on, you wont know whats possible before you experience it yourself.

This is just a couple of examples of what kind of mostly unavoidable negative variance youre gonna bump into eventually if you play long enough.

You assume you have a 20bb/100 winrate. That part, well.... The calculation also assumes no money is taken out of the bankroll. Any spending is basically lowering the winrate.

I am the long term pro. I honestly can not count the number of dudes that fit your exact profile that I have seen crash and burn. It is a huge number. I can tell you why I made it. I know exactly where I stand. I know who the smartest person is in the room. It generally aint me. I am humble and I know where the $ comes from.

I have played significantly larger than 2/5. I have not played 5/t or bigger in at least 3 years. Why - I do not need the headache. I know exactly where I stand and I dont need to show off how big my Dick is.

I am also a machine. I can and have cranked out 2k hour years year in and year out. I dont tilt I am a fuggin robot at the table. I get nuked - I dont take it personally, I move on. When the games are good its on. I will stay focused and work harder than any one in the room. Why - I have to cuz I have a family to provide for.

Can you keep a level head and crank out the hours when everything goes wrong and you get your ass handed to you day in and day out? It seems like you cant (not an attack just an observation). And it will happen I promise.

As I initially said I have seen countless dudes come and go from the scene. Many were significantly smarter than I. I maintain a great life balance b/c the casino is such a nasty soul sucking environment. Balance seems like another major issue for you

Gamboolin has afforded me a nice little life. However, The landscape is not the same as when I began. The glass ceiling is not only lower but thicker. I advise all people that want to do it not to. Its a great side gig but a very difficult full time thing

best of luck

First of all a realistic, generous estimate for you is about 10bb/100, i.e. a good llsnl grinder. Secondly 5% risk of ruin is only good if you can easily redeposit, an actual pro will want roughly double that. If you want to know why, look at all the online crushers with 6bb+ winrates who have gone on 50+ bi downswings. Thirdly, pokerdope underestimates variance heavily because even a little bit of tilt will skew the risk of ruin dramatically.

Since a conservative estimate for winrate is the only kind of estimate that is not completely ******ed when considering the size of your bankroll, lets use that. Lets say you are winning at 7bb/100 (this could easily be even less). Now you need ~20bi for 5% RoR, but it's your life roll so make that 40bi, so that's 12k that you need to be properly rolled to play 1/3. Now if you don't mind busting your roll and redepositing then 20bi is technically fine, aside from the mental effect of the swings.

10bb/hr is achievable in good LLSNL games (of course, only by the top top players), which is more like 25bb/100.

The rest of your post still stands though, OP has clearly never experienced the abyss.

Statistically speaking, OP is going to be closer to an average reg than he is a crusher. Most people over-estimate their skill level. I think average numbers should be quoted, not upper bounds and "generous estimates", otherwise OP believes he belongs in that category when he almost certainly does not.

Yeah just to clarify i mean 10bb is my guess of an average winning reg, which i call "good" to mean that skilled players will have such a win rate.

Been avoiding this one but your recent post seemed sincere so I'll respond. I know none of this will get through because I too was once a young adult male.

The estimate of (5) 5/10 games in the entire state on a Saturday sounds about right but could even be too high. There may only be 3-4 for at least half of the day.

But 6betme was talking about 10/20. There may only be 1-2 10/25 games in the whole state for maybe 6 hours on Sat and possibly a few hours on Sunday. Its completely impossible to get even remotely close to 2000 hours of high stakes games in per year. His assumptions about just about everything related to poker are completely irrational.

And now that's you in your avatar?

Gkudostoyourdoctor,imoG

Actually Avaratia I am not a unicorn. I am a jackass. I have been tryin to get outta gamboolin since 1997. Every time I think Im out...they drag me back. Maybe THIS time it will stick

Gg I didn’t think you had it in you. I chuckled.

This post needs more love

Subbed to thread for obvious behavioral economics and psychology purposes.