cliffs on last 1 month?

6b balancing his range:


Come on man, the biggest winners in your games aren't balanced at all.....
The balancing thing always matters, when you are out of excuses.
You think you have an idea of GTO, when you clearly don't. If you would, you'd realise how a GTO-style won't make you the most money in those games AINEC.
How full of yourself do you have to be, to think you can just dupe people on this forum, that actually know what they're talking about?

On the plus side, it's actually a great thing that we have different preferences. If everyone preferred living in an apartment to living in a van, then the cost of renting an apartment would go up. So I'm happy that you disagree with me on this. It saves me money.

I love how people come up with the most preposterous theories haha. A reg bumhunting another reg... seems logical.

I did that for simplicity because otherwise the maths gets quite messy... feel free to do your own calculations in this thread. I just don't think that it's an extremely -EV play, if it's even -EV at all.

Poker has been going super well. Been averaging over $100/hr profit over the past month. Had a 1 week trip to Sydney which was essentially free because I made profit in the poker room there. Now back in Melbourne to grind more 2/5 NL mostly and slowly pay off the debt whilst building up a bankroll.

I never said I played a perfect GTO strategy. In fact, one of the reasons why there's such a huge discrepancy between my 3betting range and my defends against 4bets is done exploitatively: because I know the population severely under 4bets, so I can't be punished much for 3betting light.

Against someone that 3bets 12% vs UTG open and 2 calls I'd argue he is the ideal fish.

btw lol he 3bets more than UTG opens.

Somehow he’s an ideal fish because he 3bets too wide but I’m a fish for 4betting light against him.

Yeah I thought the shove was terrible before OP gave the range that he 3bets, which blows my wildest estimate. After that I said the shove prints money against such a spewtard.

actually my preference is a luxury condo all to myself, which drives up your rent

Your trip wasn’t free you would have more money if you stayed home. You aren’t in any kind of financial situation to be taking vacations, even “working vacations”, and I use the term working very loosely here.

LOL here we go again!

Spend $1000 on a trip
Lose $1000s playing pit games
Lose $550 in a turbo tournament
Make $10 playing cash

Basically the trip was a freeroll, not many people get free vacations like this.

exactly. op could have won money, and that's what matters

Econ 101, day 1, lesson 1: "the is no such thing as a free lunch." Was written on the board when the class walked in. Easily the most important concept that was covered that year

But you are not a reg though. Nearly every hand history you post show's you playing very fishy/poorly.

6 followers,

A lot of you seem oddly angry/irritated. Why?

Imagine if this thread were in LVL and titled “pizza driver with $5k gonna live it up as long as I can!” Everyone would love it and cheer him on.

Wouldn’t you rather hear about him taking shots at some wild and crazy deep stack 10/25/50NL games rather than grinding 2/5 with solid TAG fundamentals?

I for one am bummed he didn’t run it up in Sydney or hit a big tourney score. That would have made this thread a lot more interesting. Hopefully his rungood continues and he starts playing bigger and deeper soon. I want to read about more $2k, $3k, and much bigger pots!

Having said that, there were two things that kind of irritated me in the Sydney trip report. 6, maybe you can explain:

1) wtf was that stupid 2/3-6/9/12 etc straddling? At the very least, double each straddle, so 6/12/24. But if allowed, just have some fun and start with a straddle to 20 or something.

2) iirc you bet $200 at a hand of blackjack and lost, then bet $600 and won. How do you not press it at least one more time for like $800 or $1000? At the very least, bet your $400 profit one time!

The key to degenning is pressing. If you don’t press, you’re simply guaranteed to lose over time. But if you press when you’re hot, you can win huge amounts. That’s a very important lesson to learn.

Here’s a fun blackjack gamble that is super fun. Give it a try next time you’re up a little.

Take a couple grand to a $5k max table.
Bet $100.
If you lose, bet $100 again.
If you win, let it ride until you hit table max. Some pit bosses will let you slide and bet $6400, while others are sticklers about $5k. If they let you bet $6400, do it. But if they limit you to $5000 after winning the $3200 bet, stop there.

That’s it. Go til you either win the final bet or you’re out of money. Win 6 hands in a row and you have $6400. Even if it takes you 20
shots to do it, that’s over $4000 profit.

Once in a blue moon you’ll have a split/double type scenario at $1600 level that goes badly, but that’s very rare.

accidental post before completion

this guy lived in a van in my village for 15 years until he died a few months ago.

https://vimeo.com/229802433?fbclid=I...5xVN3sgO2Q4qtc

he also only worked 10-30 hours a week

Yeah this isn't right. Bear with me here as these EV calculations while not difficult are quite tedious. Skip to the end if you can't follow it. I do have a degree in mathematics and checked over this carefully for errors, but it's always possible something got by.

TL;dr - The shove is actually really bad.

I'll walk through why, starting with simpler calculations and adding variables and adjusting ranges as we go on.

Let's assume the guys in the middle always fold. They don't and it affects the EV calculation drastically but let's assume it, why not. Let's also assume you 100% squeeze an UTG raise from MP the hands you listed like AJo and T9s and A6s, which if you actually did is pretty absurd, but let's assume it.

Your combinatorics work is incorrect. You squeeze 123 combos. You defend 27. Therefore you call 27/123 - .2195 and fold 96/123 = .7805. When you defend, the equities are

*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****29.31%**28.18%***1.13%*{ AsTs }
UTG+1**70.69%**69.56%***1.13%*{ QQ+, AKs, AKo }

There are four outcomes if the middle guys always fold, which again, they don't.

A) You fold and DL wins (15 + 15 + 15 + 90) - 15 = 125
B) You call and DL wins (15 + 15 + 15 + 570) - 15 = 600
C) You call and DL loses 570
D) You call and you both tie, and DL wins (15 + 15 + 15)/2 - 15 = 7.50

A happens with frequency .7805
B happens with frequency .2195*.2818 = .06185
C happens with frequency .2195*.6956 = .1526
D happens with frequency .2195*(.0113+.0113) = .004961

So the EV of the shove in fantasy land where you squeeze 10% from MP and middle guys always fold is

EV(shove) = .7805*125 + .06185*600 - .1526*570 + .004961*7.50

EV(shove) = 47.73

Not 56. I've also neglected tipping in all scenarios, which may or may not be relevant as I don't know if in Australian games you are expected to tip, but if you are the EV is a couple dollars less.

So under your assumptions the shove is okay, though calling in position with a hand that plays well multiway vs an aggrotard (you) who will triple barrel most of his range is almost certainly more +EV, and we can assume the other players usually call once the whale calls. I won't attempt an EV calculation 5+-ways at this juncture as there are too many variables but if DL flats and it goes 5+ ways he is playing ATs in position vs you (vs everyone if CO and BTN fold which they usually will) in a 450+ pot where 5 ways, given your squeezing range and some typical ranges for the other guys he has about 20% raw equity in position vs. some very bad players. If DL flats and the others fold, even better, as he now has 48% raw equity with a hand with good robust equity, in position, vs. an aggrotard (you).

If we come back to planet earth and put your squeezing range at more like 7% (still too wide, but probably about what you play), say, these 87 combos: JJ+,ATs+,KQs,KhJh,KsJs,KcJc,QhJh,QsJs,QcJc,KhTh,Ks Ts,KcTc,QhTh,QsTs,QcTc,JhTh,JsTs,JcTc,Ac9c,Tc9c,Ac 8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,AQo+,AdJh,AdJs,Ad Jc,AhJd,AsJd,AcJd,KdQh,KdQs,KdQc,KhQd,KsQd,KcQd

Now we have the EV(shove) = (60/87)*125 + (27/87*.2818)*600 - (27/87*.6956)*570 + (27/87*.004961)*7.50 = 15.64

We are still assuming everyone else always folds, which again, they do not.

Another question is, if you think DL is correct so shove this wide, why the **** would you only continue with QQ+ AK? You're only ~100BB deep, are you really folding JJ? TT? AQs? You 3-bet A7s but fold JJ? Getting (570 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 90) : 480 = 1.46875:1? I'm skeptical. You only need to win 40.5%. If you guess DL is shipping something like TT+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+, TT has 42.66% equity and AQs has 43.34%. Let's suppose you call TT+, AQs+, AK. Now you have 39 combos to call and

EV(shove) = (48/87)*125 + (39/87*.2968)*600 - (39/87*.6315)*570 + (39/87*.0718)*7.50 = -12.32

We are STILL assuming UTG never calls which is ridiculous. He's probably raising something like 99+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo, and open limping hands like 88 and QTo. Maybe not, "whale" is such a meaningless term but I'm just taking it to mean a typical bad LP player. He could be much tighter or much looser. But if he is tighter he has more premiums to call the 4 bet with and if he is looser he calls the 4 bet lighter, so let's just guess it's these 76 combos. And let's assume he calls JJ+ AK. That's 33/76 = .4342, so clearly this guy has a large effect on the EV of a 4 bet. I'm going to ignore the other guys flatting KK+ to trap, which happens from time to time but is too complicated to calculate and doesn't have a huge effect on the result like ignoring UTG does.

So let's see what happens if UTG calls sometimes. Back to your original scenario where we had the four outcomes A through D. I'm going to ignore ties for the 3-way calculation as it is complex enough already. Now we have outcome A, both fold, B, you call and DL wins, C, you call and DL loses, D, whale calls and you fold and DL wins, E, whale calls and you fold and DL loses, F, whale calls and you call and DL wins, and G, whale calls and you call and DL loses. I'm ignoring side pot considerations because that makes this mess even more complicated. Assuming effective stacks of 570.

A happens with frequency (43/76)(96/123) fold fold
B happens with frequency (43/76)(27/123)(.2818) fold call DL win
C happens with frequency (43/76)(27/123)(.7182) fold call DL lose
D happens with frequency (33/76)(96/123)(.2887) call fold DL win
E happens with frequency (33/76)(96/123)(.7113) call fold DL lose
F happens with frequency (33/76)(27/123)(.1852) call call DL win
G happens with frequency (33/76)(27/123)(.8148) call call DL lose

(43/76)(96/123) + (43/76)(27/123)(.2818) + (43/76)(27/123)(.7182) + (33/76)(96/123)(.2887) + (33/76)(96/123)(.7113) + (33/76)(27/123)(.1852) + (33/76)(27/123)(.8148) = 1 as expected

EV(shove) = (43/76)(96/123)*125 + (43/76)(27/123)(.2818)*600 - (43/76)(27/123)(.7182)*570 + (33/76)(96/123)(.2887)*600 - (33/76)(96/123)(.7113)*570 + (33/76)(27/123)(.1852)*1155 - (33/76)(27/123)(.8148)*570

EV(shove) = -77.72

This is the conservative case where OP is squeezing 10% and defending only QQ+ AK.

In the case where OP squeezes 7% and defends JJ+ AQs+ AK we have

EV(shove) = (43/76)(51/87)*125 + (43/76)(36/87)(.2870)*600 - (43/76)(36/87)(.7130)*570 + (33/76)(51/87)(.2887)*600 - (33/76)(51/87)(.7113)*570 + (33/76)(36/87)(.1860)*1155 - (33/76)(36/87)(.8140)*570

EV(shove) = -117.25

We can see how easy it is to manipulate the math to convince ourselves some sketchy move is "fine" but if we remove the simplifications it's actually very not fine. This shove is pure spew once we account for the possibility UTG calls, even if we use OP's ridiculous MP 10% squeeze 2.2% defend ranges. If he squeezes even slightly less and/or defends just a little wider we are torching money.

And again it's worth noting it isn't enough just to be +EV, we need a shove to be better than flat calling.

I'm not pointing all this out to make anyone feel bad. People make mistakes playing poker. The real mistake is when looking at the hand doing a biased and unrealistic analysis to justify our bad play as correct rather than looking at the situation objectively, realizing you made a mistake, and not repeating it in the future.

EDIT: Left out the blinds which makes a small difference, add a couple bucks to each result. But I also neglected tipping, so remove a couple bucks for each result.

You have way too much time on your hands LOL. I said it’s not great, but it’s definitely not as bad as people claim it to be.

You have way too much time on your hands LOL. I said it’s not great, but it’s definitely not as bad as people claim it to be.

For once I agree with DL, it's loose but we've seen 6bm 3b with all kinds of crap and when he gets called he has 30%. Poker players love overanalysing trivial spots and ignoring the huge flaws in their game.

I think the people annoyed with OP mistakenly think he can be successful and he is "wasting" his potential. OP has no chance of long term success, so just enjoy the ride. I think he honestly should take your advice, gamble it up and an actual upswing could see him have actual fun.

Excellent work by Shai. Its funny how spewmonkey number 1 defends spazzmonkey number 2 and vica versa. Freaking legendary stuff.

Cold 4 bet jamming A10 in a live 2/5 fullring game. Lmao.

Thanks. I didn't write that post for them. Obviously they won't pay it any attention.

To DA and others, my point is not that it's the worst play ever but it is definitely bad, and half-assed attempts to justify it mathematically show either a misunderstanding of EV calculations or deliberate willingness to distort and cherrypick variables to justify bad play. More thorough analysis shows even granting 6BM being a total spew monkey, shoving ATs from the HJ is terrible. And I didn't even account for when CO BTN SB or BB wake up with a hand (or just correctly realize HJ is 4 betting light), nor did I account for the intermediate callers possibly calling.

If anything I have underestimated how bad the shove is. And to anyone who thinks a 15+BB error is no big deal, then what is? That's roughly two hours of solid play down the drain. More since our options are not just shove or fold, and calling in position vs a spewtard like 6BM is going to be the most profitable choice. If errors like this are no big deal to you, I have news for you: you are not good.

If we were heads up or clairvoyantly could predict everyone else folds it's fine, but that's not the case and it's ridiculous to assume a whale in UTG just meekly folds 100%.

It’s almost as if winning players take the time to study the math and don’t just jam everything and justify it as a merge.