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Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals

07-21-2018 , 08:54 PM
Mirage,

IIRC he said earlier rent is $700.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
Wait so OP had the chance to learn from someone who has been there and done that, but chose not to? I am shocked.
all we need to know...
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Diablo
Mirage,

IIRC he said earlier rent is $700.

I assume thats per month, so around $175pw. You can get apartments in melb for as little as $250. Seems like a ******ed choice from OP. thats if hes not bull****ting I mean. OP and GF could easily afford that if they could afford $900 phones.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 09:18 PM
I pay $150/week rent.

25nl is going well so far. Played 3k hands now and $170 up. There are still some spots that I'm struggling with though, especially spots like this:

$25 effective
Hero raises $0.60 CO with AQcc
Villain 3bets $2.40 BB
Hero calls $2.40

Flop ($4.90) is 8s 7s 3c

Villain bets $2.50
Hero calls $2.50

Turn ($9.90) is 8s 7s 3c Th

Villain bets $4.75
Hero folds

Did I play this correctly?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slenderhusband
That's simply not correct. Making an assumption that one averages 500 hands an hour (which is a relatively conservative estimate), in order to make $10/h at NL50, the win-rate has to be 4bb/100. You definitely don't need to be among the top regulars of the stake, always at your A-game, and rigorously table-select to achieve higher win-rate. Even the regulars who do have lower win-rate likely achieve higher hourly by playing more tables.
Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated
You're an idiot. $10/hr is easily doable at $25nl for a very good player on Ignition. I make around $9/hr at $25nl and if I always played my A-game, I'd easily be achieving $12+/hr.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this point. Win rates tend to get exaggerated on internet forums. People always add a few extra bb/100 here and there (much like people add a couple of inches to their height or a few thousand more to their income on their online dating profiles). Once you get a huge sample size (1 million+ hands) and take into account you're playing for a living (so some frustration/mistakes will creep in from time to time - we're only human), 4bb/100 is a very good win rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
It's extremely hard to find a backer for live cash games. Firstly, there's the money issue. A 10 buyin bankroll at 1/3 NL is 3k and not many people are prepared to risk that to stake someone. Secondly, there's the trust issue. Unlike tournaments, I don't have proof which says exactly what I bought in for and cashed out every session, so they'd have to have a lot of trust in me. And thirdly, there's convincing someone of your skill level. The majority of people in this thread seem to think that I'm a massive whale that just donates stack after stack, simply because I play a much more LAG style than they're used to seeing, and it comes across as extremely spewy in their eyes. And people aren't going to back me when that's the perception they have of me.
You shouldn't need a backer for something like 1/3 if you're such a big crusher as you say you are. Work a job for 6 months, save up, quit that job and go crush 1/3. But you don't do this, because I think you know deep down you can't beat it (although not saying you couldn't if you completely altered your mindset).

Quote:
It's actually not easy to find the correct preflop ranges online. You go on 5 different sites and you'll get 5 different ranges. One site says to open 30% of hands on the BTN, another site says to open 60% of hands on the BTN. There's so much contradictory information out there. I have to cross-reference heaps of different sources and often just use my own intuition to determine which ranges seem to be the best. And that's just opening ranges. Wait until you deal with "what hands should I 3bet in MP vs UTG?" You'll get a million different answers for that too, and you have to cross-reference heaps of different sources and come up with your own educated guesses as to what your 3betting ranges should be in various different positions. Then there's cold-calling ranges too: one site says that you should be calling 3x raises with a wide range of low pocket pairs, suited connectors, suited broadways, suited Aces, even a few offsuit broadways like AQo. Another site says to literally never cold-call anything and to play your entire preflop range as a 3bet or fold. They're just polar opposites. Everything contradicts everything. It's so frustrating because I really want to learn a solid preflop strategy, but I don't know who to trust and who to ignore.
Well if there was a single fool-proof strategy, everyone would already be using it. Generally speaking, if there's an easy way of making money, someone more intelligent than you and I would have discovered it and exploited it already.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this point. Win rates tend to get exaggerated on internet forums. People always add a few extra bb/100 here and there (much like people add a couple of inches to their height or a few thousand more to their income on their online dating profiles).
I was one of the bigger winners on PTR at $100 and $200nlfr prior to BF. I doubt anyone who knows me would doubt me. You can also search my posts in the micro forum in the stats thread to see my wr . Sorry you're a loser at online poker
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 09:43 PM
Range charts vary so much because they're targeting different games, environments, and player skill levels. What works in Vegas vs LA vs Melbourne vs online are all different, and what works at 1/2 and 1/3 vs 2/5 vs 5/T+ are very different.

But if you know a bit about the environment and players skill level it's pretty easy to come up with solid ranges to use
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 09:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
Well if there was a single fool-proof strategy, everyone would already be using it. Generally speaking, if there's an easy way of making money, someone more intelligent than you and I would have discovered it and exploited it already.
I disagree. We've pretty much solved hyper turbo SnGs, yet there's still a lot of money to be made from those games because the vast majority of people don't follow the push/fold charts correctly.

Just because a gold mine exists, doesn't mean everyone is going to mine it. Some will, but many won't.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I disagree. We've pretty much solved hyper turbo SnGs, yet there's still a lot of money to be made from those games because the vast majority of people don't follow the push/fold charts correctly.

Just because a gold mine exists, doesn't mean everyone is going to mine it. Some will, but many won't.
You disagree but argue how hard it is to find appropriate ranges? I don't get it.

And hyper turbo SNGs are not "solved" in any sense. We know the Nash equilibrium for heads up push/fold spots. That's it. And using the Nash equilibrium is generally not a great idea since most people overfold and undershove.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Range charts vary so much because they're targeting different games, environments, and player skill levels. What works in Vegas vs LA vs Melbourne vs online are all different, and what works at 1/2 and 1/3 vs 2/5 vs 5/T+ are very different.

But if you know a bit about the environment and players skill level it's pretty easy to come up with solid ranges to use
I'm looking specifically for range charts to use at 25nl and 50nl zone on Ignition, if they exist.

Also I'm pretty sure we have solved preflop ranges for 6max hypers up to 25bbs (beyond push/fold territory). We might not have solved the postflop play that ensues though.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 10:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I pay $150/week rent.

25nl is going well so far. Played 3k hands now and $170 up. There are still some spots that I'm struggling with though, especially spots like this:

$25 effective
Hero raises $0.60 CO with AQcc
Villain 3bets $2.40 BB
Hero calls $2.40

Flop ($4.90) is 8s 7s 3c

Villain bets $2.50
Hero calls $2.50

Turn ($9.90) is 8s 7s 3c Th

Villain bets $4.75
Hero folds

Did I play this correctly?
Seems 100% std to me. Wp. Gj for not spewing.

Wrt to your other stats. Yeah, they wont converge over that small sample. If you get to like minimum 50k maybe i can look at them.

On ignition, moreso on Zone, you can get away with being really tight and watch money flow in without too much variance as long as you dont spew or donk off your stack. Might lose a little EV here and there but you’re not in a position to be opening/3betting marginal hands
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 10:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I'm looking specifically for range charts to use at 25nl and 50nl zone on Ignition, if they exist.

Also I'm pretty sure we have solved preflop ranges for 6max hypers up to 25bbs (beyond push/fold territory). We might not have solved the postflop play that ensues though.
I would ask Minatorr or Xenoblade.

I'm 100% sure multiway preflop is not solved. I have a math degree for whatever that's worth.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 10:42 PM
LOL at "going pro" and still needing a range chart. Poker is not paint by numbers.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 10:48 PM
well its nice to know optimal opening ranges by positions, not that you need any of that in your insanely soft games
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
LOL at "going pro" and still needing a range chart. Poker is not paint by numbers.
So you think you know all your preflop ranges perfectly then?

Which hands do you squeeze from the SB against a UTG open and CO call? How does this change if the BTN also calls? Which hands do you 3bet in BB vs SB? If BTN is a competent LAG that 3bets you, which hands do you 4bet in the CO with?

They're not easy questions, but they do have answers, and I'm sure that there are a few solid online regs out there that can give those answers to me. I just need to keep looking.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 11:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I disagree. We've pretty much solved hyper turbo SnGs, yet there's still a lot of money to be made from those games because the vast majority of people don't follow the push/fold charts correctly.

Just because a gold mine exists, doesn't mean everyone is going to mine it. Some will, but many won't.
So why arent you playing those games then?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alobar
So why arent you playing those games then?
1) I have been playing those games quite a bit actually.
2) They're high variance though, since you're constantly flipping for stacks. It's even worse than PLO variance.
3) There's not as much action. You often have to wait for games to start and you can often only play 1-2 games at a time for any given level, unless you're willing to mix things up between like a $10 hyper and a $50 hyper, which makes the $10 hyper seem pointless in comparison.
4) I don't know the perfect strategy though. I just know that it exists. Kind of like fixed limit holdem: I know that we've solved HUFL, but I can't play perfect HUFL.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 12:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
1) I have been playing those games quite a bit actually.
2) They're high variance though, since you're constantly flipping for stacks. It's even worse than PLO variance.
3) There's not as much action. You often have to wait for games to start and you can often only play 1-2 games at a time for any given level, unless you're willing to mix things up between like a $10 hyper and a $50 hyper, which makes the $10 hyper seem pointless in comparison.
4) I don't know the perfect strategy though. I just know that it exists. Kind of like fixed limit holdem: I know that we've solved HUFL, but I can't play perfect HUFL.
Why are you so convinced hyper turbo SNGs are "solved"? They emphatically are not. If they were, then cash games would also be solved for the corresponding blind levels. There's no difference besides ICM considerations which if anything makes cash games easier to solve.

People have come up with strategies that utilize suggested push/fold charts when blinds get low but there is no Nash equilibria multiway. If one player changes his strategy the optimal strategy changes for the rest.

I used to mass table turbo SNGs and sometimes hyper turbos and it was very profitable and the strategy once I figured it out was pretty easy, hence why I could play up to 30 tables. But it wasnt "solved". I just played super tight in early levels to simplify multitabling and trained push/fold ranges with SNG Wizard.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 12:30 AM
Cash games pretty much are solved for 25bbs too. Multiway pots should rarely happen if people are playing optimally.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 12:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
Cash games pretty much are solved for 25bbs too. Multiway pots should rarely happen if people are playing optimally.
They start at 25BB and people's only options are push/fold? Nah. That's a toy game you're describing and I don't think even that is solved. Do you have links or references to support any of this or you just somehow know that cash games are mathematically solved for 25BB?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 01:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
CO I'm opening QJo and KTo but folding QTo.
BTN I'm opening JTo and K8o but folding T9o and K7o.
(200/500nl player here, prob should mind my business but can't help pile onto the heap of advice that will be ignored)

QTo in CO is very standard open (also can be opened in the HJ). why do you spew with wild ranges live then nit it up online? should be the opposite if anything

FWIW you could be opening T9o in the CO on a lot of tables profitably. Open folding T9o OTB is so painful to hear about it makes me want to quit reading this thread.

Spoiler:
But we all know there's nothing that could make any one of us quit reading this thread
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 03:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgiggity
QTo in CO is very standard open (also can be opened in the HJ). why do you spew with wild ranges live then nit it up online? should be the opposite if anything

FWIW you could be opening T9o in the CO on a lot of tables profitably. Open folding T9o OTB is so painful to hear about it makes me want to quit reading this thread.
+1

I open all that stuff online and I'm a massive nit.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 06:21 AM
Dunno about you guys, but over 60-80k+ sample of QTo from CO it was basically BE for me at 200NL. Blinds are super squeeze happy and so is the BTN at 200NLz. Maybe in weaker fields/stakes you can turn a profit but against a tough table where SB is 3-betting CO 8-14%, same for BTN, and there’s 1-3 regs otb/sb/bb when you open, + rake, you arent going to show a profit

Yes, QTo is part of a “completely std” CO range. I know. I opened it for half a million hands, everyone opens it, every site advocates for it to be in a 20-25% RFI. But it’s basically BE, and im sure for a good amount of regs who arent in the top of their pool it’s -EV

The main reason why people open BE hands like these is that they get more action on their premiums and so people cant narrow our range down to really strong hands when we RFI (like 14% from CO). But none of that matters on anon poker and poker zone.

Broken, id say the best Ignition reg here on 2+2, basically agrees that most of his hands are BE and said something along the lines of that, and that he just opens it for the sake of it and for the stream.

Checking my database for every hand’s EV shone a few new lights on me. I mean, it’s pretty obvious in hindsight but for example SCs have very low profitably, especially the weaker ones/suited gappers. The big big money makes and basically 90% of your profit is 66+, A10s+, AJo+, KJs+. Everything else is just slightly +EV, near neutral, slightly -EV or just flat out folds (73o, etc). Obv we are trying to maximize our marginal spots and minimize our losses as much as possible, but people way overestimate the EV of hands of say 54s, 75s, 76s, QJo, J10o, etc

Last edited by Minatorr; 07-22-2018 at 06:30 AM.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 07:03 AM
With 16% 3bet the shredder needs to run overtime because it can't handle all the money it has to destroy.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-22-2018 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated
I was one of the bigger winners on PTR at $100 and $200nlfr prior to BF. I doubt anyone who knows me would doubt me. You can also search my posts in the micro forum in the stats thread to see my wr . Sorry you're a loser at online poker
I am a winner at online poker, not sure how you came to that conclusion. I cba to search through all the posts in that forum to find your stats. How big is your sample? You can't be that good if you had to drop down from 200nl to 25nl over the last few years, no offence.

Anyway my general point was that win rates get inflated on forums and realistic long term achievable win rates are lower than people think. Otherwise a lot more people would be beating the games and moving up, mid stakes wouldn't be dying and so many pros wouldn't be looking to quit poker over the last few years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I disagree. We've pretty much solved hyper turbo SnGs, yet there's still a lot of money to be made from those games because the vast majority of people don't follow the push/fold charts correctly.

Just because a gold mine exists, doesn't mean everyone is going to mine it. Some will, but many won't.
Fair enough. If there's so much money to be made from those games, I assume you're playing them as much as you possibly can?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote

      
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