My poker goals this year are:
1) Make 10k profit playing 50nl online
2) Make 10k profit playing $1/$3 live

It's mid February and so far I am:
1) $600 down online
2) $1300 down live

Literally every session I've played this year has been a losing session except for one session, where I broke even.

I don't think I'm playing that badly. I'll admit that I've made a few mistakes here and there, but for the most part, I just seem to be getting constantly coolered. I'm actually pretty good at getting away from hands when I'm beat, like I'll know I have to fold my TPTK on the turn when someone raises me, but it still costs me a third of my stack nonetheless, and it happens so often.

In addition to this, my friends have been extremely discouraging. "You're 24 years old, isn't it time you give up on your poker dreams and get a real job?" I want to prove them wrong so badly but it's just not working out.

Any advice, support, criticism or anything for me?

Fwiw, I've been playing online poker for 3 years. During my first year, I lost $1100. My second year I lost $100. My third year I won $1600. So I'm still lifetime up $400 at online poker (and that includes the downswing I had recently), but not by much.

As for live poker, I honestly can't say whether I'm lifetime up or not, since I haven't been keeping proper records over the years, but I assume that I'm approximately breakeven, maybe slightly up.

Sorry for the triple post, but I've been thinking a lot lately and I believe that the main thing that's making this downswing so unbearable is the discouragement I've faced from friends. If people were more supportive of my dreams, then I think that I could withstand the downswings, but when people tell me that I'm destined to fail and then I try to prove them wrong but they end up being right... that hurts so badly.

A) Who cares what other people think?

B) Download a poker ledger app and track each session. If you're trying to track progress, goals, or failures, than you shouldn't be assuming anything. Use the
facts.

C) +10k/yr is a big jump from a 3 year +400. Maybe try something more attainable and less daunting like +2k.

D) People who don't play a lot of poker, or people who are casual players playing for fun won't understand substantial amounts of time spent in a casino. They'll see it as a problem, and if you're not profiting, maybe it is. Your bankroll should be all the encouragement you need. There's not a lot of hugs in the poker room.

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After reading some of your recent strat posts I can tell you that you are trying to make some very advanced plays that you are probably not ready for yet. Those types of plays (like raising 65s in MP) are very profitable if you do it correctly but very high variance and -EV if you dont). If I were you I would stick to more ABC play until you perfect it and then start slowly adding a few more deceptive plays into your game.

Losing money because you're 3betting kqo,ajo and 53s. Cut that out and start playing well post and it's very easy to make money in these 1/3 games.

I generally wouldn't set profit goals. They're not actionable. Of course you want to profit, but you should set goals that impact your behavior. For instance "Average x number of hands online 6 days a week" is an actionable goal. "Don't call 3-bets out of position" or "Don't bluff-catch river against non-maniacs" are also actionable goals. Setting out a range pre-flop and sticking with it is an actionable goal.

What do you typically do then, in a $1/$3 game, facing a $12 raise with a hand like KQo or AJo?

If you flat it will go 5ways which makes it very difficult to get value postflop and very easy to lose a big pot against sets, straights, flushes and 2pr.

Folding is okay but seems nitty. Do you fold?

Depends who raised
What position they are in
What position Im in

Ect

how are you playing online if you live in Australia?

I will say that beating 50nl online is way tougher than beating 1/3 live. Not even in the same ballpark. Different game, different playing style etc as well but beating 50nl is tougher than beating 2/5

Yes fold, cold calling in these games is the nut low, same as 3betting and building a big pot with garbage hands.

In saying that though you should be isolating sometimes with kqo,ajo, from the hj/cutoff/btn after limpers, that is assuming they're capped (which 99% of them are)

NL50 online and 1/3 live are different games. Your strategy that works at NL50 won't work as well at NL - but 3betting AJ and KQ are probably fine - you will get called by worse hands. Biggest thing in live poker is knowing your donks.

Some people it's fine to call them down with top pair - others it's an easy fold. I am very good at reading fish, which is why I can bet super thin for value and expect to get called by worse. That extra $100 river bet is a huge win over the long run.

I've been telling you that you have fancy play syndrome in other threads but you won't listen.

You're just not very good at making money in the games you play, accept this. Your friends are right, do something better with your life.

Those goals are pointless. I don't know why so many people set goals that are purely result-based. You have no direct control over your results and you just set yourself up for disappointment when you don't hit them.

What you have to do is review your game to identify leaks, then set goals oriented towards plugging those leaks. Focus on the process, not the results.

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Agree with Kelvis, you're trying to hard. Be more patient and pick better spots. Choose the Fold option a little more often instead of 3-betting.

It's end of March now and I'm $300 up live for the year now after going on a 1.6k upswing in 2 sessions. My play style hasn't changed at all. So I'm convinced that I just ran incredibly bad at the start of the year.

So you were down money for 90% of the year, you sunrun it back to basically breakeven and the conclusion you draw is that you were just running bad? Poker is not dead after all.

The upswing continues! I'm now $3100 up for the year after a few incredible sessions at 1/3 and 2/5. More than 30% of the way towards my live poker goal whilst less than 30% of the year is over

I'm well above breakeven now. I was 1.3k down at my worst and now I'm 3.1k up. The fact that I followed a 1.3k downswing with a 4.4k upswing should say something about my ability.

Also, I play significantly less during downswings. I'll play on average about 5hrs per week when I'm running bad vs 20hrs per week when I'm running good, so that explains why I'll spend longer portions of the year downswinging than upswinging.

And I just feel that I am outplaying other people in general. I'm extracting thin value when I'm ahead, getting away cheaply when I'm behind, bluffing sparingly yet at the right moments, etc. I've definitely sucked out on a few players during this 4.4k upswing, but I got sucked out a lot during my 1.3k downswing too, so it kind of evens out.

Upswings are so good for improving one's confidence and restoring faith

Lol 1.3k downswing is running incredibly bad? I'm fairly sure you could run worse. 1.3k at 1/3 shouldn't really be effecting tilt or how often you're playing

Been running insanely hot lately. Been on a 6.2k upswing after 8 winning sessions in a row, playing a mix of 1/2, 1/3 and 2/5. Currently 4.9k up for the year, so almost halfway towards my live poker goals

It's amazing how much people underestimate the swings at low stakes live poker. To immediately go from a 1.3k downswing to a 6.2k upswing, with no bumps in my graph at all, is pretty emotional.

I need to prepare myself mentally for swings like this in the future because I'm sure they'll happen again soon.

I had this idea in my head that grinding up 10k profit would almost be a smooth, constantly growing experience. Now I almost feel like a little bit of variance can take anyone there. It's weird to think about.

ignore them OP. keep working hard and it will pay off

Thanks for your support, Jim.

I think I'm going to make this thread my official goal thread. I know that it's very different to most threads in the PG&C subforum but I kind of like it. There's a sense of reality kicking in when the very first post is me at rock bottom. It's like me in my most genuine form. And it gives me a harsh reminder of what a downswing feels like and how this contrasts with an upswing.

If you really want to improve don't be one of those people that shuts his ears to sound advice. At the moment for example you are totally confusing upswings and downswings with short term (almost) daily variance and are utterly obsessed with short term results. Good players don't do this.

They focus on their game. As others have said 50nl online and 1/3 live are completely different playing environments, each requiring very different strats and strengths. No reason why you should not get good at both, but a good place start would be posting hands instead of largely meaningless daily results.

GL

Just went on a 1.2k downswing last night playing mostly $2/$5. I'll admit that I wasn't playing my A-game and I think that I did get outplayed in a few spots. I lost a 2.2k pot with trips top kicker vs a boat, which was a semi-cooler, but I may have been able to make an exploitable fold against the river x/r. I'm not sure. I also got triple barrel bluffed off an overpair in a 3bet pot when the opponent showed K high. I would've scooped a 1.1k pot if I had the balls to call that river bet. I was tanking for a long time but I ultimately made the wrong decision. To top it off, I moved down to 1/3 and got coolered twice there, like 3bet jamming JJ for $125, having a fish cold-call me with ATs and getting there.

Oh well, if there ever was a time to have a downswing, then this would be it, I guess. This is one of the few times when I can actually afford to lose 1.2k without being financially crippled lol. So currently 3.7k up for the year now.

Thanks for the advice. I do think though, without trying to sound arrogant, that I'm not too far off beating 50nl online. A close friend of mine is absolutely crushing 200nl online, making almost 10bb/100, and I'm getting some coaching off him. He told me that he thinks I'm capable of beating 200nl by the end of the year if I'm willing to put in the work, so that really inspires me.

I've posted a bunch of 1/3 and 2/5 HH's in the LLSNL subforum, so I don't want this thread to just be identical to those posts, but maybe I'll showcase a few interesting hands that I've come across.

Overbetting for thin value:

2/5 against solid young reg. We have a lot of history together: he sees me as an aggro/bluffy guy and he's more than willing to fight back.

Hero is dealt KK (no spade)
Hero raises $20 CO
Villain calls $20 BB

Flop ($38) is Js Ts 3c

Villain checks
Hero bets $30
Villain calls $30

Turn ($92) is Th

Villain leads $25
Hero calls $25

River ($137) is 8d
Board is JT3T8 and flush missed

Villain checks
Hero jams $375
Villains calls $375.

My kings are good.