Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Their passivity probably increases variance. They don't fold so pot sizes are huge, and their passivity means you often value own yourself when they just call down with the effective nuts.
Variance is just the square of the average difference between your sample mean and individual sessions. Very large wins also increase variance.
Kelvis is the 200+ BB/100 SD a guess or what? I've often thought the quoted 100BB/100 seems too low especially for LAGGY players like OP. My recorded SD is 111BB/100 and my games are pretty nitty so there aren't a lot of big wins or losses. My graph is also extremely linear in comparison to most of what I've seen. I'm not saying that's any kind of accomplishment but it has made me wonder if my linear graph is 111BB/100 then what is the real SD of players with good winrates but super jagged graphs? Gotta be significantly higher than 100BB/100.
Yes it is a guess. It's just based on the fact open sizes are huge, players don't fold so you create huge pots and people also straddle.
I mean just looking at my own sessions I can often 10x+ it and still get 3 callers. Now I have a 40bb pot with AQ which has quite an edge over my opponents but compare that to a 3x and a single call online. People also tend to fold a lot less to 3bets and multiway 3bet pots are not uncommon. And I play relatively nitty but I still play mostly big pots.
Now take someone like OP that frequently plays huge pots out of position and loves to bluff postflop. His SD is going to get through the roof. I'm not even arguing the 17bb/100, in fact a great player gets a heck of a lot more than that in a good live game, but given how he plays he is a smaller winner than he could be. I do think he can get $15/h or ~15bb/100 though (assuming 33 h/h)
Now do that variance calculation again and let's take the sample OP played, 100 hours, with a SD of 200.
Quote:
95% confidence interval (»?«) [-1803 BB, 2793 BB]
[-54.63 BB/100, 84.63 BB/100]
Probability of loss after 3300 hands (»?«) 33.3292%
So that's pretty meaningless. Notice the ~$4k or 1300bb is well within the confidence interval. Let's say OP cranks up volume and plays 60k hands per year. You get about a 3% chance of loss for the year.
But Kelvis, that doesn't sound so bad. That almost never happens. No, you're right. What will happen is 15+ BI downswings though, more frequent than you'd like. And OP said his biggest downswing was 6 buy ins, so imagine the raging tilt monkey when his entitled ass gets in one of those. I'm sure he will keep playing solid.