Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals

07-23-2018 , 05:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Do you really still not get it? At this point it doesn't matter what path nets you the most money "in the long run." You have months left, maybe half a year if you're lucky. You simply will not make it to the "long run" before your expenses exceed your income and you bust. I don't recall your exact monthly expenses except your food and entertainment costs were ridiculous. But let's suppose you make 10 dollars an hour (optimistic right now IMO). If your monthly expenses are 1500 dollars you need to play 150 hours a month. Note this won't actually grow your bankroll so in reality you need to play more like 200 hours a month. Furthermore you aren't getting 10 dollars an hour but some unknown expected value. To be safe you should play even more hours so the variance levels out faster. Good luck putting in that kind of volume.

The only reason your live play has been "high variance" is because you play an inappropriately aggressive and bad strategy, jump stakes frequently, and play drunk. And you can't sit there for an hour without deciding to 3 bet A7s or some nonsense. Who cares what the fish say? Ignore them, tell them yes you're waiting for Aces, you're just waiting for a friend to finish a tournament, you're waiting for 92s, or an endless number of other lies. Yeah I've sat there at 1/2 and had people call me "aces" because I got aces twice and made it to showdown, and more than once had the fish comment on me not playing a hand in X hours. Lots of nonsense. Whatever. I'm there to take their money. They can say what they like.

Here's the reality you're in.

In the short run, you need to start making significant income to cover your monthly expenses and grow your bankroll. You have little to no chance of making enough online to cover your expenses before you go broke. Your best case scenario online is you get stuck grinding obscenely long sessions to cover the monthly expenses. Your bankroll grows extremely slowly, and you either get stuck grinding 50NL forever or you at some point decide to jump stakes underrolled and lose most of your bankroll.

In the medium run, well...it doesn't matter because you'll never get there if you don't quickly start making income. No point dreaming about 5/T when you don't have the discipline to beat 1/3. You think it will be easier because it's more similar to online play? Gotta move up in stakes where they respect your raises, right? Give me a break man.

Beating 1/3 live is really simple. It's not easy because it requires patience and discipline but it is very simple, and if you actually wanted to and made the necessary adjustments you could quite easily be a big winner in this game.

I'm really not trying to be overly negative here. I just feel someone needs to slap you in the face and say "wake the f up" before there's nothing you can do about it.

And again as others have said countless times getting a part time job is probably the best solution. Then you can focus on live or online or whatever you want without the frequent worry of covering your nut. But I get it. Work sucks. However I think after a month or two of grinding 150+ hours a month you'll realize full time grinding is no picnic either.

------

I'll ask again, why on earth do you think 25BB cash games or SNGs are solved? THEY ARE NOT. Read this article on Upswing Poker

https://upswingpoker.com/gto-myths-g...onception/amp/
+1

OP, listen to this man.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 05:28 AM
You guys putting in far more effort than OP deserves..
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 05:56 AM
Quote:
I completely disagree.
Shocking

Quote:
It's not a requirement to know your ranges perfectly to become a live pro.
Do you ever even wait 10 seconds to see if you have understood what people post. I wasn't talking about live, and neither were you. We were both talking about online, fast poker ffs

And both of your replies completely miss my point, which is...(although fn why I am bothering)...

In order to become a pro, you have to put the work in on and off the felt first.

Developing your online ranges is a pretty basic thing you do at 5nl online, not 50 nl online. Unless of course you have money to burn. Which, if you did, you be playing 1/3 live like everyone is telling because you are way short of the skillz needed to beat 50nl online and its not even close. Every post you make confirms it.

Apologies for the bold folks, trying work round ops comprehension deficit.

Quote:
You guys putting in far more effort than OP deserves..
100%...I think it us (me) who need counselling now. I guess ops utter b/s reflection post sucked us back in. What a load of bull that was.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 06:29 AM
I mean OP is the guy telling winning live players that it's difficult not to play bad hands UTG just because you've had to fold for an hour and people are saying you're tight. It's like when a child disagrees with you about how to drive a car or something. Hard to take it seriously.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 08:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatboy54
100%...I think it us (me) who need counselling now. I guess ops utter b/s reflection post sucked us back in. What a load of bull that was.
I think people like the underdog/longshot. What an epic thread it would be if OP turned it around and became a crusher.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 09:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
No plans yet. It's just something I'm considering in the future.
Ok thanks, let us know when you're streaming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lordkjun
Dude....you let that comment you into tilt playing A7? That's a standard comment designed to tilt you. If you're that thin skinned then the live tables will eat you alive. Just pop back with "not just aces, SUITED aces!" or some dumb **** like that.

It isn't fun to fold for an hour or so, but it isn't difficult. Folding pre is one of the easiest things to do once you learn some discipline.

Sent from my LGMS631 using Tapatalk
I think it's just inherently part of OP's personality that he has to raise/3bet marginal holdings and make aggressive -EV moves to push people off hands. He's been told countless times to tighten up and stay disciplined, even as his bankroll has diminished, but he won't change. He literally can't help himself from doing it. Which makes me think it's just a deeply-ingrained, unalterable characteristic trait that makes him play this way.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 10:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
Ok thanks, let us know when you're streaming.

I think it's just inherently part of OP's personality that he has to raise/3bet marginal holdings and make aggressive -EV moves to push people off hands. He's been told countless times to tighten up and stay disciplined, even as his bankroll has diminished, but he won't change. Which makes me think it's just a deeply-ingrained, unalterable characteristic trait that makes him play this way.
Nothing is unalterable. He just needs to focus that.

He's prob too loose right now, but tighten that range by 30% downto 70% of his current range + lowever cbet on 3bet pot by 10% and he's just right, just right SLAG pr0 taking all the +EV spots and maximizing payouts w/ his real value

Quote:
Originally Posted by johndoe82
I think people like the underdog/longshot. What an epic thread it would be if OP turned it around and became a crusher.
I actually haven't read the thread for a month or mth and a half. Did he lose a part of his BR? What happened?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
Had a really sh*tty session of 50nlz today. 4 things kept happening:
1) None of my bluffs got through
2) None of my value bets got paid
3) I always seemed to run into a slightly better hand, like running QQ into KK on a Jxxxx board or running Tx into AT on a 9JQKx board.
4) I seemed to face an unusually high amount of 4betting preflop, especially when I had marginal hands like A6s or A9s. I folded to every 4bet except the one time I had AKo when I 5bet jammed and lost the flip against QQ. I don't know if people were just playing back at me or if they happened to just have it every time, but I think that I faced a 4bet about 50% of the time when I 3bet pre.

Pretty demotivating to win a bunch at 25nl and then give it all back at 50nl. I wish that variance would go my way at 50nl and go against me at 25nl, not the other way around.



I make no promises about my long-term win rate. I make no promises that I'll be playing in a +EV manner either. I'll just do my best and whatever happens happens.
Just speculating here, but seems to me that since you have such a high 3b % (think you said like 16%) your opponents are figuring out that you 3b light too often (like A6 and A9) and are exploiting that by 4b you more.

Mabye lower your 3b frequency to fewer/stronger hands.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EPTchips
I actually haven't read the thread for a month or mth and a half. Did he lose a part of his BR? What happened?
Better question is what didn't he do. Let's see...started with a decent roll and after committing repeatedly to grinding 1/3 live for lots of hours instead typically puts in a handful of hours of 1/3 per week and spews off the rest in 2/5, 5/T, PLO, 200NL, blackjack, roulette, or just wasting time playing video games. He spent ludicrous amounts of money on food (like 40 bucks a day IIRC) and entertainment, planned vacations when he clearly could not afford it, bought his GF a 900 dollar phone. Frequently drank while grinding.

Just generally ignoring the advice of everyone in the thread and playing beyond his bankroll, spending far more than he was earning, which many predicted would land him in bustoville very quickly. And he's not quite there yet but down to less than 3k AUD after a day of 5/T and 200NL. That's life roll and bankroll. At this point OP makes the brilliant decision to deposit all remaining funds into online site for playing 25NL and 50NL, where he has no proof he's even a winning player, and even if he is has close to zero chance of making enough money to cover expenses.

I don't know why I keep trying to convince OP he's about to crash and burn. Guess it's like trying to talk someone down from jumping off a bridge. It probably isn't going to work but you feel like crap if you do nothing and just watch them jump.

Still hoping he turns it around but the odds do not look good.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
Had a really sh*tty session of 50nlz today. 4 things kept happening:
1) None of my bluffs got through
2) None of my value bets got paid
3) I always seemed to run into a slightly better hand, like running QQ into KK on a Jxxxx board or running Tx into AT on a 9JQKx board.
4) I seemed to face an unusually high amount of 4betting preflop, especially when I had marginal hands like A6s or A9s. I folded to every 4bet except the one time I had AKo when I 5bet jammed and lost the flip against QQ. I don't know if people were just playing back at me or if they happened to just have it every time, but I think that I faced a 4bet about 50% of the time when I 3bet pre.

Pretty demotivating to win a bunch at 25nl and then give it all back at 50nl. I wish that variance would go my way at 50nl and go against me at 25nl, not the other way around.
Have you considered that maybe it isn't "variance" but rather the players are better at 50nl than 25nl?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
It's actually not as easy as you think.

Imagine you've been card dead, you haven't played a single hand in over 1 hour, people on the table are literally making comments like "he's just waiting for Aces", then finally, you're dealt a hand like A7s in early position. You're going to be tempted to open this, even knowing that it's barely a winning hand.
When you finally accept that you have a gambling problem, save this post to remind you why you shouldn't go back to the tables.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Better question is what didn't he do. Let's see...started with a decent roll and after committing repeatedly to grinding 1/3 live for lots of hours instead typically puts in a handful of hours of 1/3 per week and spews off the rest in 2/5, 5/T, PLO, 200NL, blackjack, roulette, or just wasting time playing video games. He spent ludicrous amounts of money on food (like 40 bucks a day IIRC) and entertainment, planned vacations when he clearly could not afford it, bought his GF a 900 dollar phone. Frequently drank while grinding.

Just generally ignoring the advice of everyone in the thread and playing beyond his bankroll, spending far more than he was earning, which many predicted would land him in bustoville very quickly. And he's not quite there yet but down to less than 3k AUD after a day of 5/T and 200NL. That's life roll and bankroll. At this point OP makes the brilliant decision to deposit all remaining funds into online site for playing 25NL and 50NL, where he has no proof he's even a winning player, and even if he is has close to zero chance of making enough money to cover expenses.

I don't know why I keep trying to convince OP he's about to crash and burn. Guess it's like trying to talk someone down from jumping off a bridge. It probably isn't going to work but you feel like crap if you do nothing and just watch them jump.

Still hoping he turns it around but the odds do not look good.
Lol, i just cant help laughing by this post. Its like world record of poor decision making.

That being said, OP is on a steady road to busto even sooner than i would have believed when he actually had a pretty healthy 7-8K roll to work with.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
It's actually not as easy as you think.

Imagine you've been card dead, you haven't played a single hand in over 1 hour, people on the table are literally making comments like "he's just waiting for Aces", then finally, you're dealt a hand like A7s in early position. You're going to be tempted to open this, even knowing that it's barely a winning hand.
if this is hard for you, you definitely arent cut out for live poker.

You should do a Tommy Angelo style session where you go in and fold EVERYTHING for 2 hours. Doesnt matter if its Aces and a giant whale in front of you open shoves. Look at your card and fold them. Do it for 2 hours, then get up from the table and go home.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
Currently 4 people. Me and girlfriend in one room. 2 Thai girls in the other room. And 2 mattresses in the living room that are currently not being used.
Cripes, 3 pages later and not one suggestion of brothel / rub + tug / pimping?

Gareyoupeopleeventrying?G
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 04:22 PM
He can't discipline himself....how's he gonna keep some hos who don't speak English in line?
#pimpinainteasy

Sent from my LGMS631 using Tapatalk
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lordkjun
He can't discipline himself....how's he gonna keep some hos who don't speak English in line?
#pimpinainteasy

Sent from my LGMS631 using Tapatalk
LOL


Quote:
Originally Posted by mirage01
You guys putting in far more effort than OP deserves..
Also this.

Honestly seems like OP hasn't changed one bit
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 07:19 PM
I don't understand how it's so hard to keep discipline at live poker, if there's such a high likelihood you win a massive pot when you hit a monster hand. That's a dream scenario to be in.

I would understand losing your patience in a nit-filled game where people aren't paying you off, but if it's full of calling station fish, it's so easy to remain patient.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-23-2018 , 07:28 PM
Whiskey, chill, start a conversation about anything or nothing.....it makes the lull pass quicker when you're card dead.

A big part of live 1/2 or 1/3 is keeping the table fun. When people are having fun, they gamble more. Be the fun, not the gamble....the fish don't need to know you know what you're doing.

Sent from my LGMS631 using Tapatalk
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 12:22 AM
The real question is why are people still giving this guy advice? He hasn't listened to a single word and ignored every shred of sound advice given. You can't make a person change and they won't do it until THEY want to. My guess is it will take rock bottom before he takes a serious look at the decisions he's making.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 02:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
I've experienced massive negative variance both live and online. Online I've had downswings last 6 weeks (about 200k hands) and at the time I was the #2 ranked player in my game on sharkscope. Live I've had one 10BI downswing despite a 10BB/hr winrate. Negative variance is real and we all know it, most of us having experienced far worse than you have.

The problem is you post hand after hand where you aren't getting sucked out or coolered so much as just making massively stupid decisions and playing beyond your bankroll. It isn't negative variance to take a huge chunk of your life roll and play 5/T. It's bad decision making. The one big winning session you had recently actually involved you repeatedly sucking out on others IIRC.

So given 9/10 of your hand histories are just played abominably, one can propose two possibilities and decide which is more likely.

1) 6BM has run extremely bad since starting this thread.

2) 6BM is a losing player who for some reason sees himself as a crusher.

The second scenario is just far more likely, particularly given your penchant for denial and delusion in all areas of life such as whether you have problems with alcohol, gambling, and financial planning. If nothing else it's extremely unlikely you're a big winner in these games. Perhaps you're a slight winner who's experienced some modest negative variance, but doubtful anything that would knock down a crusher.

People only want to kick you when you're down because despite your entitled and egotistical attitude, many seasoned pros have poured countless hours into giving you extremely good and specific feedback and advice, which you've consistently ignored. Do you think people enjoy trying to help you only to see you shrug off everything they say? Yeah there's a little schadenfreude in seeing you get what you deserve for thinking you have all the answers.

If I'm going to waste my time giving you advice you ignore and as predicted when you ignore the advice you fail, the only silver lining to the situation is maybe you'll learn some humility and next time you try going pro actually have a plan and value the input of others more experienced than you.

You'll probably see this post as just me kicking you when you're down, but I hope over time you can gain some perspective and look back at this thread and realize most people were just trying to help you. And for what it's worth, I do think you have the potential to be a professional poker player. You have the raw talent. You just lack everything else: the discipline, the humility, the patience, and the courage to confront your addiction problems. I hope one day you deal with these issues. Maybe then you'll have a shot.

this is an awesome post.

I unsubbed a week ago out of frustration of the things you describe. I checked back in because I've met OP irl and am disappointed but am not at all surprised this is going the way it's going.

6 - when are you in Sydney this weekend? I'll be in the room on Weds, Fri and hopefully Sat
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 02:38 AM
Any insight into OP in RL? is he clearly as degen/******ed as he comes across here?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 04:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mirage01
Any insight into OP in RL? is he clearly as degen/******ed as he comes across here?
we had a 15 min chat. Nice guy, quite quiet. Looks a little like Jeff Daniels in Dumb and Dumber! He asked me a couple of questions about the high stakes scene, action etc and seemed very impressed with it, so I picked up a small read that he loved the action a bit too much but nothing ott

I did make a few comments about my friend squid face who I admire for being a consistent long time pro, talking about his good professional habits... keeping regular and consistent hours, playing the same stakes in the same room, never drinking or doing massages etc, definitely staying away from the pits. But it obviously didn't get internalised

but that was it and he's a nice guy...just one who has made a load of really naive decisions
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 06:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
6 - when are you in Sydney this weekend? I'll be in the room on Weds, Fri and hopefully Sat
TBH, I hope you don't see him in the poker room. At this point, he's even realized that he no longer has the bankroll to play 1/3 without significant risk of ruin. I can see between the pressure of having his gf there and seeing a 2+2er watch him decide he's going to prove he's capable of crushing 2/5 and going busto away from home. It isn't so much for him, but his gf doesn't deserve that.

I remember the night I decided I was no longer going to be a semi-pro. I was at a 2/5 table and a guy was just spewing stacks. His wife/gf was behind him crying and begging him to leave because he was playing with what was left of their money and their rent payment was due that Monday. He proceeded to lose it in a couple stupid plays. He finally left the table when he had no more money. That was the point I knew I didn't have what it takes to be a poker pro.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 06:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
TBH, I hope you don't see him in the poker room. At this point, he's even realized that he no longer has the bankroll to play 1/3 without significant risk of ruin. I can see between the pressure of having his gf there and seeing a 2+2er watch him decide he's going to prove he's capable of crushing 2/5 and going busto away from home. It isn't so much for him, but his gf doesn't deserve that.

I remember the night I decided I was no longer going to be a semi-pro. I was at a 2/5 table and a guy was just spewing stacks. His wife/gf was behind him crying and begging him to leave because he was playing with what was left of their money and their rent payment was due that Monday. He proceeded to lose it in a couple stupid plays. He finally left the table when he had no more money. That was the point I knew I didn't have what it takes to be a poker pro.

that's horrible.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 06:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
I remember the night I decided I was no longer going to be a semi-pro. I was at a 2/5 table and a guy was just spewing stacks. His wife/gf was behind him crying and begging him to leave because he was playing with what was left of their money and their rent payment was due that Monday. He proceeded to lose it in a couple stupid plays. He finally left the table when he had no more money. That was the point I knew I didn't have what it takes to be a poker pro.
Grim. Obviously the guy was the main culprit but I can imagine what she felt looking at the people around the table, eyeing up her rent money and licking their chops while her husband flushes their life down the toilet.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-24-2018 , 06:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
Grim. Obviously the guy was the main culprit but I can imagine what she felt looking at the people around the table, eyeing up her rent money and licking their chops while her husband flushes their life down the toilet.
do you think this is what 6betme might do?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote

      
m